a few times a year on here you get gifted an extremely cogent investment thesis from crypto twitter from people who have spent way more time than you doing research on an individual name
$GLXY is still a layup trade from here
PLAY PARALLEL TCG
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@SmartDumbMan No. The breakeven is still 3.25%, full stop. the comparison reduces to: is the $150k earning more than 3.25% in the market, or not? That’s it. You’re deciding whether to keep a 3.25% loan open to invest the proceeds. Breakeven = cost of the loan = 3.25%.
@SmartDumbMan your spreadsheet’s “Scenario 1 gain = $3,402” is wrong because you are subtracting the entire mortgage payment as a loss, when most of it is principal reduction. that’s not gone, it’s just moved from “cash” to “home equity.”
@SmartDumbMan comparing gains on two different capital bases. Scenario 1 earns on $150k; Scenario 2 only invests $979/mo, so its “$12k gain” is mostly just the contributions, not returns. Real breakeven isn’t 15.67% — it’s the mortgage rate (3.25%).
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🧵 1/5
Year-End Update
Parallel TCG (Mobile Trading Card Game)
Parallel TCG is on track to launch a consumer-first mobile experience on iOS and Android in Q1.
The digital and mobile trading card game (TCG) segment represents one of the most attractive categories in gaming. The global digital TCG market is estimated at ~$8–10B annually, with mobile-led growth in the high single-digit to low double-digit CAGR range, materially outpacing broader mobile gaming growth. A small number of leading franchises each generate $300M–$1B+ in annual revenue, underscoring the category’s winner-take-most dynamics.
Mobile digital TCGs benefit structurally from:
•High LTV and ARPU, driven by collectible scarcity, competitive progression, and live-ops cadence
•Long product lifecycles, often extending a decade or more with consistent content expansion
•Strong retention and network effects, as ranked play, social systems, and metas evolve over time
We believe Parallel TCG will reached a level of product quality, accessibility, and depth that is on par with—and in several areas superior to—incumbent mobile digital TCGs. With core gameplay, UX, and retention systems now meeting a very high bar, our focus is shifting toward market share acquisition, efficient scaling, and graduating players into a broader TCG ecosystem.
At scale, successful mobile digital TCGs can achieve $500M+ in annual revenue with durable margins, characteristic of best-in-class live-service games. Parallel TCG is being built explicitly with this outcome as the target.
We recognize this is a high-bar, winner-take-most market. Our strategy is not incremental differentiation, but to be meaningfully better—positioning Parallel TCG to compete for category leadership rather than niche participation.
Admittedly, this is a mature category and we will be focused on marketing and conversion post release in Q1 to ultimately find edge and sustainability. In short it’s about distribution now that we have a product that’s on par (if not better) with market expectations - I think a lot of people will be caught on their back foot at release.
@elonmusk@xai@elonmusk would love to work with you and @xai on @ParallelColony an AI game coming out in Q1 on iOS and Android. There’s still time to rip out pieces to leverage Grok and XAi more.
Attempting to rationalize a large movements as within the capacity of any one population (be it miners or MMs) or as byproducts of behaviours (leverage in the system etc) fails to account for the world changing materially around us in the last year and how narratively crypto has generally not contributed to the rise of the new world of AI at scale. This isn’t to say there aren’t people working on this but generally speaking - we haven’t cracked things just yet.
The level of immediate disruption to traditional systems is being eclipsed by the pace of systemic change created by AI. A nascent opportunity is a valuable one for those with capital and risk tolerance and the perception is that the outsized returns are in AI consumer products that are upending industries that were otherwise cemented in the world - until they weren’t. I’m talking about things as fundamental as music, art, code, work and more. Yes, money is the cornerstone of value but the migration to adopt AI is unlike anything the world has seen, and crypto and money more generally has largely not been the beneficiary of that disruptive scale - yet.
In addition to this, the pace of AI scaling and improvement is somewhat at odds with that of crypto in that the core resources are shared. The basic building blocks of it (computation and energy) are now in competition in some capacity - be it practically or narratively which leads to considering which is more efficient and has greater potential. There was largely no contest before and AI has something going for it that I would argue crypto doesn’t - you can’t look away, it’s looking into the unknown and the idea that we approach the event horizon of AGI.
In my opinion this is a mass reassessment of capital allocation reflecting (be it knowingly or not) on the probability of scaled AI in our future impacting every human on earth… it’s also a system shock reflecting how unsure we are about the future at the same time, will we reach AGI and will it be utopian?
It’s a bit like overspending on something you believe to be true but dont even really know what it looks like when you get it - AGI. You do it because the promise sounds good, you do it because you want gains, you do it because everyone’s talking about it, you do it because you fear it and can’t escape it. It’s the perfect drug - we can’t even explain what will happen as a result and yet we are deploying our capital and resources in the hopes that we meet something more intelligent than us at the end of this.
What could be more fascinating to a world than the creation of ‘god’ itself who serves humanity and in turn gifts us greater power than we could imagine. Frankly we are seeing results that indicate it will create productivity unlike anything we have seen before.. it turns out intelligence itself (AI) is the translation layer and universal tool that enables efficient creation. Which brings me to my next thought...
I would argue there are early signs that with abundance of energy and infinite knowledge (AGI), money as a concept could lose importance. The combination of infinite energy and infinite knowledge means any goods or services would be ubiquitous - see Star Trek replicators. I’m not convinced entirely of this to be honest but it’s worthy of a mention as i believe this to be the root of the argument for AI resulting in abundance - as unclear as it may be.
Cont…
>be me
>eth maxi
>deep dive into @megaeth almost a year ago
>curious what a real-time blockchain actually unlocks
>mind blown
>start posting about it on CT
>no expectations
>missed echo sale
>not eligible for fluffle
>still too bullish to ignore
>connect with @bread_ and invite him on the @EVMavericks podcast
>keep posting and trying apps
>a few months later
>they announce their ico
>don't have enough funds
>deposit fiat onchain for the first time in 4 years
>fast forward to today
>wake up
>part of the 0.1% of wallets manually selected for the ico
>locked for 1 year because long term conviction
>probably getting almost full allocation
>feels good
@ParallelTCGpod@dave_schick no kohji. dont hesitate. you are the most talented, handsome and gentle man in the universe. you have the best sense of fashion and are always on top of social situations. never talk yourself down, just accept the magnificient gift you have, and let Dave tell it to you every day.
.
@cobie
while i appreciate the offer to appear on up only, i'm going to have to pass. focusing on my own podcast + the wife and kids. hope you understand 🙏
when i started building echo 2 years ago, i knew it had 95% chance of failing. to be honest, i couldnt really imagine any other outcome, but i thought at least it may be a noble failure worth attempting.
i certainly didn't think echo would be sold to coinbase, but, here we are: today coinbase bought echo for ~$375m.
echo will remain a standalone platform under its current brand for now, but we will integrate sonar's public sale product into coinbase, and likely introduce new ways for founders to access investors, and for investors to access opportunities into coinbase itself.
over the years i have chatted to brian a handful of times, and mostly to complain at him honestly. i have always respected how brian would listen to an outsider chat shit at him on the phone and take the feedback seriously. now, instead of complaining, i will have the opportunity try to do the work to make things better.
crypto itself has moved on a long way since we started working on echo. i guess partially this is because of the election result. but, i feel energised by a lot of the cool things being built in crypto again: hyperliquid, zcash, stablecoin supercyle, and so on.
feels like a good time to be on the field instead of an idiot with a twitter account yapping nonsense. well, i guess i still will be that.
anyway, job's not finished. onwards.
oh fuck yeah, before i go, the final season of up only (now "unc only" due to our severe old age) will commence when we figure out who the guests should be lol
cobber
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