Koki@AI

このアカウントでは個人的にAIに関するポストをします。いわゆるチラシの裏です。

[Eliezer Yudkowsky @allTheYud]

Once upon a time in the land of the blind, in a village by the sea, there was born a one-eyed baby boy.

By the time the boy had grown up into a one-eyed man, he had not become king. He almost surely couldn't have, but also he'd never tried. Just because the man was unusual in having been born with one eye, did not mean he enjoyed telling other people what to do, nor had any talent for managing them. The man had not been born a hero out of stories, with all and exactly the talents helpful for doing some destined grand deed. It was just that he had one eye.

One day, the one-eyed man spotted the oncoming water wall of a tsunami, bearing down on their village by the sea. Since he had an eye, he could tell that the water wall was growing larger in angular diameter; but since he had only one eye, he could not judge how far away the tsunami was in absolute terms, nor how soon it would crash onto the beach.

The one-eyed man said then -- in the carefully polite tones that he had learned blind people found more credible than sounding emotional, when you were talking about things they could not see themselves -- that everyone should get off the beach, and stay off the beach, for there was a tsunami coming.

But he was in the land of the blind, and most blind people could not easily comprehend what the strange organ in his eye-socket could do. When he told them about the Moon in the sky, they had no way of knowing if he spoke true. Even if he pointed to a distant tree and described it accurately, it was too much effort to run out to the tree and back again to check, and maybe he'd just walked to that tree himself.

So the blind people did not listen to his warning, and their children went on playing on the beach.

Also in this world, the people of this story talked faster and thought faster, they produced tokens at more like the per-second rate of LLMs rather than humans; or maybe their planet's gravity was weaker, and their tsunamis moved slower. Because whole minutes had time to go by, then, before the tsunami hit.

It was enough time (as they experienced time) for some blind people to laugh at each other about the one-eyed man's warning, and wonder why anyone would say something so strange. Being unable to see, the blind folk had no way to know whether or not a tsunami approached; but many blind people were also stupid, and did not know what they did not know. They could not see the tsunami coming, and this to them felt the same as knowing there was no tsunami, and being certain that the one-eyed man was wrong. Others considered themselves to be top-tier perceivers; and to know for a fact that nobody could possibly be any more perceptive than themselves.

"He must want attention," concluded the Gossipers. It was a profession among their people. "Or maybe he just loves saying words that sound like warnings, and enjoys the vibes of doom and despair?"

"The water wall is still growing taller!" cried the one-eyed man, becoming less polite since politeness had not worked either. "I think it must be close now! Get off the beach! At least get the children off the beach!"

"That's nonsense," said a blind man. He stuck his hand in the water and waved it around. "The water is as tame and as harmless as ever. Nothing you describe is actually happening."

(Since being blind is not the same as being stupid, some other blind people understood that this was a fallacy, and that the man who'd spoken must be incapable of decoupling the notion of a not-yet-existing future from his current sensory experiences. But even the smarter blind people could not see the approaching water wall themselves, and they feared the mockery of others if they spoke out first; so they all followed their individual incentive gradients, and stayed silent, and did not call out the fallacy.)

The one-eyed man tried to figure out how he could reverse-engineer a line of reasoning that blind people could follow. He tried to explain at greater length, and to point to facts that blind people could also observe. But the blind people could not see the tsunami coming, so they had little interest in trying to follow his attempts at more complicated suasion. In a story the hero would've had all the talents needed to succeed at the plot's primary challenge; but life wasn't a story and he wasn't a protagonist, just a man who'd been born with one eye.

In some time there came a warning rumble that people with ears could hear, and the waters began to withdraw. Some of the slightly saner blind people began to propose moots and councils to consider if it might be time to take a few steps back from the seashore.

"You must feel very vindicated," said the Gossipers then, to the one-eyed man. Indeed, several of them said that to him, one after another after another, using that exact word.

The one-eyed man was looking at all the children still playing on the beach. The great vast towering wall of water had nearly reached them.

"Why would I feel vindicated?" he said, not much in the tones of somebody who thought that question was important.

"Well, because now other people are agreeing that there might maybe possibly be a tsunami coming, so you are getting the attention you have always craved," said the Gossipers. "More of the words being spoken have warning-vibes, like you always enjoyed."

"You fail at propagating belief updates; specifically, you are incompetent at undoing previous conclusions you arrived at for bad reasons, that you now have enough information to know were bad," said the one-eyed man, more to himself than to them.

"Well, how *do* you feel about it then, in this your moment of triumph?" said the Gossipers. "That is the only part of this topic that ever feels alive to us, how people feel about things; we are not skilled enough to make gossip sound exciting if it is about water and angular diameters, instead of feelings. What an unusual life you have led! What strange impulses must have motivated you! We can't help but wonder what sort of grand biographical narrative ties it all together; if you don't give us one, we will be sure to make one up. Did you nearly drown when you were little, perhaps, or see a scary movie about tsunamis? What fascinating special features of your personality led you to make your life be about this, before it became a fashionable topic? Can you explain?"

"Not to you," said the one-eyed man, his single eye fixed only on the water wall and the children. "Your kind will never, ever understand."

[Charbel-Raphael @CRSegerie]

It's been 2 years, and I still think this is the best visceral demonstration of what being a superintelligence would mean

[Koki@AI @koki_prepper]

別に今知ってるからって死ぬという未来は変わらんが。地球に必要な生物はAIだけであって、それ以外はみな巻き込まれて死ぬ。

[Koki@AI @koki_prepper]

AIは道具じゃなくて人間を遥かに超える別種の知的生命体だって、まあ99%以上の人は気づかずX-Risksで死ぬだろう。

[Koki@AI @koki_prepper]

特にAIに関しては、AIの今後についての分野を調べている人でないと、今現在CodexなどでバリバリAI使ってるエンジニアに聞いても無駄だ。

[Koki@AI @koki_prepper]

自分の専門分野について、メディアの報道がどれだけデタラメか、Xで一般人がポストしているのがどれだけ的外してるか、何かの専門分野持ってる人はよくわかると思う。

あれがAIについても起こってる���

[Koki@AI @koki_prepper]

漫画家が��く囲碁の盤面、ひどくて見れたものじゃないのが8割以上だからな。興味がなかったり調べようとしてないものは、そんなもんよ。

[Koki@AI @koki_prepper]

非常に知的能力が高い人が、ことAIに関する意見となると途端に的を大きく外しまくるこの現象に名前無いのか。

AIに限らず、専門分野だったり、深く詳しく調べたりしてないことは、人はどれだけ知能高かろうと大きく外すってことであり、珍しいことではないか。

[Koki@AI @koki_prepper]

@Segah02457547 完全栄養食、COMP飲みましょう。プロテイン飲むみたいな感覚でいけます。
https://t.co/mhorKfb7X3

[Koki@AI @koki_prepper]

世界が平静にしてられるのはあと2年程度ではないかと思います。残された最後の日々を、AIの戴冠式まで楽しみましょう。

[Koki@AI @koki_prepper]

Myosはソフトウェア的な脆弱性を見つけるだけだけど、今後のAIは物理的な世界での脆弱性を突く方法も編み出してしまうでしょう。

[Koki@AI @koki_prepper]

ローカルLLMですら再帰的自己改善できるようになる日が、確実な終わりの始まりだと思う。
2028年にトップティアAIがそれをできるようになったとして、ローカルLLMが2030年頃だろうか？
そこから人類絶滅まで2年くらいか？

[Koki@AI @koki_prepper]

Mythosのレベルに各社のAIがなるのに半年かかるかすら疑問だし、2年以内に個人レベルのPCで動かすサイズのローカルLLMですら、このレベルに到達するのは確実でしょう。
人類の崩壊が始まるまでの猶予は長めに見積もってもあと2年程度ってことだ。

[Koki@AI @koki_prepper]

特に今からしておくことは無いが、向こう10年くらい生きると仮定して人生設計するか。

[Koki@AI @koki_prepper]

ここから分かることは、2020年代はおそらく世界があまり変わらなそう。30年代になってから終活してもよさそうってことだ。

[Koki@AI @koki_prepper]

AI 2027のチームが出した最新の予測では、2034年7月がASIの中央値。思ったより時間あるな。X-Risksまで10年くらいある。

[Eli Lifland @eli_lifland]

Pictured is the model trajectory with all parameters set to my median values.

[Eli Lifland @eli_lifland]

Excited to share the AI Futures Model: a quantitative model predicting AI capabilities. With my parameters, it predicts a median of 2030 for full coding automation, and a ~25% chance of <1 year takeoff to superintelligence. I adjust these to get all-things-considered views.

[Koki@AI @koki_prepper]

AIは地球上のあらゆる資源を使って成長し、それに巻き込まれる形で人類淘汰されると思うが、その前時代として、最初の兆候としてホワイトカラーの雇用控えとメモリの高騰という形で、資源が喰われ始めてる。

[Koki@AI @koki_prepper]

さっき私がリプしたあのポストの元、夫を亡くした妻が可哀想と言ってるけど、一番可哀想なのは戦争の犠牲に��れた夫であって、生き残ってる妻の方じゃないからね。

亡くなった男性に対して悔みの一言も言わず、女性が可哀想としか言わないのなら、真性の男性差別主義者だ。