I think it ultimately did inspire more turnout… I’m simply looking at the numbers not adding up on prediction markets vs the numbers from early voting. Check my number on this, but I believe it’s close to 80/20 split on contracts placed in favor of Paxton. That means the 20% was huge volume buyers on the front end. It’s cheap compared to media ad buys from a democrat perspective. I just don’t see it as smart money coming in like a traditional sports book. I’ve been wrong before, but I put my money where my mouth is on this one.
@radicalizedcent@1bigJawBone Historic low voter turnout for incumbent party for mid terms. Couple that with overwhelming “odds” republicans lose midterms… prediction markets, plus media polls… republicans stay home in theory. I believe it had the opposite effect in Texas based on early voting.
@rreactor Might as well make some $ Ron. I’m in. I don’t think people understand this isn’t a sports book, it’s a prediction market based on purchased contract and the platform takes the rake in the front end.