Happy New Year.
It’s a good time to reflect.
Did I outperform $BTC?
No.
Did I get airdropped $HYPE, or catch any of the memecoin and AI metas?
No.
But did I stick to my system, grow as a trader, and make the most of the extraordinary market conditions?
Also no.
Important altcoin fundamentals:
1. Price
2. Momentum
3. Liquidity
4. Flows/positioning
5. Attention/narrative (almost entirely a derivative of the first 4)
Virtually everything else is noise for short to medium-term trading.
Most of the time, narratives are psyops added after the fact to justify or rationalise a big move.
If you missed the wick, don't force trades.
The better options are:
1. Wick refill - rebidding supports as the market drifts back towards the bottom ~1/3 of the wick.
2. Reclaim - buying strength away from the wick, reducing the likelihood that it drifts back to the low and allowing you to define your risk using the reclaimed level (closer to you), not the wick itself (invalidation 1000 miles away).
In simple terms: you want to be doing business close to the wick, or far away from it at a different level.
Don't diddle in the middle.
"Bitcoin is in a range."
Thanks for drawing 3 lines on the chart bro. I don't own any Bitcoin. I'm down 80% on my altcoins, but that is super helpful. You're the GOAT, truly. Really appreciate it.
Market goes up - Don’t chase, wait for a pullback
Market goes sideways - Don’t diddle in the middle, wait for range to resolve
Market goes down - Don’t knife catch, wait for reclaim
Somebody please help me I haven’t taken a trade since 2017
You probably don’t have a tariff/macro edge
Simplify your trading
Trade when people do stupid shit at obvious levels
Keep it short to medium-term
Trade less
Q1 Crypto: The dog has a hat, hot air rises, vape cabal caught another daily runner
Q2 Crypto: Watching this treasury auction to get a read on risk sentiment, the basis trade is blowing up and I’m growing concerned about credit spreads
I love this place
Market goes down: Wait for confirmation, buy strength not weakness, risk management first
Market goes sideways: Don’t diddle in the middle, log off and touch grass, don’t get chopped up
Market goes up: Don’t chase, don’t FOMO, there will be dips but also if you’re not allocated it’s over for you forever and this thing is never pulling back