Concerned Citizen

I am not a financial advisor, let alone an expert. Just a place to keep track of my notes/DD! I quit drinking and have used the savings to take up trading.

[Concerned Citizen @kratos015]

@OstrichTrader @sspencer_smb Not many businesses have actually implemented AI yet, but $WMT has been doing it for years now.

No one will be able to compete.

$wmt will kill off most grocers, dollar stores, and topple Amazon soon.

They will all lose market share to WMT. It's already happening.

[Concerned Citizen @kratos015]

@OstrichTrader @sspencer_smb Partly this but also how $WMT is using AI is why I've been saying it's a tech stock since 2024. 150 has been my price target since they last split the stock.

$WMT is revolutionizing how online shopping and grocery is does, using AI to optimize everything down to the decimal.

[Concerned Citizen @kratos015]

@PatrikBatCrypto @CryptoNobler It's no use. Most will find out the hard way. We all did at one point. I know I did.

Same narrative, song, and dance I've seen many times since 2020.

Looking forward to the gains from shorting miners this year.

[Concerned Citizen @kratos015]

@anidesh7 @jhains2 Not a certainty, only a theory. My stores warehouse used to only stock Cargill (all domestic. Excel, sterling, etc)

I'm seeing more National (Marfrig). Was only with ground beef, but now it's t-bones and round.

If domestic shortage gets worse, JBS profits is my theory.

[Concerned Citizen @kratos015]

@anidesh7 @jhains2 the beef shortages in the US. JBS operates world wide, not just in the US. If US beef numbers are struggling, JBS is positioned to profit from the vacuum in domestic supply over the next few years.

My theory is US imports for a few years while our ranchers play catch up

[Concerned Citizen @kratos015]

@jhains2 @anidesh7 Filet mignon from 26.39 to 33.99/lb. Ppl still buying. Even with high prices.

My thinking is JBS moves next March-April. Q4 results are huge in grocery (holidays) and we'll have more info on cattle supply by then. And other various macro factors.

[Concerned Citizen @kratos015]

@jhains2 @anidesh7 I've been hearing between 2-5 years to get back to normal. 2 years and that is if we start today, literally this minute. And only beef too.

Chicken and pork I've had zero issues with this year. Beef? 3 price increases in just the last 4-5 weeks.

[Concerned Citizen @kratos015]

@anidesh7 @jhains2 MMs hedge calls by buying stock. But with such low float on a stock with 67% of shares owned by insiders (including Brazil govt) this could very well gamma squeeze

[Concerned Citizen @kratos015]

@anidesh7 @jhains2 67% shares owned by insiders too. And low float (6M/day)

Quick math. 6M/100 shares (1 option contract) = 60000 contracts.

What do you suppose happens if say the open interest of the Sept 25c is 60000, the price is 25 by then, and MMs can't buy 6M shares to cover calls?

[Concerned Citizen @kratos015]

You're right. It should be higher. Above that major 46 level. Lots of news and catalysts for them. But still no 46 pre earnings at HG ATHs, when it was in the 50s with $4.70 HG, and no catalysts amd worse earnings.

Seems sus. Stay long, but hedge.

[Concerned Citizen @kratos015]

I'm in $FCX 40p this Fri for a spec gap fill play.

Feels like a sell the news event. Especially since it can't break $46, major resistance going back to 08.

Wyckoff distribution. Why it's not breaking 46.

Fcx was in the 50s when copper was $4.70-5.05. New ATH & only 45? BS

[Concerned Citizen @kratos015]

supply coming, is my thesis. Lots of new bulls bought in on 7/8 tariff. They upside down now.

One last shakeout of weak hands (aka test of supply) to the 39 level before going to the 50s.

"But CC, tariffs are good for FCX, last ER good, good company. This should be higher"

[Concerned Citizen @kratos015]

@DrRomeetSaha Oh yeah, only time will tell. Bear flag breaks then it could definitely get ugly and quick.

Happy trading!

[Concerned Citizen @kratos015]

@DrRomeetSaha $copper has been holding up really well here; despite the recession talk, & gold pushing, & oil + dollar dropping, copper is holding up great.

Lots of talk about EV, electrification, data centers, AI, etc. None of that works without copper, which is in short supply. New ATH soon

[Concerned Citizen @kratos015]

@DrRomeetSaha Could possibly be a bear trap, zooming out on the 1D chart shows a different picture. Multiple cup and handle patterns since 2008.

C&H from May 2024 to present
Cup from Mar 2022-May 2024, handle is the C&H from May 24-present
Cup from Mar 2011-Mar 2022, handle is cups above