Kreg

Observing & Speculating

[Kreg @KregSpec]

@Alyosha745 has a way with words 😂.

"Although the short position in Treasuries is masked by the basis trade, the tumorous short interest in TLT and LQD ETF data sticks out like dog’s balls."

[Kreg @KregSpec]

Short term, we should get a bounce in oil and maybe Warsh can add some vol to back up yields for another buying opportunity.

Treasuries, Bunds...hell I'll even buy Gilts and JGBs.

Ideally, this comes with a higher low in Gold and can finally start buying the barbaric relic.

[Kreg @KregSpec]

Longer term, I think the energy/commodity security & inflation theme is intact.

However, there's clear disinflation in the short term. Global yields are down significantly since highs in May.

Obviously, oil (major inflation input) is down, but so is overall BCOM

[Kreg @KregSpec]

The inflation accelerating narrative crescendo peaked yesterday / this morning as the crowd anchored on the backwards looking data.

With oil down 25% since April highs and @Hedgeye (whose inflation forecast is always🎯) showing a drop over the next month spent yesterday and

[Kreg @KregSpec]

Inflation proxies like Housing and lumber are up.

The only (yet major) disconfirming piece is gold.

If this is correct, the next couple months should provide great entries for favorite longer term holds in energy, coal, metals, etc.

[Josh Crumb 🆔++ @JoshCrumb]

This all takes time. The reason why the LBMA system is so liquid is that it’s an FX-like fix you’re trading the unallocated-gold “balance sheet” units of bullion banks. It’s a debt based system, not a hard asset auction.

Liquidity needs leverage and credit. A pre-funded, allocated-spot-gold market is the definition of a full-equity, no debt/leverage market. Thus low liquidity.

But this is where MarketOS will come in. MarketOS will allow for the digital title and collateral-evidentiary trail in real time, not fully relying on pre-funding to generate liquidity, but no multi-day delivery fails or credit risk off Abaxx Spots balance sheet to function as a CCP.

With new members and onboarding, more growth in the futures markets, potentially MAS central bank vault sovereign inventory, and Abaxx 1of1 MarketOS tech, we’re confident in the future utility of Abaxx’s full stack ecosystem

[Josh Crumb 🆔++ @JoshCrumb]

We’re in the 🇸🇬 conversations but the old way of doing things is sticky.

Whether we end up directly involved, or as a #gold and #silver futures-market ecosystem that’s interoperable (perhaps with our 🆔++ & MarketOS tech), either way this is a positive development for us and confirms the direction of travel for the precious metals market to Singapore (independent of the geopolitical risks of the centers of gravity emerging from US, India or China, ie tariffs or import/export restrictions)
$ABXX.TO

[Judy Shelton @judyshel]

Important development

[Kreg @KregSpec]

this morning buying $RFIX and $MTBA @SimplifyAsstMgt. Throw in some bond futures for shits and giggles...

Hell of pivot Mucker. When matters.

[Kreg @KregSpec]

The inflation accelerating narrative crescendo peaked yesterday / this morning as the crowd anchored on the backwards looking data.

With oil down 25% since April highs and @Hedgeye (whose inflation forecast is always🎯) showing a drop over the next month spent yesterday and

[Keith McCullough @KeithMcCullough]

CHART OF THE DAY: Hedgeye Inflation Nowcast https://t.co/NEe2hYic4l via @hedgeye

[Kreg @KregSpec]

Point being, the actions (and money/careers) of those who know the business intimately suggest Abaxx is much more than a shitco pipe dream.

Ultimately, none of this matters.

QoQ & YoY volumes are the test. Looks good to me.

[Kreg @KregSpec]

What a gift this morning. Merci, Viceroy

I certainly wasn't expecting a retest of March lows this soon but for a stock like $ABXX that runs 100%+ in months, 30-50% drawdowns are a feature.

Most of my buys/adds have come on pullbacks after big runs where the business

[Kreg @KregSpec]

For the first time since last summer, I'm looking to buy more Abaxx ($ABXX)

The business fundamentals are progressing: ⬆️nodes/network &⬆️exchange volumes.

From a stock price perspective, the technicals have become interesting:

[Kreg @KregSpec]

3. @CommodMkt & @robert_ivanhoe are both financially/reputationally associated with Abaxx.

4. Look at the history of the employees they've bought on: https://t.co/6SAykWclJ4; https://t.co/oj9Glfk2qy

5. Look at the quality of the onboarded clearing members, FCMs, banks, etc

[Sugaronline @sugaronline]

#SUGAR NEWS: Czarnikow cuts 2026/27 global sugar production estimate by 1.8 million metric tonnes; now estimates a global sugar deficit of 100,000 tonnes: https://t.co/6Gf8uTKl4N.

Join us today to read the full story! #commoditiestrading #softcommodities #sugarindustry

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

Vietnam Eases Coal Production Limits to Boost Energy Security

Vietnam will allow coal mines to produce above regulated capacity, the latest move by the government to strengthen energy security as the war in Iran disrupts fuel supplies.

Miners will be able to lift output by as much as 15% above licensed capacity until the end of next year, according to a statement on the government website. The extra coal can only be used for electricity production and must not exceed permitted coal reserves, the statement said. (Bloomberg)

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

Energy factoid of the day:

The entire annual global LNG market equals to about six weeks of coal demand in China and India.

[Ivanhoe Mines @IvanhoeMines_]

Three decades in the making. From exploration license to building one of the world's largest and greenest copper producing complexes. The Kamoa-Kakula story.
$IVN

[Josh Crumb 🆔++ @JoshCrumb]

True. I don’t think most of the market understands that Abaxx front-loaded the investment in a global scale exchange/clearinghouse over seven years. Growth wont look like a tech CAC/LTV, it can happen much quicker (with less additional spending) through key onboarding and simply ramping up to trading “capacity” in our contracts to their first principle TAMs (with no competition so far in these contracts specifically).

Volumes and revenues can ramp up quickly as new clearing members and regions onboard. Next up is China 🇨🇳 and US 🇺🇸 in Q3.
#gold #lng #silver #batterymetals #renewablepower

[Kreg @KregSpec]

There hasn't been a unifying technology network across the entire chain:

producers; consumers/merchants; the clearing-credit intermediary; the physical title/warehouse/delivery layer; and the identity/regulatory layer.

Until now. @abaxx_tech

Bring on the Agents. @abaxx_labs

[Kreg @KregSpec]

Really good episode on financing of commodities through the supply chain.

Also, a minute-by-minute checklist of every problem @abaxx_tech is solving with its physically delivered futures contracts secured with T+0 Digital Title & collateral settlement.

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

NEW ODD LOTS:

How commodity finance really works

@tracyalloway and I talk to Lewis Hart, head of corporate advisory and banking at Brown Brothers Harriman about the business of shipping commodities -- from oil to cashews -- all around the world https://t.co/lfx7cTmQ5A

[Kreg @KregSpec]

✅Homogeneous financialized futures vs. physically delivered real world
✅Collateral haircuts
✅Velocity of turnover & Trapped collateral
✅Basis Risk
✅Tracking In-transit/warehoused commodities
✅Bill of lading / warehouse receipt / trust receipt / account receivable delays