Kelly Vaughn

Missouri S&T 🏀

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We reimagined our runs scored in each inning analysis and looked at the chance of at least one run being scored in each inning. Many of you were talking about NRFI bets and looking at the data this way gives more insight into that problem. #baseball #mlb #sportsbetting #nrfi

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We analyzed OPS of hitters in each ballpark in 2023. While it's just one season's data, home team pitching and hitters still affect ballpark OPS. It's a fair measure of hitters' advantage or disadvantage in each park. #baseball #mlb #ballpark #ops

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Here is the next round of analysis on team performance including recent performance, opponent success, 1-run games, home/road and overall luck. #baseball #mlb

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Have MLB hitters gotten better? Have MLB pitchers gotten better? Here are the trends for batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage over time, along with a smoothed version of the trends. Let us know what you think has caused these stats to trend this way.

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With the 2024 MLB season underway, we know you are waiting patiently for your 2024 pineapple picks. We expect to be ready to make plays after roughly 30-40 games have been played by each team. Thanks for following Pineapple Parlays!

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What type of hitter is more valuable, a power hitter with a low BA, or a high-BA hitter with few HR? If we compare Luis Arraez to Kyle Schwarber using the same run value approach that we used to evaluate Acuna, you can see that Arraez had higher run value with less opportunity.

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Round 2 Pineapple upsets are here

JMU 12 over Duke 4 (64%)
Clemson 6 over Baylor 3 (46%)
Oakland 14 over NC State 11 (43%)

These are the most likely upsets for round 2
#MarchMadness #upset

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March Madness is here!! If you want to see the official Pineapple bracket, check out our Instagram page!

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Bill James' Pythagorean expectation is a formula used for estimating a team's winning percentage, using their runs scored and runs allowed. You need runs scored squared divided by the sum of runs scored squared and runs allowed squared. This gives us a measure of luck.

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Below is a plot of every homerun hit in 2023. You can see the typical combinations of launch angle and exit velocity. The average homerun appears to have an exit velocity around 105 mph and launch angle around 30 degrees. #baseball #MLB #homerun

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Hey Pineapples! We are starting a new Instagram page. If you prefer to get your sports picks on Instagram, find us at pineappleparlays. #baseball #MLB #sportsbetting

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Do homerun hitters strike out more? Short answer: yes. Hitters who hit more homeruns/PA also have more strikeouts/PA in general. #baseball #homerun #strikeout #MLB

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Striking batters out leads to a lower ERA in general. This plot shows all pitchers with over 50 IP in the 2023 season. The trend shows a fairly strong relationship between strikeouts and ERA. #baseball #MLB #strikeout

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We can use the expected runs plot shown previously to evaluate hitters. For example, assume the leadoff hits a single. Before, they were expected to score 0.52 runs and now we expect 0.9. Since 0.9-0.52=0.38, the value of the hit was 0.38 runs. Let's evaluate Acuna for the season

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We can look at the 2023 season and calculate the average number of runs scored in the remainder of an inning, given the situation. For example, if you have a runner on first and third and 1 out, you are expected to score 1.18 runs in the remainder of that inning.

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A great indicator of a good pitching staff is a low ERA and a great indicator of a good offense is OBP. We showed this before. Let's see how each MLB team performed in those two areas in 2023. Playoff teams are labeled as such.

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Senior #35 Micah Johnson

Thank you Micah 🤝

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A high ERA+ (low ERA) is the most highly linearly correlated stat. Look for low ERAs in winning teams. From the offensive side, look for high OBP. Teams who put runners on base should be very successful. Notice that stolen bases are not highly correlated with wins.

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These numbers are for MLB seasons since 2015, not including 2020. Look at the difference in importance between offensive and pitching stats. Pitching stats are clearly more important.

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In our last post you saw how some basic stats correlate with wins. We can measure the importance of these stats based on nonlinear relationships as well. When we use a machine learning algorithm called eXtreme Gradient Boosting to predict wins, this is what we get.