kruti.chheta

Fund manager -Fixed Income

[kruti.chheta @krutichheta]

Please be informed that fake whatsapp group using the name Ms. Kruti Chheta, Fund Manager have been created with an intent to defraud unsuspecting members of the public and the fraudsters

I advise investors & public at large not to fall prey to these fake accounts/links.

[kruti.chheta @krutichheta]

MPC- Rate cut done, more support for growth

MPC in line with market expectations delivered a 25bps rate cut in order to support growth, while rate cut is delivered, it might not be enough for required support.

With inflation at comfortable levels and growth slowdown the pathway for the policy seems to be clear.However near term currency markets might remain volatile creating opportunities.

Meanwhile RBI may keep supporting liquidity through OMOs and VRR to sail through the situation.

*views are personal

#mpc #ratecut #growth #inflation #investing #currency #geopolitics #economy #investing #monetarypolicy

[kruti.chheta @krutichheta]

Trump 2.0:- Tariffs & Twists

Trump imposed tariffs, highlighting political agenda “America First”. These tariffs are likely to have economic consequences not only on the country on whom tariffs are imposed but also on US. This action puts inflation, GDP growth, consumer spending and interest rates once again in focus.

*views are personal

#tariffs #geopolitics #inflation #growth #economy #monetarypolicy #usa #economics #fixedincome #investing

[kruti.chheta @krutichheta]

India Budget- Balancing Growth & Fiscal Consolidation

The India 2025-2026 balanced 3Cs
Consumption, Consolidation & Capex

Now the baton is handed over to RBI

*views are personal
#indiabudget #fiscalconsolidation #capex #consumption #growthframework #economy #fixedincome #mpc

[kruti.chheta @krutichheta]

RBI- Action has to be taken when its impactful and meaningful

#mpc #interestrates #centralbank #inflation #growth #liquidity

*views are personal

[kruti.chheta @krutichheta]

Key Policies

Trade & Investment tax
Immigration
Fiscal policies

[kruti.chheta @krutichheta]

Trump 2.0

Trump is set to take office on January 2025
What his policies may mean for the markets and economy?

*views are personal

#uselections #fiscal #commodities #tradewars #monetarypolicy #economics #investing #fixedincome

[kruti.chheta @krutichheta]

US Treasury Maturing - Higher interest Burden or Case for Lowering the cost

US treasury to see 54% of its outstanding debt maturing in next 3 years with 33% maturing next year.
New issuances range between 4-4.5%
High interest cost or lowering rates
#ustreasury #interestrates #fed #economy

[kruti.chheta @krutichheta]

MPC- Change in stance, opening up to new possibilities

RBI kept rates on hold, however changed stance
The change in stance paves way for start of rate cut cycle, if not immediately definitely in near term

#interestrates #mpc #inflation #centralbank #economics #fixedincome

[kruti.chheta @krutichheta]

Fed Preview- A Conservative start or a Bold move
The current economic factors advocate for a balanced policy between cutting too much too soon versus cutting too less too late. In the upcoming policy, Fed likely to take measured steps

#fomc #interestrates #economy #yieldcurve

[kruti.chheta @krutichheta]

India Bank Deposit Crunch- Concern or Structural Change
RBI has showed some concerns increasing deposit crunch. This changing credit landscape has forced regulators to re-think if this is structural and if there needs to be change the approach

#creditgrowth #consumption #economy

[kruti.chheta @krutichheta]

MPC Aug’24 - Stay Put

*views are personal

#mpc #inflation #growth #centralbanks #economy #fixedincome #investing

[kruti.chheta @krutichheta]

Central Banks gets going

Various rate decisions have been made in last two weeks. While most of the Central Banks have opted for rate cuts, BOJ has hiked. Post four years of rate hikes, finally global central banks set into the rate cut cycle.
#centralbanks #interestrates

[kruti.chheta @krutichheta]

India Budget 2024- The Balanced One

The Budget on expected lines prioritized fiscal consolidation, continuing capex momentum and skill development.
The budget balances Macro stability and positive growth momentum.

*views are personal

#indiabudget #fiscal #economy

[kruti.chheta @krutichheta]

US Economy- Making a progress

US recent data releases has been something that markets were long expecting,With data releases finally showing softening trend, Fed may get more room to manoeuvre around the policy decision.

#fed #inflation #employment #interestrates #economy

[kruti.chheta @krutichheta]

Year of Elections

2024 is an extra ordinary year of elections, over 64 countries representing around 60% of the world population has either gone or will go in for election

The table below shows snippet of few key economies

views are personal

#elections #economy #investing

[kruti.chheta @krutichheta]

The Fed Hesitancy
 June FOMC
while pause was much in expected lines, the dot plot suggesting 1 rate cut vs 3 earlier was unexpected. Reasons could be
I) Make no mistake
II) Bring down inflation on sustainable basis
III) immigration adding to unemployment

#economy #fomc

[kruti.chheta @krutichheta]

RBI Dividend Decoded

Interest income from Foreign investments grew by 50%, adding to the overall income by ~17%.
The lowering of prov to INR 428.2 Bn vs. INR 1.31Tn in the previous year boosted the RBI income.
#rbidividend #economy

[kruti.chheta @krutichheta]

RBI Dividend - A Bonanza

Possible reasons for higher pay out:
Higher revaluation of gold and profit booking
Gains from security sales

Possible Outcomes:
Govt may have aggressive capex plans
There could be reduction in govt borrowings

*views are personal

#rbi #economy

[kruti.chheta @krutichheta]

US Inflation - Slow and Steady

US inflation is gradually moderating bringing the range now to 3.3-3.5%. Some of the major core components continue to remain sticky, creating an obstacle for the pathway for 2% target in near term.

#inflation #US #economy #fixedincome #investing