@JesseKellyDC Truth is…jailing a State’s Attorney General for conspiring to commit grand theft, fraud, obstruction of justice, etc, when they are caught red-handed (and admitting to being central to it occurring (ie, her department signing the docs that enabled/assisted in its execution))🙏🇺🇸
@TammyLeeJones5@NextRoundLive Careful, you dolt …(remember (or learn it now), UF and Vandy have the best academic ratings for students and alums in the SEC.
You would know that if you weren’t, a (what’s the word?),…RETARD!🐊🐊🐊
$META $ORCL $CRWV $NVDA $MU $TSM
Thanks to @jukan05 for translating this. It's one of the clearest reads on the selloff we've seen, and we agree with its central line: "what decides life or death is not the size of the investment but the financing structure."
The property comparison is a good one too. Developers like Sunac and Vanke peaked first. Suppliers like Skshu Paint peaked later because their whip was longer. The note's list for today: CoreWeave, Nvidia, ASML, TSMC.
The cash flow statements filed with the SEC back the financing point. In the latest quarter, capex took 123% of operating cash flow at Oracle, 119% at Amazon and 115% at Alphabet. A year earlier it was 104%, 99% and 81%. Meta is at 95% and Microsoft at 65%. CoreWeave spent $6.4bn against $0.7bn of operating cash flow (chart 1).
We'd add one thing to the comparison: which way the money moves down the chain. In China, the paint maker at the end of the whip was holding Evergrande's IOUs. In June 2021, commercial bills that Evergrande companies had issued to Skshu's subsidiary were dishonored, the same month the note dates Skshu's peak. In AI, Micron is holding $13bn of its customers' cash.
Most of the AI chain runs that way (chart 2). Micron carried $13bn of customer contract liabilities at Sept 3, mostly deposits, and about $150bn of contracted minimum-price volume by Sept 30. SanDisk holds $1.24bn of customer advances and $1.5bn of refundable deposits. TSMC generated NT$476.6bn of free cash flow in Q3 and has NT$2.99tn of net cash, and ASML says some customers want to place orders for 2029 and 2030.
Nvidia is the exception. It held about $99bn of equity stakes at the end of July, 31% of its total assets, including stakes in companies that buy its GPUs. That's the closest thing in this chain to Skshu holding Evergrande paper.
So I'd read the whip a little differently. The neoclouds and the hyperscalers that borrow are the developers. Memory and foundry are suppliers that got paid up front. Nvidia sits in between, paid like a supplier and investing like a lender.
The first test is Wednesday. Meta goes in at 95%, and a high 2027 capex guide would push it past 100%. Microsoft reports Oct 28 and Amazon Oct 29. If the ratios keep climbing and borrowing keeps getting more expensive, the top of the chain feels it first. Suppliers would see it later, as cuts to contracted volume in their own filings.
Which layer do you think the market has priced wrong?
@mrmetoo713@ScottEnlow You’re saying repo driver should “respect his auth-or-a-tie”?
He has no authority. He’s breaking numerous laws, and an out of jurisdiction, ignorant to state laws, poser.
Who apparently committed assault and battery.
On video.
“Dr.” of edumakation?
🤣🤣🤣
You’re the sheeple.
@JimmyPatronis@JellyRoll615 Wow.don’t you have a (kinda) day job Fla taxpayers are funding (oh that’s right, that never stopped the 10x rise in insurance premiums for Floridians when you were supposed to be “regulating, not entertaining” insurance companies’ lobbyists for years as a Fla regulator. CUCK POS!
@iAnonPatriot $300B US spent, 13+ US servicemen dead, loss of multiple ($100s M in equipment) fighter jets, refueling planes, helis, etc, gas still ^ $1/gal more than before bombing, Strait closed, Iran extorting Billions(and still not cooperating),+ballistic ms, uranium not secured?🤡🫣🤨🤪