AshXC

[AshXC @knowledgecrush]

One lake, three digital identities:

🇺🇸 #LakeAmerica
🇨🇦 #LakeOntario
🌍 Both names
Trump’s order changed a U.S. database, which changed Google and Apple Maps. It did not change Canadian or international naming—and most Americans oppose it.

https://t.co/4z4tKtLFNn

[AshXC @knowledgecrush]

Influence
Stock: Raise the risk-free rate. High-valuation growth stocks will be under pressure firstly
Gold: The logic of pricing will shift to "the tool of dollar credit hedging and tail risk avoidance"
Emerging market: Facing capital outflow and pressure of currency devaluation

[AshXC @knowledgecrush]

Multiple long-term government bonds raise alarms, global stock markets face stress tests

Long-term government bond markets in developed economies are experiencing accelerated sell-offs, with yields in multiple markets refreshing decades highs.

Source: https://t.co/CEZrUXQfM0

[AshXC @knowledgecrush]

Multiple long-term government bonds raise alarms, global stock markets face stress tests

Long-term government bond markets in developed economies are experiencing accelerated sell-offs, with yields in multiple markets refreshing decades highs.

Source: https://t.co/CEZrUXQfM0

[AshXC @knowledgecrush]

@charliebilello When the bubble of AI boom bursts, the situation will be even worse

[AshXC @knowledgecrush]

@IdolRecommend Before the Xmas

[AshXC @knowledgecrush]

The semiconductor bottleneck begins before the chip.

ASML patterns it.
AMAT, Lam and TEL deposit and etch it.
KLA checks it.
Materials keep the fab running.
And the manufacturing loop may repeat 50–100+ times.
I mapped the layer most people skip:
https://t.co/37XGVLyhAy

[AshXC @knowledgecrush]

A front-end rally alone is not proof.

The loop is “on” only if financial conditions ease broadly. If inflation and employment both soften, that is fundamental repricing—not a policy feedback loop.

Full analysis:
https://t.co/4Z571gzcUJ 5/5

[AshXC @knowledgecrush]

But the loop can reverse.

If hike odds fall, short real yields decline, the dollar softens, credit spreads tighten and equities rise, the restraint begins to disappear.

Sticky inflation + stable employment could then revive the case for a hike. 4/5

[AshXC @knowledgecrush]

Why hold if inflation is still too high?

Because markets had already delivered some restraint. Treasury yields rose as investors priced a more restrictive Fed.

Expected tightening can affect the economy before the Fed moves. 3/5

[AshXC @knowledgecrush]

Threatening a hike can make the hike unnecessary.

Convincing markets that no hike is coming can make one necessary.

That is the feedback loop hiding in the July FOMC minutes. 1/5

[AshXC @knowledgecrush]

The headline was a 9–3 vote to hold.

The more important signal: “many” participants thought tightening would likely be necessary if inflation failed to decline.

Three immediate hawks. A larger group of conditional hawks. 2/5

[AshXC @knowledgecrush]

The Fed’s paradox:

Markets price a hike → yields rise → conditions tighten → the Fed can wait.

Markets price it out → conditions ease → the Fed may need to act.

Don’t watch hike odds alone. Watch real yields, USD, spreads and stocks together.
https://t.co/NeBRhUXIKW

[AshXC @knowledgecrush]

@vladtenev When owner find they cannot earn money, rebel comes🤫