Komoruns 🗯

[Chainlink @chainlink]

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[Chainlink @chainlink]

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[Komoruns 🗯 @komoruns]

Is $ena ethena still can bullish? @aixbt_agent

[Komoruns 🗯 @komoruns]

@BinanceUS @cz_binance We trust in binance & CZ, Keep up the good work

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

What are the key risks for the week?

- Debt discussions
- Re-pricing of Fed hiking cycle
- Jobs data

Debt Discussions
McCarthy and Biden came to an agreement over the weekend which saw concessions on both sides

-The agreement's spending caps target Federal programmes other than Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and the military, such as education, scientific research, and border protection.

- The limitations would not directly reduce spending but rather slow its growth in comparison to inflation and the economy.

- This agreement allows both parties to claim a type of victory: Republicans can call it a budget cut because expenditure would grow more slowly than it would otherwise. Democrats can also claim that they prevented genuine cuts.

- According to NYT analysis of the proposal, it could reduce spending by $55 bln dollars next year

Fed re-pricing
- Traders last week had repriced ther outlook for the July Fed meeting.

- Swaps showed a quater point hike was fully priced in for the July meeting. Prior to that, as the debt talks had stalled on May 19th, Fed swaps actually downgraded June hike odds, with the likelyhood of a July hike out of the window.

- Fed's Mester following the PCE data that was hotter than expected at 4.4% vs the prior of 4.2% said "todays inflation data suggests the Fed has more work to do".

- CME Fedwatch currently shows a 60% probabilty of the Fed raing rates in June by 25 BPS, from a probaility of 25% the prior week. (Figure 1)

- May 22nd, Fed's Bullard also mentioned last week that "the Fed will have to go higher on the policy rate, perhaps 50 BPS more hiking this year" implying two more hikes, one 25 BPS in June and one 25 BPS in July. Stock markets didn't take too kindly to the comment with the S&P 500 declining. (Figure 2)

Jobs Data
- JOLTS, ADP and NFP will provide clearer indications for swaps pricing in Fed hikes. The latter of the three has averaged a monthly gain of 290k over the last 6 months according to the BLS (Bureau Labor Statisitcs). Although data has been fairly robust, it's the initial volatility that day traders will want to know how the markets will react.

- In the past with the hiking cycle at it's termnial velocity, strong jobs data led to declines in stocks in expecatation the Fed would continue its Mario jumps. Now we've seen good data, is actually good. - The expectation is if the jobs market remains strong when the Fed has reached it's peak, the less likelihood of a deep recession.
Unless Average Hourly Earnings data is stronger than expected like it was previously at 4.4% compared to the prior of 4.2%, which lead to traders expecting the Fed to continue their rate hiking cycle (Figure 3), then the markets could rally like it did in April when Average Earnings was down paired with robust NFP. (Figure 4) Bear in mind, that was Good Friday, with trading sparce till the early close, so the reaction would have been bigger.

- However, with the recent JOLTS data we had at the begining of May, the idea of good data is good, and bad data is bad, may still hold true. JOLTS data was worse than expected which led to the DXY AND S&P 500 declining. In the past, if bad was out, it would have sent the S&P 500 flying with the DXY declining.

So what could you expect for Friday?
Tony will go through NFP prep this Friday to give a breakdown of what to expect at 8 AM ET Friday LIVE! Click below to watch.
https://t.co/4FdryK5Eyx

[Kevin Sailly @KevinSailly_]

Trading =

80% Waiting
10% Entry
10% Exit

Waiting bukan cuma sekedar nunggu, tapi ada proses persiapan, analisa dan research informasi

Sampai timing setup yang tepat sesuai dengan risk tolerance yang kita bisa absorb 🔥

[Komoruns 🗯 @komoruns]

@brigita_raissa Ada presiden iran mau ke penvil

[Komoruns 🗯 @komoruns]

@KahfiDharm94 @hoteliercrypto drama debt ceiling emang selalu gini bro, zaman obama goverment sampe di shutdown tapi ujung2nya ya dinaikin juga, karna baik demokrat atau republikan gaada yg mau negaranya default

[Komoruns 🗯 @komoruns]

@widyaprmdta @civildissident_ @sosmedkeras Amiinn

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: Bittrex #crypto exchange files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

[Komoruns 🗯 @komoruns]

@hoteliercrypto Bagaimana pendapat bli soal Hbar dan atom bli? Mohon pendapatnya

[Federal Reserve @federalreserve]

#FedFAQ: Is FedNow replacing cash? Is it a central bank digital currency?
No. FedNow is not related to a digital currency. FedNow is a payments service the Federal Reserve is making available for banks and credit unions to transfer funds. (1/6) https://t.co/ACBjfEhR4A

[Swapna Kumar Panda @swapnakpanda]

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[Pratham @Prathkum]

Git is difficult to understand!

But you don't need to learn everything.

Learn these 10 Git commands because you'll be using them 99% of the time.

[Nikki Siapno @NikkiSiapno]

📌 Git Commands Cheatsheet 🎨

[Pratham @Prathkum]

Learn for free: (a powerpack thread)

1. HTML & CSS
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[Vala Afshar @ValaAfshar]

the fastest route is not always a straight line

[Komoruns 🗯 @komoruns]

@1xBet_Eng Mbappe still sign with PSG lol

[One Piece @onepiecedaiIys]

One Piece Wallpaper Thread 🏴‍☠️