Lance Zimmerman

Spent my childhood summers working fields and fixing fence. Now, using my knowledge to help farmers succeed at feeding the world.

[Lance Zimmerman @lancezimm]

@KINGS1973

[Lance Zimmerman @lancezimm]

@KINGS1973 Steve, failure is a pretty strong word. You don’t think the checkoff did anything to change beef demand for the better? Might be the first time I’ve ever vehemently disagreed with you on this platform. HAHAHA!

[Lance Zimmerman @lancezimm]

@KINGS1973 Yes and no, you have to look at it differently today. Select carcass numbers are down 25% since September because we’ve now stripped all the Mexican-origin cattle from the market-ready fed supply.

[Lance Zimmerman @lancezimm]

@blakealbers Everyone seems to miss that prices are all relative.

One of those steaks would cost you around $75 at a fine-dining restaurant, and you still have to buy the sides and drink.

Consumers are getting bargain at retail today, eating at home like Ruth's Chris for 1/2 the price.

[Lance Zimmerman @lancezimm]

@RealMNchiefsfan is it appropriate to request a Butker film review? #onlyweirdgames

[Lance Zimmerman @lancezimm]

@blakealbers As my dad was in the hospital, that was his last gift to my mom before he passed away. He asked my brother and me to make sure we got the electrician scheduled to install it. 😔

[Lance Zimmerman @lancezimm]

@KINGS1973 @sd1459 @ckleene Correct. When the year started, the cattle supply suggested needing to remove around 3,000 hd/wk capacity just to get packers to a breakeven for the year. Yet, here we are trying to add around 4,000 hd/wk.

[Lance Zimmerman @lancezimm]

@ckleene @KINGS1973 You're pretty darn close. My per cap supply forecast has looked rough the last two years because of surging imports and carcass weights. We've been steadier longer than I'd have thought otherwise. Buy I have a 4 lb. decline from this year to 2028.

[Lance Zimmerman @lancezimm]

@KINGS1973 I'm traveling the next several days for work and travel baseball ... the fun stuff. I will work through some of this though. Thanks!

[Lance Zimmerman @lancezimm]

@KINGS1973 @ckleene And I should add more of that 4 mil head decline was cow liquidation slowing. The next cuts will be more from heifer slaughter (and some steers too).

[Lance Zimmerman @lancezimm]

@KINGS1973 @ckleene Correct. Cattle slaughter lost 4 mil head from 2022 to 2025. Expect at least a 2 mil drop from 2025 to 2028. That maybe light. We gained 1 mil. head from beef-dairy (less veal calves, better viability, less dairy replacements). That and import growth could undermine the rebuild.

[Lance Zimmerman @lancezimm]

@ckleene @KINGS1973 This is the more pertinent question. Everyone post-feedyard is getting their tails kicked today. That isn't sustainable. At the magnitude and rate it is happening, this typically predicates massive structural shifts in the sector. This concerns me the most today.

[Lance Zimmerman @lancezimm]

@KINGS1973 Fair. I'll still defend that beef is high, but not a luxury. Let me run this on the wholesale price adjusted by a yield loss. What are the approximate yields to take boneless ribeyes, boneless striploins and tenderloins to a retail tray?

[Lance Zimmerman @lancezimm]

@KINGS1973 Also, I agree with you completely. We will push the $9/lb. area later this year. I think it is 50/50 whether we get there during the holidays or not. A $9 average next year seems likely. Possibly a $9.50-$10/lb. annual average by cycle highs.

[Lance Zimmerman @lancezimm]

@KINGS1973 I could buy enough of those to justify the plane ticket west. 😂

[Lance Zimmerman @lancezimm]

@KINGS1973 Dang, Steve. I missed the trend on Easter ribeyes. I need to celebrate the holiday with a different family. HAHAHA!

[Lance Zimmerman @lancezimm]

@KINGS1973 I shake my head every time I look at that quote. Some buyers are going to have some explaining to do when they are significantly cheaper in May. Chasing the thin spot market usually ends poorly.

[Lance Zimmerman @lancezimm]

@RussKnight_Ag @coburnkev Yeah, beef vs dairy, you’d assume beef is better at conception and calf mortality rates than dairies. However, I think higher calf prices are a factor in gains across the board, and especially on dairies with beef-dairy crosses being much more of a profit center.