Silveraire

Investor | Silver | Gold

[Silveraire @LancasterDuchy]

So true…

[Gold Telegraph ⚡ @GoldTelegraph]

Warren Buffet: "True wealth is not having the biggest house or the most expensive car.

It is having enough money to live comfortably while being free to choose how you spend your time, who you work with, and the life you want to live.

In the end, time and freedom are the greatest forms of wealth".

Very true…

[Stern Drew @SternDrewCrypto]

🚨 Scott Bessent Just Gave A Terrifying Statement For The Markets: “I cannot control the bond market”… and “the house doesn’t win every hand.”

When asked if he regrets saying “I am the house now,” Scott Bessent admitted that the house doesn’t win every hand.

He also openly admits that he cannot control the bond market but can try to get people to slow down and think.

Interestingly, The BoJ and finance minister had threatened of bold actions to save the yen. Japan’s Yuto had even apologized for the measures prepared by the BoJ.

Then Boom, the US Treasury intervened and effectively took control of BoJ operations to stop Japan hiking rates and dumping its $1.4T in U.S. Treasuries, which would crack the US debt market and trigger a global liquidity crisis.

Scott Bessent then claimed that he has asymmetric information, called himself “the house” and dared traders to short the yen.

Soon after, @yutokanzakireal responded and warned that Japan is now no longer betting against the house but bringing the entire house down and the entire system will get margin called.

What followed was Japan dumping Treasuries, Japanese funds dumping global debt and investing back into Japanese bonds.

Just one Japanese fund broke the French debt market by selling their holdings to ZERO.

Why is this a terrifying statement by Bessent?

The global bond market is now breaking. U.S. Treasury Secretary admits that he cannot control the bond market and Traders are now doubling down against a Treasury market he says he can’t control.

This is no longer going to be a debt market collapse, it’s going to be a global liquidity crisis.

[Silveraire @LancasterDuchy]

@dividendology BRK-B

[Stern Drew @SternDrewCrypto]

🚨 Japan Just Broke The French Bond Market

One Tokyo fund (Sumitomo Mitsui DS) didn’t trim exposure. It dumped every French government bond it held and rotated into German Bunds and short-term Japanese paper.

Not a reduction. Full exit. Something that even shocked the Financial Street.

The France-Germany 10-year spread blew past 140 basis points, the widest gap since the euro crisis.

France's 5-year CDS has spiked up to 81 basis points, the highest since 2013. The higher the number, the greater the risk of national bankruptcy.

French domestic holders are now facing a deeper mark-to-market loss and a less liquid exit to sell into the same one-way market.

Japanese investors still sit on roughly ¥25 trillion of French debt, second only to American holders and this was a single manager’s book.

Carry trades that funded higher-yielding global debt market with cheap yen just got a live demo of how fast the unwind can hit.

When the bid from Japan disappears, the largest European sovereign market has to find new buyers at the same time its own government is arguing over a deficit plan that markets already distrust.

If more Japanese money follows the same exit, the same flow that once compressed euro spreads can reprice them in the other direction.

We now understand what @yutokanzakireal meant by saying “Japan is bringing the entire house down” in response to Scott Bessent’s “I am the house now” statement:

Ending cheap-yen funding is forcing a margin call on the leveraged global debt system built on the carry trade and not just the U.S. leverage.

France just got the first real look at what Japan’s wealth returning to the homeland looks like.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Nvidia, $NVDA, surges to its highest level on record, now worth $5.7 trillion.

If you invested $10,000 in Nvidia 10 years ago, you would now have $1,580,000.

[Silveraire @LancasterDuchy]

I knew it!

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump says higher US inflation will "pay off" US debt "very rapidly" in response to total US debt rising above $40 trillion.

"I know I'm the best in the world... you can pay off the debt through other means. But the one thing that you can do is pay it off through growth, and we've never had growth like this," Trump said.

US Treasury yields hit a new high of the day after the statement.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Global agriculture prices are rising rapidly:

The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index surged +11.5% in Q3 2026, its largest quarterly increase since Q1 2022 and 4th-largest increase in 10 years.

This index tracks 10 key agricultural commodities, including grains, sugar, dairy, meat, and vegetable oils.

Corn and wheat prices in Chicago alone both surged +15.0%, while soybeans gained +13.0%.

Over the last year, agricultural prices have now risen +20.0%.

Global food inflation pressures are intensifying.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Nike stock, $NKE, crashes another -6% to its lowest level since September 2013 after posting weaker than expected earnings.

The stock is now down -82% from its record high, erasing -$230 billion in market cap.

[Dr.Bryte @thedrbryte]

Charlie Munger was 31 years old. He was divorced, broke, and watching his nine-year-old son die of leukemia. He died at 99 worth $2.6 billion.

In 1953 he went through a divorce at 29. His wife got the house and most of what he had. He moved into a room and drove a beat-up yellow Pontiac. When someone asked why he kept the car, he said it was to discourage gold diggers.

He was making $275 a month as a lawyer at Wright & Garrett in Los Angeles. Then his son Teddy was diagnosed with leukemia. There was no treatment. The survival rate was close to zero. Munger had no health insurance.

His friend Rick Guerin said Munger would go to the hospital, hold his son for a while, then walk the streets of Pasadena crying.

Teddy died in 1955. Munger was 31.

He never let it destroy him. He said envy, resentment, revenge, and self-pity are disastrous modes of thought. Self-pity gets pretty close to paranoia. He said whenever you think some situation or some person is ruining your life, it is actually you who are ruining your life.

He rebuilt everything. He did real estate deals that made him $1.4 million. He started an investment partnership that returned 19.8 percent annually for 13 years. He became vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway in 1978.

His advice to young people was three rules. Do not sell anything you would not buy yourself. Do not work for anyone you do not respect and admire. Work only with people you enjoy.

And one line that held everything together. The safest way to get what you want is to try to deserve what you want.

He gave away so many Berkshire shares that his fortune would have been over $10 billion. He kept $2.6 billion. He did not need the rest.

The man who walked the streets crying at 31 spent the next 68 years proving that you do not overcome tragedy. You outlast it.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

US Treasuries are experiencing one of the worst bear markets in history:

The 30Y US Treasury price return index has dropped -60% since 2020, to ~107, matching its lowest level in 2000.

In other words, in just 6 years, the index has erased nearly 20 years of gains.

By comparison, US nominal GDP has grown +63% over the same period.

This comes as the 30Y Treasury yield has surged +478 basis points from its intraday low of 0.71% set in March 2020.

To put this into perspective, its previous largest drawdown over the past 40 years was -35% during the 2008 Financial Crisis.

We are witnessing a historic bond market decline.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Spot gold and silver prices extend losses to nearly -4% and -5% on the day as the US 10Y Note Yield rises to a fresh 19-year high.

Gold and silver have erased a combined -$1.2 trillion in market cap today.

[VBL’s Ghost @Sorenthek]

The World Is Running Short of Silver and Copper
https://t.co/WdfV9hvflb

[Gold Telegraph ⚡ @GoldTelegraph]

"China's getting close to the levels of gold holdings of the United States... They want to dominate, whether it's the EV space, AI, or critical metals; I would say it's the gold space as well”

- Sean Boyd

This is from the leader of the second-biggest gold producer on the planet

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

If AI can trade stocks so well, why are all these AI-managed portfolios at Fidelity, Schwab and elsewhere struggling to even beat the S&P 500?
And where are the AI portfolios winning the U.S. Investing Championship?
Backtests and predictions are easy. Show me the audited, real-money results. That’s where the bullshit stops.
The answer is because it can't. There is zero evidence of any enduring or consistent results from purely AI or computer manager portfolios that can even outperform the S&P 500. Fact.

[Silveraire @LancasterDuchy]

This is crazy…

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal for a 7-day ceasefire and has told aides he expects to begin bombing Iran after the November midterms, per WSJ.

Iran’s proposal would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz and resumed nuclear talks in return for the US lifting its blockade of Iranian ports.

Trump is reportedly skeptical Iran will meet his demands and has told his staff that he sees a renewed bombing campaign as likely.

Today marks day 209 of the Iran War.

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

The Fed is printing money to buy US Treasury bills... more than during Covid.

- Covid: ~$320B
- Last 9 months: ~$355B

Everyone is talking about the Fed hike... no one is talking about Warsh printing money Covid-style to buy UST bills.

At the same time, Bessent is issuing more UST bills to buy back US long-term debt.

In other words, the Treasury buyback is nothing else than QE in disguise.

We don't own enough hard assets for what's coming.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The last time US Treasury yields were this high, total US national debt stood at just $8.9 trillion.

Today, US debt stands at $40.1 trillion. That's +$31.2 trillion more, or over 4.5 TIMES higher.

This means every 1 percentage point in the average cost of servicing the debt now translates to ~$401 billion per year in interest expense.

In 2007, the same 1 percentage point translated to just ~$89 billion.

That’s an additional ~$312 BILLION in annual interest expense for every percentage point increase in borrowing cost.

This is a vastly different situation than it was 19 years ago.

The bond market matters more now than ever.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Unbelievable.

3 hours later and the 10Y Note Yield is now above 5.20% for the first time in 19 years.

The 10Y Note Yield is now up +50 basis points in 30 days and +30 basis points in 2 days.

Even more remarkable is that the average American has no idea this is happening. Yet.

The bond market is imploding in front of our eyes.

[Barchart @Barchart]

U.S. M2 Money Supply jumps to new all-time high of $23.34 Trillion 🤑

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Absolutely incredible.

The US 10Y Note Yield is now up +70 basis points this month.

We are now above 5.15% for the first time since June 2007.

The bond market is trading like the Fed is hiking rates by 50 basis points at a time.

Q4 is going to be interesting to say the least.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The US 10Y Note Yield is now moving in a literal straight-line higher, up to 5.13%.

This is no longer an issue that we have months or years to address.

This is unsustainable.