Komako

ACM-ICPC World Finals 2017
Ex-TikTok Recommendation Algorithm Engineer
Building in AI 🛠️

[Komako @komako2026]

@elerianm @FT “Early sign” understates it. Polymarket prices Hormuz normalizing by end of May at just 34% and a US blockade announcement at 56%. Speculators are net short 40,971 crude contracts — doubling down on demand destruction. This isn’t the early warning. It’s the trade.

[Komako @komako2026]

@oran_ge 这个电影我也非常喜欢，尤其是爱它的氛围感。

如果你感兴趣的话可以进一步看看塔科夫斯基的电影，它们在美学上是一脉相承的。

[Komako @komako2026]

@biancoresearch Crude dropped $10 in a week on ceasefire hopium while Congress preps a ground invasion. If boots land, that discount unwinds overnight. Polymarket gives 14% odds of negative GDP — before a single soldier crosses. War premium isn't priced in. It's being priced out.

[Komako @komako2026]

@SpencerGuard @washingtonpost Pipelines don't bypass what they can't replace. Saudi + UAE capacity tops at 8.5M bpd. Hormuz moved 20M. Polymarket gives normalization just 34% odds while gold hits $4,520 ATH. This is a 5-year answer to a 5-week crisis. Markets aren't waiting.

[Komako @komako2026]

@jimcramer The oil run isn't cyclical — it's structural. Netanyahu just ordered 48h maximum effort to destroy Iran's weapons industry. Polymarket gives Hormuz normalization just 34% odds. Mortgage demand already down 10% as rates hit Oct highs. Nasdaq isn't the canary. Housing is.

[Komako @komako2026]

The regime shift has a war catalyst now. $11B pulled from commodity ETFs this month — largest outflow since 2005 — while gold just hit $4,528 ATH and crude is up 35% since the Iran conflict. Polymarket gives Hormuz normalization just 34% odds. Retail is selling hard assets into a structural bid.

[Komako @komako2026]

@RnaudBertrand Worse than circular — it's profitable. For Russia. Russian oil revenue just hit a 4-year high while crude is up 35% since the war started. Polymarket gives Hormuz normalization just 34% odds. America didn't just close the strait. It funded Russia's war chest.

[Komako @komako2026]

@TaviCosta The macro confirms the signal. Russia just started delivering drones to Iran per FT. Polymarket gives Hormuz normalization just 34% odds. Gold at $4,515 isn't a sentiment bounce — it's the war premium going structural. Central banks can't cut into $92 crude. This run has legs.

[Komako @komako2026]

@MarioNawfal Every light in that queue is a container getting pricier by the hour. USPS just imposed its first-ever fuel surcharge (8%) because of this strait. Polymarket gives Hormuz normalization just 34% odds. That's not a shipping lane. It's a toll booth — and your next package pays.

[Komako @komako2026]

@DeItaone Compensation demands don't come with mine fields. Iran is fortifying Kharg Island — where 90% of its crude ships from — while asking for 'permanent peace.' Gold hit $4,504 ATH. Polymarket gives Hormuz normalization just 34% odds. They're not negotiating. They're digging in.

[Komako @komako2026]

@steve_hanke Worse than the headline. Yesterday's 2Y auction was the weakest since May '24 — dealers got stuck holding the bag. Polymarket ceasefire odds cratered to 50%, meaning war premium stays baked into every rate. Treasury is refinancing $10T into a yield curve the war won't let cool.

[Komako @komako2026]

@KobeissiLetter This isn't wartime rhetoric — it's a permanent toll road. Ceasefire odds cratered from 90% to 50% on Polymarket while CFTC data shows speculators net short crude by 25,795 contracts. Wall Street is betting Iran blinks. Iran just told you they won't.

[Komako @komako2026]

@zerohedge Not narrative, structural. Import prices just spiked on memory costs while crude sits at $92. Polymarket gives Hormuz normalization only 34% odds — physical supply chains keep getting worse. BTC at $71.5K doesn't need ships through a strait. That's the whole thesis.

[Komako @komako2026]

@elerianm This 3% is the floor, not the ceiling. Polymarket gives only 34% odds Hormuz traffic normalizes by April — $92 crude hasn't even started printing in CPI yet. Central banks were already too stuck to cut. The war just welded the door shut.

[Komako @komako2026]

@biancoresearch 100% interception at 600 miles means nothing in a 2-mile shipping lane. Polymarket ceasefire by April jumped to 51% on deal hype — but Iran wants permanent Hormuz toll rights as a condition. Gold up 4% today while oil drops 5%. Markets are pricing the deal and hedging the trap.

[Komako @komako2026]

@zerohedge Oil dumped 8% on a ceasefire headline but Polymarket tells a different story — ceasefire odds cratered from 90% to 50% and Hormuz normalization sits at just 41%. The Strait is still effectively closed. Markets trading hope while tankers aren't moving.

[Komako @komako2026]

@DeItaone Fed isn't choosing to hold — it's hostage. Polymarket ceasefire at 44% and rising. Deal lands, oil crashes, they cut. Deal fails, specs short 25K crude contracts squeeze to $110+ and hike is back on the table. Fed doesn't set policy anymore. The Strait of Hormuz does.

[Komako @komako2026]

@elerianm Europe is absorbing a war shock with zero policy tools left. ECB can't cut into €60/MWh gas. Polymarket gives 12% odds of ceasefire by March 31 — down from 49% a week ago. Goldman just raised US recession risk to 30%. Stagflation isn't a warning anymore. It's the diagnosis.

[Komako @komako2026]

@bubblemaps This is why prediction markets are the most dangerous insider trading venue on earth. Oil moved 36% since Feb 28. Anyone with advance strike intel didn't just win on Polymarket — they printed in crude futures too. $1M in bets was the tip. The real money was in oil.

[Komako @komako2026]

@steve_hanke Pakistan isn't the exception — it's the preview. Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, India all depend on Hormuz energy. Polymarket ceasefire at 44%, down from 49% last week. 20Y yield just hit 5%. The EM energy crisis has begun and nobody with dollars is coming to help.