Prafull kumar

Senior Engineer @ Indian Railways |
Tweets on Investing · Economics · Trading Psychology · Compounding.
High-quality businesses.

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

Tweet Thread 1/12
India's data centre capacity: 1.7 GW today (CBRE, April 2026).
2030 projections:
Conservative (Sources : Savills, CareEdge): 4 GW
Aggressive (Sources : Jefferies, Macquarie): 8 GW
Either scenario needs $30–45B in facility capex excluding servers.
Investment commitments already crossed $126B by end-2025.
CBRE projects this hits $180B by end-2026.
2026 alone: ~500 MW of new DC supply expected to come online.
60 listed Indian stocks sit in the supply chain.
Here's the sector map:

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

Hard lesson for new traders:
You are not fighting the market. You are fighting institutions.
They need liquidity to fill their orders. Where do they find it? Around your stop loss.
They sweep below support → trigger retail SLs → collect cheap inventory → reverse.
You just became exit liquidity.
So what's the fix?
❌ "I'll skip the SL, I'm confident" ← This is how you get destroyed.
Shorted without SL → stock hits upper circuit → your position bleeds 20% and goes to auction. No exit. No control. Just pain.
Longed intraday without SL → stock hits lower circuit → same story.
The irony? The traders who skip SLs thinking they're being "bold" are actually the most vulnerable — because institutions count on them sitting there, providing liquidity at the worst price.
Rule: Keep your SL. Place it intelligently — not at the obvious round number where 10,000 other retailers put theirs.
#TradingLessons #IndianMarket

[Markets by Zerodha @zerodhamarkets]

On May 15, for the first time in four years, OMCs finally raised petrol and diesel prices by ₹3 a litre. Four days later, they added a second hike of about 90 paise.

According to CRISIL, even after these hikes, OMCs are losing roughly ₹10 per litre on petrol and ₹13 on diesel. To some analysts, if oil stays above $100, you should expect hikes as high as ₹20 per litre.

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

Q4 & FY26 results are out! GRSE

Q4 FY26
• Revenue: ₹2,119 Cr (+29% YoY)
• PAT: ₹303 Cr (+24% YoY)

Full Year FY26
• Revenue: ₹7,002 Cr (+38% YoY)
• PAT: ₹748 Cr (+42% YoY)

Final dividend ₹6.70/share → Total dividend FY26 = ₹19.60/share

Order book ~₹17,000–18,500 Cr (strong visibility with P-17A, ASW, NGOPVs + NGC pipeline)..

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

Stock on radar :
$GRSE — Garden Reach Shipbuilders.
Builds frigates, corvettes, patrol vessels and warships for the Indian Navy since 1884. First Indian company to export warships.
The numbers:
▪ Revenue CAGR 5yr: 29%
▪ PAT CAGR 5yr: 26%
▪ Q3 FY26 Revenue: +49% YoY
▪ Q3 FY26 PAT: +74% YoY
▪ ROE: 30% | ROCE: 36%
▪ Debt/Equity: 0.01
▪ Cash on books: ₹3,732 Cr
▪ PEG: ~1.6x
▪ Order book: ₹18,482 Cr
▪ NGC contract pending: ~₹33,000 Cr
Stock is 29% below its 52W high..
#Dyor

[Markets by Zerodha @zerodhamarkets]

From June, any solar project that wants to stay on the right side of India's energy policy must use cells made in India. Not assembled here from imported parts, that's already required. Actually fabricated here. The problem: India doesn't yet have enough of them.🧵👇

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

5/5
Setup:
Technical + Fundamental :
CMP: ₹2,761 | RSI: 59 (neutral, not extended)
ATH zone: ₹2,980-3,000 — consolidating below it
Entry: ₹2,580-2,650 (March demand zone, previous consolidation base)
SL: ₹2,420 (below Feb-Mar structural lows — thesis invalidation)
Target 1: ₹3,050 (ATH breakout, 3-6 months)
Target 2: ₹3,500 (FY27 earnings re-rating, 12 months)
Risk:Reward ~1:2.8
Thesis breaks if: gold/silver cycle reverses sharply OR ADT falls back below ₹4L Cr for 2 consecutive quarters.
DYOR. Not SEBI registered.

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

Tweet thread
MCX ( Multi Commodity Exchange Of India Ltd)
1/5
MCX is India's only listed exchange operating in commodity derivatives.
Market share breakdown (FY25):
→ Commodity futures overall: 98%
→ Bullion & precious metals: 100%
→ Energy (crude, nat gas): 99.6%
→ Base metals: 99.8%
This is not a competitive business.
It's a regulated infrastructure asset with pricing power.

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

4/5
Valuation Honesty + FY27 Bridge

Trailing PE: ~113x. Yes, optically expensive.
But annualize Q3 run-rate → FY26E PAT ~₹1,050-1,100 Cr
Forward PE at CMP ₹2,760 → ~95x
If ADT sustains at ₹6-7L Cr in FY27 (gold/silver structural bull cycle + options deepening):
FY27E PAT: ~₹1,400 Cr+ → Forward PE drops to ~72x

Exchange businesses globally sustain 60-90x due to:
→ Zero inventory risk
→ Near-zero marginal cost per trade
→ Regulatory moat (competition needs SEBI license, not capital)
Debt-free. ₹2,300 Cr cash. 51.7% profit margin.

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

@YuvrajShah02 Whats your view on mcx?

[Nigel D'Souza @Nigel__DSouza]

#GIFTNifty suggests a start on the backfoot, buying the dip has worked but will it happen today as well??

India VIX cooled, a sign that volatility is easing!

Power of short covering on display!

April 2026 snapshot:
-Nifty +2200 pts
-FII covered 90k shorts
-DII unwound 75k longs

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

₹12,067 → ₹15,043. +24.7% in 26 days.
What the R&D spending was building:
India's first commercial GLP-1 peptide facility — Summer 2026
$30 Mn firm commitments before Module 1 even opens
Peptide API market: $14 Bn by 2030 at 22.4% CAGR .
📊 Q2 FY26 EBITDA: +138.8% YoY. Margin: 30.4%
🎯 FY27 revenue target: ₹1,900–2,000 Cr..
Ozempic shortage = Neuland opportunity.
The world needed a non-China GLP-1 CDMO.
India stepped up..

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

11/ 💊 NEULAND LABORATORIES (NEULANDLAB)

Thought process: Complex API + CDMO. Peptide, cytotoxic chemistry = pricing power that commodity API makers can't touch. The GLP-1 wave (Ozempic-type drugs) is creating a global peptide API shortage.

Why cheap now: FY25 margin pressure from R&D + capacity investments. Market penalised growth spending.

FY27 EBITDA expansion story intact. This is paying for future moat, not bleeding.

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

₹595 → ₹744. +24.9% in 26 days.
"Metro car JV — new growth leg market hasn't priced in."
Here's what it became:
₹24,000 Cr Vande Bharat Sleeper contract (TRSL + BHEL)
35-year maintenance JV = ₹14,000 Cr recurring
₹226 Cr JSW wagon order
First wagon leasing order — new asset-light revenue stream
Order book: ₹13,955 Cr + ₹24,000 Cr VB contract on top
Manufacture → Maintain (35 yrs) → Lease.
"Once you're in, you're in."
TRSL is in. For 35 years...

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

12/ 🚂 TITAGARH RAIL SYSTEMS (TITAGARH)

Thought process: Specialty wagons + metro rail cars. Indian Railways is a captive customer. Long execution cycles = once you're in, you're in. ₹10,000Cr+ order book = 3+ years of revenue visibility.

Why cheap now: Execution delays + general capex fear derated it.

Metro car JV is an entirely new growth leg the market hasn't priced in yet.

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

₹1,200 → ₹1,486. +23.7% in 26 days.
Since this thread:
April 2026: ₹1,000 Cr Chennai mega-order (ADB-funded)
Order book: ₹16,300+ Cr — 3-4 yrs revenue visibility
O&M share: 20%+ and climbing toward 30%
Net cash: ₹510+ Cr. Zero net debt
📈 FY25 PAT: ₹295 Cr (+20% YoY)
"Most underappreciated infra play" —
The market spent 26 days catching up.
The order book still has 3 more years to run...

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

14/ 💧 VA TECH WABAG (WABAG)

Thought process: Water stress in India is not a future problem — it's current. Proprietary technology in desalination + ZLD + WWTP. 250+ plants globally. And O&M revenue creates a recurring cash flow stream most EPC companies don't have.

Why cheap now: Lumpy EPC revenues kept PE compressed. Balance sheet now de-levered. O&M mix growing to 30%+.

Most underappreciated infrastructure play on the board.

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

₹2,313 → ₹2,768. +19.6% in 26 days.
The boring AMC did boring things:
✅ FY26 PAT: ₹2,859 Cr (+16.2%)
✅ FY26 Revenue: ₹4,118 Cr (+17.7%)
✅ March SIP: ₹32,100 Cr — all-time record
✅ AUM: ₹8.44 Trillion as of March 31
✅ Dividend: ₹54/share
✅ Debt: ₹0

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

13/ 📈 HDFC AMC (HDFCAMC)

Thought process: India's mutual fund penetration is 8% of GDP vs 80%+ in the US. We are at the start of an equity culture shift. As AUM grows, fee income compounds without proportional cost increases. This is a toll booth on India's savings.

Why cheap now: SIP growth moderated in FY25. Premium compressed.

50%+ ROE. Zero debt. This is a compounder disguised as a boring AMC.

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

₹660 → ₹728. +10.3% in 26 days.
"19 consecutive growth quarters" — it's now 22.
Q4 FY26 (Apr 17):
→ Revenue: ₹1,539 Cr (+12.8% YoY) ✅
→ PAT: ₹133 Cr — QoQ dip ⚠️
→ $202 Mn TCV pipeline intact
→ FY27 guided: "Better than FY26"
PAT dipped. Thesis didn't.
ICE-to-EV software transition = decade-long cycle.
KPIT is embedded. Still.

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

7/ 🚗 KPIT TECHNOLOGIES (KPITTECH)

Thought process: Every ICE vehicle converting to EV needs its software architecture rebuilt. KPIT writes that software — powertrain, ADAS, connected vehicle middleware — for global OEMs. No comparable Indian listed play.

Why cheap now: Broad IT selloff dragged it down. 19 consecutive quarters of growth ignored by the market.

The ICE-to-EV software transition is a decade-long cycle. KPIT is embedded in it.

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

₹1,180 → ₹1,643. (+39.2% ) in 26 days.
Fire recovery + geopolitical moat = underpriced thesis.
What happened since this thread:
→ Dahej replacement plant: Q1 FY27 commissioning on track
→ Insurance recovered: ₹140 Cr
→ Morita JV: India's only non-FEOC LiPF6 plant
→ US IRA mandates non-China batteries → Neogen is the answer
→ Q4 FY26 results dropping soon
"Sizing matters here" — those who sized right are smiling 😊

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

5/ 🧪 NEOGEN CHEMICALS (NEOGEN)

Thought process: One of India's only makers of lithium electrolyte salts for EV batteries. Also strong in bromine chemistry. Two independent moats in one stock. EV battery localisation is a decade-long story.

Why cheap now: Dahej plant fire (2025) crushed profitability. Plant is back online. International approval in process.

⚠️ High risk, high reward. Sizing matters here.

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

₹272 → ₹310. +13.8% in 26 days.
The re-rating triggers just stacked up:
✅ World Bank debarment: LIFTED
✅ FY26 Revenue: ₹2,395 Cr (+23% YoY)
✅ Order book: ₹5,005 Cr
✅ Inquiries pipeline: ₹23,000+ Cr

India's first HVDC transformer repair order from PGCIL
"Market overreacted" was the thesis.
₹5,005 Cr book + ₹23,000 Cr pipeline says the market is still catching up.

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

4/ ⚡ TRANSFORMERS & RECTIFIERS INDIA (TRIL)

Thought process: Complex, high-voltage transformers for power utilities = long gestation, sticky relationships, pricing power. India's T&D capex is multi-year.

Why cheap now: World Bank debarment caused a 52% crash from highs. WB orders are a small part of the book. ₹46B+ order book intact. Market overreacted.

⚠️ Governance optics risk is real — watch for WB resolution as re-rating trigger.

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

₹118.84 → ₹125.80. +5.8% since the tweet.
But let's talk about what happened last Sunday:
CERC dropped a new Market Coupling draft → IEX fell 6%
Same bear thesis. Third time now.
Meanwhile:
→ RTM volumes: +40% YoY
→ PAT: ₹462 Cr, zero debt
→ Now pivoting to Gas + Carbon + Coal exchange
→ Q4 FY26 results: Tomorrow (Apr 23)
24x PE on a monopoly that's becoming India's energy OS.
The fear is old. The growth isn't.

[Prafull kumar @kprafull1]

3/ ⚡ IEX — INDIAN ENERGY EXCHANGE (IEX)

Thought process: Monopoly. Asset-light. 80%+ EBITDA margins. Zero debt. Cash machine. India's power grid NEEDS a real-time exchange as renewables scale. IEX is that exchange.

Why cheap now: Open access policy fear compressed valuation. Trading at 26x vs 5yr median of 42x — a 37% discount.

Fear priced in. Growth not priced in. Classic setup.