Anyone short $TSLA needs to have their head examined.
- EVs are a great business (15% EV adoption today, going to 60% by 2030).
- TSLA will launch a $25K vehicle in 2025, significantly expanding its TAM.
- TSLA will solve generalized autonomy first, worth potentially $5T.
- TSLA will use all its learnings from Robotaxi to launch Optimus robots which could by itself be worth $20-$25T market cap.
Autonomous vehicles: 100M vehicles market x 10% share = 10M veh/year x $50K price, $30K cost = $200B profit/year x 25x P/E = $5T value
Optimus: Market demand for robots 1 billion per year, TSLA captures 10% market share, Price $20K per robot, Cost $10K per robot, $1T profits (100M x $10K each), 20-25x multiple = $20-$25T value