My thesis about $BTC bottomed at $60k;
- Momentum: The Weekly RSI has dropped below 30 only four times in history. The first three instances (January 2015, December 2018, and June 2022) marked definitive macro bottoms. In February 2026, this signal triggered for the fourth time, strongly suggesting the bottom is in.
- Time Capitulation: The last two bear markets lasted exactly 364 days from peak to trough. We are currently on day 236 of the current correction, meaning there are only 128 days left to print a new low, if any. While a brief wick to $60k or even $55k is possible, the price is unlikely to spend more than a month below the $60k threshold.
- Prior Cycle High Support: In the 2022 cycle, Bitcoin bottomed around $15.5k, briefly dipping below the 2017 peak of $19k for less than two months, a capitulation heavily exacerbated by the FTX collapse. Without a similar black swan event, there is no catalyst to force and sustain the price below the previous cycle high area (around $60k) within the next 128 days.
- Market Sentiment: Crypto Twitter has turned into a ghost town. Sentiment is arguably worse than during the COVID-19 or FTX crashes. Engagement is driven mostly by newer accounts, while veterans and OGs have either retired or stepped away.
- Confirmation for Leverage Longs: While nothing is certain, historical data points to a high probability that the macro bottom is in. However, before deploying high leverage long positions, I am waiting for a definitive reclaim of the Weekly EMA 21-50 trend, which is currently bearish and has rejected the price on the last two retests.
- Conclusion: This reclaim will likely happen in 2027 around the $80k level. Barring a catastrophic black swan event, $60k is the definitive macro bottom. In a worst case liquidation cascade, we might see a brief wick to $55k or $50k, but a drop below $40k is off the table.
$ZEC, expecting a push into ATHs from here.
Daily PA is showing signs of distribution near the range highs with three drives paired with bearish divs on RSI. That's a clear topping signal — but for now, that's a concern for once we tap the highs, not before.
Zooming into the LTF, I think we've bottomed and printed a higher low right at the 0.75 fib pocket. From here, the play is a third drive into the macro range highs tapping ATHs.
Watch for the distribution signals to play out once we get there. But before that, one more leg up.
So I am long.
#ZEC #ZECUSDT
$OTHERS Update
Really important here at the key s/r + uptrend momentul channel lows.
If this is not holding then last chance is a potential trendline liqudity grab and reclaim with the weekly close.
Thing is that we got Monthly Close around the corner and I expect manipulation
$SUI, looking good here after the breakout earlier this month.
• Price has pulled back and is now holding support right at the VAH of the previous daily range — the exact level it broke out from.
• Below that, the 12H breaker block that originally led the breakout move is providing support and potentially forming a local bottom here.
On top of that, the EMA cluster is converging right in this zone adding further confluence.
Three layers of support stacking up at the same level. As long as this holds, the path of least resistance is back to the upside targeting the 0.618–0.786 fib extension zone.
Solid structure.
#SUI #SUIUSDT
توقع قاع البير ماركت للبيتكوين للدورة الهابطه الحالياً زمنياً و سعرياً .
و لكن هذا التوقع مقرون بشروط و خطوات محددة يجب حدوثها للتاكيد ان شاء الله .
1- تداول البيتكوين في النطاق السعري
64 الف بحد أقصى الي 100 الف خلال الربع الثالث ( يوليو ،اغسطس ، سبتمبر )
- القاع يكون في الربع الرابع زمنياً
( اكتوبر ، نوفمبر ، ديسمبر )
مابين 54 الف الي 44 الف .
2- تداول البيتكوين في النطاق السعري
مابين 44 الف بحد أقصى الي 64 الف خلال الربع الثالث
( يوليو ، اغسطس، سبتمبر)
- القاع يكون في الربع الرابع زمنياً
( اكتوبر ، نوفمبر ، ديسمبر )
34 الف الي 24 الف .
الخلاصه :-
- زمنياً القاع يتم تشكيله مابين اكتوبر و ديسمبر 2026 ان شاء الله ،
- سعرياً القاع يتشكل مابين 44 الف الي 24 الف .
- و تحديد القاع 44 الف او 24 الف متوقف علي اداء البيتكوين خلال الربع الثالث يوليو اغسطس سبتمبر من هذا العام و النطاق السعري اللي بيتداول فيه البيتكوين خلال هذه الفتره الزمنية.
- نقطة فشل التحليل و انتهاء البير ماركت و الدخول في دورة صاعده ،
اختراق البيتكوين اخر قمة تاريخية واغلاق اسبوع تداول اعلى اخر قمه محققه تاريخيا او اختراق 105 الف و تداول اسبوعين اعلي 105 الف .
هنا تاكيد علي انتهاء الدورة الهابطه و الدخول في دورة صاعده جديده .
غير هذا احنا في بير ماركت الي نهاية 2026 مع حدوث ارتدادات و صعود تصحيحي من حين الي اخر .
والله اعلى واعلم .