you want permissionless systems when the government rugs you
and you want permissioned systems when other people rug you
how about you just stop playing stupid games
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👇 Links + more in thread
I dont usually share deep defi thoughts in a bull market cause theres too much noise but ill share this 👇
I believe Ethena just changed the entire dynamic of our crypto cycle
sUSDe makes extremely high yield from a basis trade on the funding rate of futures, it is a great structured product wrapped up in the form of a yield bearing stablecoin
up until now it was mostly just another product, but since AAVE has added sUSDe as collateral, and most likely many other major defi platforms follow suit... this changes much more than many realize
sUSDe enabled as collateral now creates another broad basis trade with every other stablecoin USDT/USDC/DAI etc
the broader basis trade is that you can now deposit sUSDe (which is earning lets say 30% for this example) and borrow USDC/USDT/DAI/xxxstable for a rate of 10%pa (for example) and sell it for sUSDe, making a 20% basis trade...
what this means is that this arb will eventually close, people will contintually borrow stables at lower than sUSDe rate and sell it for sUSDe .. on leverage
the borrow demand on these stables will send the borrow rates so high that it basically gets to the same as what native sUSDe is paying, since that is when there is no more basis trade to profit on
that means that at scale as this broader trade plays out you can expect lending yield on every other major stablecoin to increase to about what sUSDe is paying
what are some high level impacts of this?
1. you can hold normal stables and lend them for almost the same rate as you would get using Ethena, but only be exposed to USDC and AAVE risk while doing it
2. the cost of spot leverage this cycle will be much higher than any other cycle, leading to either more mass liquidations or less spot leverage
3. sUSDe is now inherently leveraged, increasing both risk and impact of depeg
also take into account as the bullrun progresses, perp funding rates will skyrocket and consequently so will native sUSDe yeild, meaning this broader trade could very potentially see stables having lending yields of well >50%pa while crypto is booming
now it will take time for this broader trade to play out as sUSDe supply is still small compared to the rest of stables however, as this trade is lucrative, you can expect a massive increase in sUSDe supply and thus the broader trade closing the arb on all other stables accelerating
what do i think potential results of this are?
1. sUSDe has slightly higher risk of depegs due to the leverage on sUSDe
2. spot leverage markets on ETH have 2 impacts, firstly more liquidations as debt starts mooning, secondly maybe less appetite on overall spot leverage on ETH
3. to expand on that second point, this could mute our bullrun a little, as spot leverage is best jet fuel on underlying majors both locking up tokens and adding leverage
5. this one is a big one... as tradfi yields go down this year, there will be an even bigger arb between offchain yield and onchain yield, which could cause a massive flow of capital into onchain stables as every stablecoin will have very high yield due to the basis trade, this is overall extremely bullish for our industry
4. makes me extremely bullish on Ethena overall (ofcourse accounting for risks)
5. do people buy risk assets or leverage farm a basis trade? does this mute our bullrun a little or throw fuel on it? i have to think more on everything
either way im very excited about how this plays out and the opportunities that come from it
disclaimer: i have no financial investment in ENA or sUSDe, i literally sold my airdrop rip, this is not a paid post, this is not an endorsement (other than i think its a banger product)
clouted