Kyle Baranko

Data science & product @paces_ai. Energy, epistemology & political economy

[Kyle Baranko @kyle__cb]

This is insane - these fellas at https://t.co/22cr5k4W9H came up with a "Compute Heat Rate" methodology (that I interpret as similar to Value of Lost Load for frontier AI datacenters)

and the price at which it remains profitable to run inference workloads is over 2x the market cap in ERCOT (5,000 / MWh) even when accounting for the capex of building the datacenter

[Kyle Baranko @kyle__cb]

Plz bro just one more doc bro i promise it'll drive alignment this time bro just read the doc i wrote bro

[Kyle Baranko @kyle__cb]

So we're all eagerly awaiting the results of Batch Zero, ERCOT's maiden voyage into system-wide cluster study processes for large loads paused by Abbott

Knowing exactly where these new load pockets will show up and how they'll impact the transmission network will drive interconnection feasibility and system impact for years to come

I'm currently working with a team supplementing ERCOT's official (and egregiously outdated) transmission planning cases with faster-moving, off-cycle projects and new upgrades revealed through utility planning documents and working groups

This has allowed us to develop a synthetic Batch 0 case months before ERCOT officially releases their updated version and begins producing study results...

If you're interested in chatting about this or collaborating, DM me. Would love to talk !

[Kyle Baranko @kyle__cb]

I’ve known this for a long time due to firsthand experiences from my father (orthopedic surgeon)

Healthcare system profit motive incentivizes interventionism at the expense of long term well being for patients

More surgery = more revenue, so everyone recommends the knife instead of PT and preventative care

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

A growing body of evidence suggests millions of surgeries performed each year are unnecessary. They cause needless physical pain and financial stress—and are a terrible waste of resources

[Kyle Baranko @kyle__cb]

@duncancampbell @paces_ai @james_mcwalter

[Kyle Baranko @kyle__cb]

@rich_toad @ShanuMathew93 Nah think bigger. Neuralink <> Grok integration

[PoIiMath @politicalmath]

The story of how the LOTR movies got made is an under-rated miracle. Peter Jackson was a schlock horror indie dork with 1 serious movie on his resume (Heavenly Creatures) when he pitched the Lord of the Rings trilogy

He pulled in insanely talented VFX artists by basically saying "hey, want to work on Lord of the Rings?" He made the trilogy on a comparative shoe-string budget (less than $100 million per movie).

He was absolutely terrified of the movies crashing and burning so he kept close to the book (especially for the first movie). He thought "we need the existing fans to come, we have no hope of success without the fans".

Everything came together for the LOTR movies, from tech advances to financing to the perfect actors. It was a project of love from the perfect director who was in love with his island home which just so happened to be the best spot on Earth to stand in for Middle Earth.

If you believe in miracles, the LOTR movies were a miracle. Every perfect thing came together at the right moment with the right people.

[Kyle Baranko @kyle__cb]

@wemple_stephen It sucks so bad to be on the receiving end of a slop grenade

[Kyle Baranko @kyle__cb]

Good product management resembles a good writing process

In both cases, your job is to relentlessly cut scope only to what is essential

[Kyle Baranko @kyle__cb]

Buying SpaceX stock is what it must’ve felt like to get in on the Dutch East India co in 1602

[Kyle Baranko @kyle__cb]

@forrest_f_ All anecdotal based on conference convos!

[Kyle Baranko @kyle__cb]

There is a riddle at the heart of energy markets that has been troubling me lately: the grid is so short on capacity that VPP customers are disenrolling from demand response programs because they're getting dispatched too often...

And yet battery developers can't get projects financed

How is that possible?

[Kyle Baranko @kyle__cb]

The people dying of thirst aren't buying water because we've made it illegal to charge what it's worth

Full post: https://t.co/FVwVgdnjiv

[Kyle Baranko @kyle__cb]

When market design suppresses volatility, it leaks out in unexpected and inconvenient places

Cap energy prices, and scarcity leaks into the capacity market

Administer the capacity market, and scarcity leaks into state subsidy programs

And when none of it produces prices high enough to justify participation, existing resources start walking away

[Tyler Norris @tylerhnorris]

Important to distinguish btwn non-firm interconnection (for bypassing grid constraints) vs. non-firm RA (for bypassing zonal or BA-wide gen constraints). The latter is what most deals have addressed to date and is what's most relevant for VPPs/distributed capacity, lots to come there. The former is what the USDOE/FERC ANOPR seeks to unlock at larger stage and represents significant white space.