@QuentinDempster@AlboMP@JEChalmers Yes. Who knows that Bob Menzies said what politicians aren't permitted to say today: that land prices must come down? Just before the Great Depression.
DAVID MURRIN SHARES HIS BIGGEST PREDICTIONS YET (& ANSWERS YOUR QS) – FULL LCI WEBINAR RECORDING REPLAY!
THIS WEEK'S LCI REPORT IS NOW READY TO VIEW!
David Murrin joined me this week for one of the most thought-provoking LCI LIVE sessions we've held to date! I’ve had heaps of positive feedback from those that attended – from beginning to end, it was a fascinating discussion.
We were able to answer all questions that were submitted, and also took questions live during the event. The recording additionally features a brief cameo appearance from Andrew Pancholi who joined the session from his home in London.
As always, David didn't hold back. He is one of the most intelligent men I've met.
One of the reasons I enjoy interviewing him is that it doesn't seem to matter what question you throw his way, he almost always has an informed, well-considered answer. Whether you agree with him or not, his ability to connect ideas and think several steps ahead is genuinely impressive.
During the discussion David argued that the world is already in the early stages of what he considers World War III – not a conventional conflict, but a long-duration struggle between major powers that he believes will peak around 2030.
He explained why this conflict is fundamentally inflationary, why bond yields could move far higher than most investors expect, and why he believes governments across the West have largely lost control of their debt dynamics.
We also explored China's growing military and shipbuilding capability, the implications for Australia and New Zealand, whether Taiwan remains the flashpoint everyone assumes it is, and why David believes the strategic landscape is becoming increasingly dangerous for anyone living in Australia and New Zealand.
Where can you hide?
That question is one that came up repeatedly. David’s answer – look in the mirror. And if you want to understand what he meant by that – you’ll have to tune into the recording!
For investors, David outlined where he would – and would not – place capital as we move toward the latter part of this decade.
He discussed commodities, energy, gold and silver, why he remains sceptical of many mainstream equity markets, and why he believes inflation has much further to run.
The conversation also ventured into some unexpected territory. David shared his thoughts on entropy and historical cycles, whether human civilisation is largely governed by repeating patterns, and even answered a question on the most contrarian investment thesis he can imagine – a response that surprised everyone in attendance “we are not alone.”
I’ll get David back to investigate that at a later date.
Whether you agree with David's conclusions or not, this was a fascinating discussion covering geopolitics, war cycles, inflation, commodities, investing and the future trajectory of the global economy.
The sides, recording, and transcript are available in the report.
https://t.co/5rtlDBksIR
THIS WEEK'S LAND CYCLE INVESTOR! The property crash we have to have is already underway.....?!
In this week's report I share on-the-ground evidence from across the market, revisit the striking similarities between today and the period immediately before the COVID mid-cycle recession, examine the warning signs flashing for stocks and property, and dig deeper into the big question land cycle subscribers may now be asking, following last week's LIVE event: does the downturn arrive in 2027, or does history stretch it out until 2028?...
A client of mine approached me a couple of weeks ago to enquire about property investment in his Self-Managed Super Fund (SMSF). We had a productive chat – put a plan in place, and he went back to his broker to arrange formal finance approval.
The estimated budget he’d been given at the point of discussion was $850,000. Two weeks later, his budget had been slashed to $500,000. In light of the Federal election and rising rates, his lender had tightened what they were prepared to lend considerably (despite him not being directly impacted by the changes.)
It’s only one example, but I’ve heard many similar stories across the industry.
It’s all well and good wanting to buy in a falling market or after the crash, it’s the classic land cycle playbook - wait for the crash, buy in. But when it comes to it, borrowing anything in a downturn can be problematic. I recall during the 2008 GFC (Global Financial Crisis), banks globally were far more restrictive on what they'd lend (if at all) while suffering huge losses in bank capital.
Therefore, even before we reach the ultimate downturn, the changes announced in the Federal Budget are going to have a dramatic impact on prices.
You have to feel for the first home buyers who stepped in on the Federal Government’s 5% deposit scheme. They will soon be underwater, locked in, and unable to sell or convert their loans into investment loans.
It will likely be a year to 18-months at least, until we see a dramatic change in policy to pump demand back into the property market. Still - the ongoing middle east conflict will prevent the RBA going back to the cash rate settings we had in the early part of this cycle.
Are property Prices already crashing?...
All over social media real estate agents, furious at the changes to CGT (Capital Gains Tax) and NG (Negative Gearing) are estimating prices have already dropped 10-15% in the biggest capitals – Sydney in particular....
- What happens from here?
- How long before the stock market crashes?
- Will AI disrupt the land cycle?
If you caught the live ZOOM event I did with Andrew Pancholi last week you will have heard him talk about 2028 being the year to watch.
Drawing on the esoteric influences behind the land cycle - including a brief dip into Louise McWhirter's book Astrology and Stock Market Forecasting (1937), I also investigate whether we should be flagging 2027 or 2028 as the crash year.
This is one not to miss! It sets us up nicely for more analysis into the trends that will take us out of this cycle, and into the next.
https://t.co/9v2ml3Yqet
@LandCycle It was a great interview. I'll be sending you an email soon with a roadmap of the indicators I'm watching for the turn - may be helpful, may be useless, time will tell but you may at least find it interesting 😉
It was fantastic to see so many of you join me and Andrew Pancholi on Wednesday evening for another LCI LIVE Zoom event. Thanks so much to all that sent in questions and engaged with the session.
Andrew - is the creator of the Market Timing Report and a director for the Foundation for the Study of Cycles and he is one of the best forecasters I’ve come across.
I wanted him to join me to answer all your questions and go over the key dates and time windows for the end of the land cycle that may shape both economic and geopolitical events as we move toward, what I continue to believe, will be a very difficult period from late 2026 into 2027 - leading to a recession in 2028.
Andrew’s focus is on a wide range of cycles – not just the 18-year cycle – however, as I stress throughout this publication, the 18-year land cycle is not only a harmonic of many of the major long-wave cycles, but because of land’s unique position in the economy, it effectively acts like gravity to all economic cycles.
This is why Edward Dewey referred to the 18-year cycle in his landmark book Cycles: The Science of Prediction (1947) as "the most important economic cycle" we have.
Land is the foundation of the economy. Small businesses, banking, finance, construction, retail spending and credit creation are all effectively choreographed around the land market.
When transaction volumes are high, and speculation is running rife, these businesses thrive.
More people buying and selling property means more removals, more furniture sales, more whitegoods purchased, more renovations, more insurance policies written, more finance commissions, more advertising revenue for media companies, more legal and conveyancing work, more accommodation demand and construction activity...
However, toward the end of the cycle, as interest rates rise, credit tightens and transaction volumes begin falling. Even before prices collapse significantly, the slowdown in turnover alone starts pushing many small businesses into recession because the flow of economic activity tied to the land market begins drying up.
If you understand nothing else, you can still make exceptional long-term investment decisions simply by understanding the land cycle and its main driver - the thirst for economic rent.
It remains, that if the economic rent from land and natural resources isn’t collected and returned to the community on whose behalf that value was created, you will spend a lifetime paying taxes to fund the government, which spends most of its time protecting the rights of the largest monopolists who benefit from controlling large chucks of our land and natural resources.
The finance sector for example, that now effectively mortgages access to the earth itself, trading the debt on a multi trillion dollar derivatives market.
Big AI and technology companies which control of huge amounts of land, data centres, communications systems and enclosure of the electromagnetic sphere that everyone in a modern economy needs to function.
At the same time, mining and energy companies export the our coal and gas overseas while we pay rocketing costs to fuel our homes.
Regular readers of this publication will already have a broad understanding of this - and how the first and second halves of the land cycle differ and what that means for portfolio positioning - and real estate investing.
However, in the weeks ahead, I'll dedicate more time focusing on the first half of the next cycle and the opportunities that may emerge through the downturn. The idea being that readers can begin preparing now rather than reacting emotionally later.
For now however, below is a summary of some of the major themes Andrew covered during the session.
Andrew discussed several key dates. I have bolded these in the body of the report for those that do not want to listen to the entire recording.
Other points discussed include
- The key dates and timing windows Andrew is watching into 2026–2029
- Why years ending in 7 have historically been dangerous for markets
- Whether the ASX and Australian banks may have already topped
- The growing similarities between today’s AI boom and the dot-com bubble
- Gold, silver and whether precious metals could initially crash before surging higher
- Why bond yields are becoming a major problem for the global financial system
- The Strait of Hormuz, Middle East tensions and the risk of an oil shock
- War cycles, geopolitical escalation and China’s possible involvement ahead
-Why commodities can continue rising even while broader markets weaken
- The 100-year cycle, the 90-year cycle and whether the real danger period is 2028 rather than 2029
This is undoubtedly one of the most well attended live events that LCI has hosted. Click the link below to watch it now!
https://t.co/dSTaUJYeZJ
📘 "Cheating: The Human Project and Its Betrayal" by Fred Harrison (@geophilos) is here.
Economists are already calling it a thought-provoking and timely read on the systems shaping society today.
Hear what they’re saying 👇🏼
This week's The Macro & The Mortgage Podcast with Leith Van Onselen @leithvo from Macrobusiness discusses the latest house price and mortgage data, the fallout from the federal budget, and New Zealand's latest house price data.
We also respond to several spicy viewer comments.
https://t.co/X3sFpOq96L
THE BUDGET TAX GRAB THAT COULD DEEPEN THE 2028 RECESSION...
I was not applauding the budget this week. Not necessarily because of the direction of the most controversial policies, more so because of the timing.
Australia’s economy remains heavily tied to rising land values.
If governments are going to wind back the tax incentives that have driven property speculation for decades as we approach a major cyclical downturn, there needs to be something big on the other side to stimulate the ‘real’ economy.
I’m talking about meaningful income tax reform - policies that genuinely lift productivity.
This budget offered nothing of the sort. It was a tax grab.
I’m going to focus specifically on the property market impact here – particularly the grandfathering of negative gearing and the changes to the capital gains tax discount.
Because recessions that emerge at the end the land cycle are often deeper and longer lasting than mid-cycle recessions.
The forthcoming recession will impact vast swathes of the economy that has choreographed itself around the finance, insurance and real estate sectors (the FIRE sectors).
Two points are therefore relevant:
1. The extent of the bust depends on the magnitude of the boom. Every boom is followed by a bust. The severity of the downturn depends on how much speculation in land prices there has been during the upswing. The more inflated the land price market, the harder the eventual correction.
2. Government policy shapes the crash - and reinflates the cycle. The extent of the damage during a downturn is often determined by government intervention - such as homebuyer grants, mortgage holidays, and stimulus payments. These can soften the blow and prevent widespread foreclosures.
Hence, implementing policies at this stage of the cycle that discourage investor activity in the property market (although not bad in themselves) will inevitably intensify the pain once the downturn takes hold.
In this week's Land Cycle Investor report you'll discover..
- Why the budget changes to negative gearing and CGT may intensify the downturn into 2028 - I strip away the market spin and show you how it will really impact the economy.
- Will rents rise?
- Will investors flee the market?
- Will the government backflip in 2027?
- What will be the real outcomes of this reform..both good, and bad? I drill into the detail with charts and data plus much more!
- PLUS The 45-year historical repeat that's taking us into a mega downturn
***EXCLUSIVE! - FRED HARRISON: THE END OF THE LAND CYCLE AND THE GREAT DESTRUCTION OF CIVILISATION***
It was a pleasure to sit down with Fred Harrison this week to discuss his latest book, Cheating: The Human Project and its Betrayal, which is out now.
Originally intended to be Fred's final publication, the project has since expanded into a two-part series, with the second instalment due for release next year.
Fred’s analysis in Cheating goes far beyond the usual discussion around greed, monopolies and rent-seeking.
Most economists talk about “economic rent” as simply money extracted through land, banking or monopoly power.
Fred takes it much further.
He argues the system is effectively feeding off human energy itself. People’s time, productivity, creativity and effort are constantly being drained into systems designed around extraction instead of genuine progress.
It’s not just an economic problem anymore. Rent seeking has become cultural and psychological. People work harder than ever, yet feel further behind.
He also gets into territory very few economists are even discussing properly yet – AI.
Fred sees artificial intelligence as either one of the greatest opportunities humanity has ever had, or one of the biggest threats, depending on who controls the benefits from it.
If the gains from AI are captured by the same systems already monopolising land, housing, finance and resources, the divide between those who own and those who work will become extreme.
Fred’s warning, however, goes even further than economics.
He believes the downturn approaching into 2028 could become the point where four major crises collide at once – a debt and financial crisis, escalating geopolitical conflict and war, the disruption from artificial intelligence and technological displacement, and the growing environmental and resource crisis tied to climate and energy systems.
Separately, each one would be difficult enough to manage. Together, Fred argues they will overwhelm political and economic systems already weakened by decades of speculation, inequality and short-term thinking.
That’s why he says this cycle may be different from all the others before it. A genuine threat to the stability of civilisation as we currently know it.
Honestly, there’s nobody else quite like Fred Harrison when it comes to getting to the absolute core of it all.
Plenty of analysts can tell you prices are too high or a recession is coming.
Fred pulls apart the machinery underneath the entire system – land, speculation, debt, power, monopoly and the way societies organise themselves around them.
He gets right into the nitty gritty of what actually drives civilisation forward – and what ultimately pulls it apart.
https://t.co/Wb0duTlsSu
Content from last week's podcast - The Macro & The Mortgage (available on YouTube at @leithvo or @landcycleinvestor) hitting the press.
Must be a slow news day! :)
https://t.co/evrsWrgctl
***WE ARE HERE - 18-YEARS LATER: THE NEXT FINANCIAL COLLAPSE IS NOW IN PLAY***
Consumer sentiment is rolling over across the developed world, sitting at or near multi-year lows.
In the U.S., the University of Michigan index has fallen to its lowest on record.
Europe isn’t any better – confidence remains deeply negative, particularly in Germany, still weighed down by energy shocks and cost pressures.
In Australia, sentiment has been stuck at recessionary levels for months.
The backdrop is clear.
Confidence is weak, conditions are tightening, and the cycle is nearing its end point.
Trump is now poised to preside over what would be the second recession in the U.S. since the 2008 financial crisis.
The only other President who has historically presided over both a mid-and end-of land cycle recession, was George Bush, who was president during both the dot-com mid-cycle bubble, and the 2008 sub-prime crisis.
To see how this is going to play out, we don’t need to look back too far, either.
In June of 2019, Trump took a 72-hour trip to Japan and South Korea, proclaiming to his counterparts at the meetings and public events, that he had built ‘the best economy in the world.’
At the same time, almost un-noticed, the US yield curve inverted.
Within the context of the land cycle it was enormously significant.
It was 7 years post the point at which land values had started to make their ascent after the 2008 sub-prime financial crisis (in 2012) – marking the mid-way point of the land cycle.
A recession was nigh.
If you recall, back in 2019, it seemed that every time Trump’s critics attacked him, the DOW reached a new all-time high!
By December 2019, it was trading at over 100% of GDP!
Warren Buffet once said this metric is ‘probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.’
In other words, the DOW was significantly overvalued.
However, at the time, Trump couldn’t have been more jubilant!
He was channelling Yale economist Irving Fisher (one of the most respected economists in the world, a Yale professor, and widely trusted), who famously said in 1929 that stocks had reached what seemed a permanently high plateau.
Fisher’s comment appeared in an interview with the New York Times in October 1929 - reflecting the widespread optimism of the time.
It reinforced the belief man had that the economy and stock market would continue to grow for ever! It was the get rich quick era.
His statement, however, became one of the most infamous examples of misplaced economic optimism.
The stock market crashed almost immediately after. Irving Fisher lost a multimillion-dollar fortune in the demise. He was forced to sell his home and spent years trying to rebuild his broken reputation.
In 2019, Trump didn’t need the NYT to announce his prophecy – he used Twitter to signal his jubilation.
To land cycle watchers, it was the red flag needed to show we were close to the mid-cycle peak and subsequent collapse…
And now it's just happened again...
In this week's Land Cycle Investor report you'll discover..
- The eerie similarities between Trump’s first term, the 2019 inversion and today’s market setup
- The historical parallels between 1973, 1990, 2008 and the current cycle peak
- The timing window that's almost on us for a stock market collapse, and the cycle theory behind it
- How far will stocks fall.. looking at historical repeats
- Jeremy Grantham’s latest warning...
- Foreclosure data in the US compared to this time last cycle, and FHA delinquencies..
- Why Australia’s housing market is far weaker beneath the surface than the headline median prices suggest
- How far will median prices fall in Australia as we move through 2027?
- The latest Cotality report warning of a downturn..
And much, MUCH more!
Click here to access this week's LCI Report NOW!
https://t.co/xdtti0779n
ALSO!
***THE LAND CYCLE – A MAJOR NEW PAPER BY CATHERINE CASHMORE***
This week saw the release of a major new paper I've written, warning that Australia is in the late stages of a historically recurring land price cycle that has repeatedly preceded major economic downturns in Western economies.
Subscribers can download the paper directly from the LCI Website here.
Cross posted from the formal release:
Drawing on more than 250 years of historical evidence, this paper contends that speculative booms in land values are not random events, but part of a recurring economic rhythm that typically unfolds over approximately 18 years.
Key points:
- Land speculation, fuelled by expanding credit and reinforced by tax systems that reward unearned gains from rising land values, lies at the heart of recurring financial crises.
- As land prices rise, increasing amounts of capital are diverted away from productive sectors of the economy and into speculation.
- Debt expands against inflated land values, while productive activity becomes progressively weaker relative to the growing debt burden.
- Eventually, the system becomes unstable and vulnerable to collapse.
The paper argues that this process has repeated with remarkable consistency across multiple countries and historical periods. Researchers, including Fred Harrison, Fred Foldvary, Homer Hoyt, Roy Wenzlick, and Edward Dewey, independently identified recurring boom-bust cycles tied to land markets, construction activity, and credit expansion.
Many of these analysts successfully forecast major downturns years in advance, including the early 1990s recession and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC).
A key argument of the paper is that the 2008 GFC was not an unforeseeable “black swan” event, but the predictable culmination of a mature land and credit cycle. Georgist economists Fred Harrison and Fred Foldvary both forecast the timing of the crisis more than a decade earlier by applying land cycle analysis.
Their work demonstrated how speculative increases in land values eventually overwhelm productive economic activity, leaving the financial system highly exposed once credit conditions tighten.
The Land Cycle concludes with the solutions that can be found in reforming the tax system. By shifting taxation toward land values and away from productive activity, to reduce speculation and stabilise the economy.
DOWNLOAD THE PAPER IN THE LCI REPORTS SECTION OF THE WEBSITE.
CRASH NOW OR CRASH LATER? VIEW THE REPLAY OF THE LCI LIVE Q&A ZOOM EVENT
A massive thank you to everyone who jumped onto the LIVE zoom event on Thursday, and sent through questions. It was great to see so many of you there.
We had heaps of questions (as always), and managed to cover a really wide mix of topics.
We spent a fair bit of time on where we actually sit in the cycle right now, and how that tension between 2026 and 2027 is shaping up.
There were a lot of questions around timing – whether to act now or hold off – and that naturally led into a deeper look at the timing you need to focus on in relation to the decade cycle.
Could equity markets crash this year? Next?...
We also dug into what the data is showing on the ground – particularly listings, building activity, and some of the early signals coming out of more credit-sensitive sectors.
A few of you asked about global factors as well, so we looked at energy markets and geopolitical risks, and how those kinds of events tend to show up late in the cycle.
We covered off on some leading indicators too - looking at building stocks in the U.S.
Pete shared his thoughts on investment strategies to protect wealth at the end of the cycle - and much more!
In this week's report you'll discover..
– where we currently sit in the land cycle, and the growing tension between 2026 and 2027 as potential turning points
– how the decade cycle is aligning, particularly the historical behaviour of years ending in 6 versus 7 and the flash points to watch in each year.
– what we’re seeing in real-time data – listings, building activity, changes to asking prices, long term trends etc.
– why building stocks and development activity remain some of the clearest leading indicators of a downturn
– how global factors – particularly energy markets and geopolitical tensions – could act as the trigger rather than the cause
– practical considerations for investors weighing whether to buy, hold, or sell into this phase of the cycle
The recording, slides and transcript are all in the report.
https://t.co/gcCMgZELIG
"....vast areas of prime real estate have been turned into eyesores, plagued by graffiti and overgrown with weeds.
The Herald Sun used the City of Melbourne’s Open Data to map the 30 commercial developments larger than 1500 sqm that were approved before 2022 in the CBD but had not started construction.
While the exact value of the land is difficult to verify, previous sales and valuations of the 30 properties totalled more than $2.2bn, with planned developments on the sites exceeding $11.1bn in value.
The data revealed a trail of approved but empty building sites, with some owners holding permits for years without any sign of construction...."
https://t.co/JxwnbBuDUM
In this week's LCI report, we'll revisit the decade cycle to assess where markets are likely positioned as we move through 2026 and into 2027.
Drawing on more than a century of data from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we'll examine what years ending in “6” have the closest correlation to 2026 and how it informs the forecast for equity markets for the remainder of this year.
We'll then turn to 2027, narrowing the likely monthly window in which an equity market downturn may emerge as the land cycle reaches its final phase!
The decade cycle data for this report has been provided by market analyst and forecaster Kalvert K. Clark.
The written report will present the analysis and charts for 2026 and 2027 - including an update on leading indicators in the real estate markets.
Then in this week's interview, Kalvert will extrapolate on the written report, with some more detail on his examination and analysis into market cycles.
In this week's LCI report, you'll discover..
- What the decade cycle is showing for 2026 and 2027
- Why years ending in “6” don’t behave the way people expect
- Is the year going to end higher, or lower?
- Which past year gives the closest correlation to today’s market and the roadmap for the remainder of 2026.
- Based on this year's update, what the data suggests for major equity markets in 2027
- An update on Australia's real estate markets and the forecast for 2026.
- An update on one of the best leading indicators for the end of the land cycle..
https://t.co/7k9W03dEC1
PLUS...
THIS WEEK'S PRESENTATION WITH MARKET ANALYST AND FORECASTER KALVERT K. CLARK....
Kalvert K. Clark has spent decades studying cyclical patterns in markets – from short trading rhythms to the big clocks that drive expansions and busts.
A long-time close friend of mine, Kalvert has a rare knack for making cyclical behaviour intuitive without dumbing it down.
For around ten years, Kalvert lectured and conducted research on markets with Phil Anderson at EIS (Economic Indicator Services.)
His analysis is extremely helpful in understanding the decade cycle – and the information is both timeless and incredibly valuable.
In this presentation Kalvert begins with analysis for 2026.
He then expands on his views following last week’s interview with economic forecaster and astrologer Jonathan Evans, discussing the work of forecasters Louise McWhirter and Donald Bradley.
In particular, Kalvert outlines how Bradley’s techniques can be applied not just to broad market timing, but to individual securities, using examples such as ANZ Group Holdings to demonstrate how these methods are interpreted in practice.
The presentation finishes with a look at what 2027 may have in store for traders – including identifying key turning points in the year.
https://t.co/7k9W03dEC1
LCI HITS THE NATIONAL PRESS... AGAIN..
After featuring in a recent Daily Telegraph article, the research at Land Cycle Investor was picked once up again this week in an interview with https://t.co/faVOtOCJs2.
You can read the full report here.
https://t.co/EZOZzCekWX
And also in the online magazine Elite Agent via the link below..
https://t.co/e2CiPUIQ1V
FINALLY - TO THOSE THAT ATTENDED THE ALLIANCE FAT TAIL INVESTMENT RESEARCH EVENT
Finally, a big thank you to the LCI subscribers who are also FTIR subscribers and took the time to come over and say hello at the Fat Tail Investment Research Alliance event at the Windsor Hotel in Melbourne, on Thursday night.
It was a pleasure to meet so many of you and to have the chance to discuss some of the research I’m working on at Land Cycle Investor.
I’ll look to organise some future meet-ups so more subscribers have the opportunity to connect and continue the discussion around the work.
https://t.co/7k9W03dEC1
Looking forward to reviewing a preview of Fred Harrison's new book Cheating - The Human Project and its Condition
Fred is one of the most accurate economic forecasters of modern times. He has an intricate understanding of the dynamics that drive boom and bust cycles, and how to cure the injustice that mankind has built into the system.
LCI interview with Fred coming soon.. @geophilos