Catherine Cashmore

Land Cycle Investor -
Director of Cashmore & Co - President of Prosper Australia -

[Catherine Cashmore @CC_CASHMORE]

1/7 In 1890 Henry George made his way to Australia. Twice a day, he gave lectures, for 3.5 months, to packed halls across Australia and New Zealand.

From The Standard, 1890

"Imagine then, for two hours this man walking to and fro in his narrow slip of platform.....

[Catherine Cashmore @CC_CASHMORE]

Auction results

National

Preliminary Clearance Rate 49%
61% this time last year

Scheduled: 1440
Reported: 864
Sold at Auction: 425
Sold Prior: 201
Withdrawn: 243
Passed In: 179
Private Treaty Sales: 6570
Median sale price (houses): $1,185,000
Median sale price (units): $922,000
Total value sold (million): $352

Sydney

Preliminary Clearance Rate 52%
64% this time last year

Scheduled: 712
Reported: 428
Sold at Auction: 221
Sold Prior: 136
Withdrawn: 158
Passed In: 40
Private Treaty Sales: 2084
Median sale price (houses): $1,725,000
Median sale price (units): $1,110,000
Total value sold (million): $211

Melbourne

Preliminary Clearance Rate 55%
63% this time last year

Scheduled: 448
Reported: 262
Sold at Auction: 143
Sold Prior: 41
Withdrawn: 52
Passed In: 65
Private Treaty Sales: 1936
Median sale price (houses): $957,500
Median sale price (units): $666,500
Total value sold (million): $91

Brisbane

Preliminary Clearance Rate 13%
54% this time last year

Scheduled: 135
Reported: 75
Sold at Auction: 10
Sold Prior: 3
Withdrawn: 18
Passed In: 46
Private Treaty Sales: 822
Median sale price (houses): N/A
Median sale price (units): N/A
Total value sold (million): $9

Adelaide

Preliminary Clearance Rate 48%
37% this time last year

Scheduled: 102
Reported: 63
Sold at Auction: 30
Sold Prior: 8
Withdrawn: 9
Passed In: 20
Private Treaty Sales: 500
Median sale price (houses): $1,162,111
Median sale price (units): N/A
Total value sold (million): $26

Canberra

Preliminary Clearance Rate 58%
64% this time last year

Scheduled: 43
Reported: 36
Sold at Auction: 21
Sold Prior: 13
Withdrawn: 6
Passed In: 8
Private Treaty Sales: 264
Median sale price (houses): $980,000
Median sale price (units): N/A
Total value sold (million): $12

[Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor @LandCycle]

DAVID MURRIN SHARES HIS BIGGEST PREDICTIONS YET (& ANSWERS YOUR QS) – FULL LCI WEBINAR RECORDING REPLAY!

THIS WEEK'S LCI REPORT IS NOW READY TO VIEW!

David Murrin joined me this week for one of the most thought-provoking LCI LIVE sessions we've held to date! I’ve had heaps of positive feedback from those that attended – from beginning to end, it was a fascinating discussion.

We were able to answer all questions that were submitted, and also took questions live during the event. The recording additionally features a brief cameo appearance from Andrew Pancholi who joined the session from his home in London.

As always, David didn't hold back. He is one of the most intelligent men I've met.

One of the reasons I enjoy interviewing him is that it doesn't seem to matter what question you throw his way, he almost always has an informed, well-considered answer. Whether you agree with him or not, his ability to connect ideas and think several steps ahead is genuinely impressive.

During the discussion David argued that the world is already in the early stages of what he considers World War III – not a conventional conflict, but a long-duration struggle between major powers that he believes will peak around 2030.

He explained why this conflict is fundamentally inflationary, why bond yields could move far higher than most investors expect, and why he believes governments across the West have largely lost control of their debt dynamics.

We also explored China's growing military and shipbuilding capability, the implications for Australia and New Zealand, whether Taiwan remains the flashpoint everyone assumes it is, and why David believes the strategic landscape is becoming increasingly dangerous for anyone living in Australia and New Zealand.

Where can you hide?

That question is one that came up repeatedly. David’s answer – look in the mirror. And if you want to understand what he meant by that – you’ll have to tune into the recording!

For investors, David outlined where he would – and would not – place capital as we move toward the latter part of this decade.

He discussed commodities, energy, gold and silver, why he remains sceptical of many mainstream equity markets, and why he believes inflation has much further to run.

The conversation also ventured into some unexpected territory. David shared his thoughts on entropy and historical cycles, whether human civilisation is largely governed by repeating patterns, and even answered a question on the most contrarian investment thesis he can imagine – a response that surprised everyone in attendance “we are not alone.”

I’ll get David back to investigate that at a later date.

Whether you agree with David's conclusions or not, this was a fascinating discussion covering geopolitics, war cycles, inflation, commodities, investing and the future trajectory of the global economy.

The sides, recording, and transcript are available in the report.

https://t.co/5rtlDBksIR

[Catherine Cashmore @CC_CASHMORE]

Hey all - a fair few who follow me, follow Bryan Kavanagh @bryankav123 - he's asked me to inform that his X account was hacked on 24 May, so he cannot post anything. Working with X to get it back. @geophilos

[Catherine Cashmore @CC_CASHMORE]

Auction results - domain

National

Preliminary Clearance Rate
52%
64% this time last year
Scheduled: 2919
Reported: 1738
Sold at Auction: 905
Sold Prior: 437
Withdrawn: 440
Passed In: 380
Private Treaty Sales: 7135
Median sale price (houses): $1,260,000
Median sale price (units): $893,500
Total value sold (million): $769

Sydney

Preliminary Clearance Rate
51%
66% this time last year
Scheduled: 1272
Reported: 693
Sold at Auction: 350
Sold Prior: 229
Withdrawn: 249
Passed In: 85
Private Treaty Sales: 2050
Median sale price (houses): $1,910,000
Median sale price (units): $1,080,000
Total value sold (million): $327

Melbourne

Preliminary Clearance Rate
58%
67% this time last year
Scheduled: 1221
Reported: 812
Sold at Auction: 468
Sold Prior: 165
Withdrawn: 133
Passed In: 211
Private Treaty Sales: 2059
Median sale price (houses): $1,098,000
Median sale price (units): $732,500
Total value sold (million): $362

Brisbane

Preliminary Clearance Rate
23%
48% this time last year
Scheduled: 189
Reported: 106
Sold at Auction: 24
Sold Prior: 12
Withdrawn: 31
Passed In: 50
Private Treaty Sales: 1007
Median sale price (houses): $1,569,000
Median sale price (units): N/A
Total value sold (million): $31

Adelaide

Preliminary Clearance Rate
57%
36% this time last year
Scheduled: 152
Reported: 65
Sold at Auction: 37
Sold Prior: 15
Withdrawn: 9
Passed In: 17
Private Treaty Sales: 467
Median sale price (houses): $1,225,000
Median sale price (units): N/A
Total value sold (million): $33

Canberra

Preliminary Clearance Rate
42%
59% this time last year
Scheduled: 85
Reported: 62
Sold at Auction: 26
Sold Prior: 16
Withdrawn: 18
Passed In: 17
Private Treaty Sales: 331
Median sale price (houses): $1,070,000
Median sale price (units): N/A
Total value sold (million): $15

[Pete Wargent @PeteWargent]

Very few properties again selling this week

Stamp duty 📉

[Bryan Kavanagh @bryankav123]

@CC_CASHMORE @EagleOnEagleSt Yes, the anti-auction phase is certainly a thing in the cycle.

[Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor @LandCycle]

It was fantastic to see so many of you join me and Andrew Pancholi on Wednesday evening for another LCI LIVE Zoom event. Thanks so much to all that sent in questions and engaged with the session.

Andrew - is the creator of the Market Timing Report and a director for the Foundation for the Study of Cycles and he is one of the best forecasters I’ve come across.

I wanted him to join me to answer all your questions and go over the key dates and time windows for the end of the land cycle that may shape both economic and geopolitical events as we move toward, what I continue to believe, will be a very difficult period from late 2026 into 2027 - leading to a recession in 2028.

Andrew’s focus is on a wide range of cycles – not just the 18-year cycle – however, as I stress throughout this publication, the 18-year land cycle is not only a harmonic of many of the major long-wave cycles, but because of land’s unique position in the economy, it effectively acts like gravity to all economic cycles.

This is why Edward Dewey referred to the 18-year cycle in his landmark book Cycles: The Science of Prediction (1947) as "the most important economic cycle" we have.

Land is the foundation of the economy. Small businesses, banking, finance, construction, retail spending and credit creation are all effectively choreographed around the land market.

When transaction volumes are high, and speculation is running rife, these businesses thrive.

More people buying and selling property means more removals, more furniture sales, more whitegoods purchased, more renovations, more insurance policies written, more finance commissions, more advertising revenue for media companies, more legal and conveyancing work, more accommodation demand and construction activity...

However, toward the end of the cycle, as interest rates rise, credit tightens and transaction volumes begin falling. Even before prices collapse significantly, the slowdown in turnover alone starts pushing many small businesses into recession because the flow of economic activity tied to the land market begins drying up.

If you understand nothing else, you can still make exceptional long-term investment decisions simply by understanding the land cycle and its main driver - the thirst for economic rent.

It remains, that if the economic rent from land and natural resources isn’t collected and returned to the community on whose behalf that value was created, you will spend a lifetime paying taxes to fund the government, which spends most of its time protecting the rights of the largest monopolists who benefit from controlling large chucks of our land and natural resources.

The finance sector for example, that now effectively mortgages access to the earth itself, trading the debt on a multi trillion dollar derivatives market.

Big AI and technology companies which control of huge amounts of land, data centres, communications systems and enclosure of the electromagnetic sphere that everyone in a modern economy needs to function.

At the same time, mining and energy companies export the our coal and gas overseas while we pay rocketing costs to fuel our homes.

Regular readers of this publication will already have a broad understanding of this - and how the first and second halves of the land cycle differ and what that means for portfolio positioning - and real estate investing.

However, in the weeks ahead, I'll dedicate more time focusing on the first half of the next cycle and the opportunities that may emerge through the downturn. The idea being that readers can begin preparing now rather than reacting emotionally later.

For now however, below is a summary of some of the major themes Andrew covered during the session.
Andrew discussed several key dates. I have bolded these in the body of the report for those that do not want to listen to the entire recording.

Other points discussed include

- The key dates and timing windows Andrew is watching into 2026–2029
- Why years ending in 7 have historically been dangerous for markets
- Whether the ASX and Australian banks may have already topped
- The growing similarities between today’s AI boom and the dot-com bubble
- Gold, silver and whether precious metals could initially crash before surging higher
- Why bond yields are becoming a major problem for the global financial system
- The Strait of Hormuz, Middle East tensions and the risk of an oil shock
- War cycles, geopolitical escalation and China’s possible involvement ahead
-Why commodities can continue rising even while broader markets weaken
- The 100-year cycle, the 90-year cycle and whether the real danger period is 2028 rather than 2029

This is undoubtedly one of the most well attended live events that LCI has hosted. Click the link below to watch it now!

https://t.co/dSTaUJYeZJ

[Silvertrucker21 🔰 @silvertrucker21]

@LandCycle It was a great interview. I'll be sending you an email soon with a roadmap of the indicators I'm watching for the turn - may be helpful, may be useless, time will tell but you may at least find it interesting 😉

[Catherine Cashmore @CC_CASHMORE]

@EagleOnEagleSt Yeah - starting to get into an atmosphere where auctions are not the best method of sale. A lot of behind
doors negotiation going on.

[Catherine Cashmore @CC_CASHMORE]

Auction results.. (Domain)

National

Preliminary Clearance Rate
53%
65% this time last year
Scheduled: 2557
Reported: 1516
Sold at Auction: 802
Sold Prior: 397
Withdrawn: 357
Passed In: 342
Private Treaty Sales: 6678
Median sale price (houses): $1,212,000
Median sale price (units): $830,000
Total value sold (million): $588

Sydney

Preliminary Clearance Rate
53%
68% this time last year
Scheduled: 1038
Reported: 536
Sold at Auction: 285
Sold Prior: 199
Withdrawn: 179
Passed In: 66
Private Treaty Sales: 2017
Median sale price (houses): $1,825,000
Median sale price (units): $972,500
Total value sold (million): $250

Melbourne

Preliminary Clearance Rate
59%
68% this time last year
Scheduled: 1032
Reported: 687
Sold at Auction: 407
Sold Prior: 136
Withdrawn: 118
Passed In: 159
Private Treaty Sales: 1806
Median sale price (houses): $1,040,000
Median sale price (units): $690,500
Total value sold (million): $266

Brisbane

Preliminary Clearance Rate
19%
51% this time last year
Scheduled: 189
Reported: 120
Sold at Auction: 23
Sold Prior: 11
Withdrawn: 20
Passed In: 77
Private Treaty Sales: 956
Median sale price (houses): $1,432,500
Median sale price (units): N/A
Total value sold (million): $17

Adelaide

Preliminary Clearance Rate
58%
39% this time last year
Scheduled: 154
Reported: 71
Sold at Auction: 41
Sold Prior: 22
Withdrawn: 10
Passed In: 15
Private Treaty Sales: 461
Median sale price (houses): $920,000
Median sale price (units): N/A
Total value sold (million): $29

Canberra

Preliminary Clearance Rate
45%
64% this time last year
Scheduled: 144
Reported: 102
Sold at Auction: 46
Sold Prior: 29
Withdrawn: 30
Passed In: 25
Private Treaty Sales: 285
Median sale price (houses): $1,035,500
Median sale price (units): N/A
Total value sold (million): $24

[Bryan Kavanagh @bryankav123]

The 18.6-year Land Cycle, by Catherine Cashmore. https://t.co/BnEpMCp8aZ

[Cameron Murray @DrCameronMurray]

A good day to share my deep dive on the idea that we have a housing shortage, and why it never dies.

1920s? Housing shortage.
1970s? Housing shortage.

You name it. Housing shortage.

Read more here and subscribe for more deep dives
https://t.co/J1QRILOfj3

[Catherine Cashmore @CC_CASHMORE]

H/T @bryankav123 ""Like a flash, it came upon me that there was the reason for advancing poverty with advancing wealth."

[Catherine Cashmore @CC_CASHMORE]

So great seeing @leithvo on the Karl Stefanovic podcast. There's few economists that can really cut through the economic data in the way Leith does - take a listen.
https://t.co/gg4eURGKdz

[Catherine Cashmore @CC_CASHMORE]

@bryankav123 @JEChalmers @AngusTaylorMP This is a great breakdown BK

[Catherine Cashmore @CC_CASHMORE]

So great seeing @leithvo on the Karl Stefanovic podcast. There's few economists that can really cut through the economic data in the way Leith does - take a listen.
https://t.co/gg4eURGKdz

[Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor @LandCycle]

THE BUDGET TAX GRAB THAT COULD DEEPEN THE 2028 RECESSION...

I was not applauding the budget this week. Not necessarily because of the direction of the most controversial policies, more so because of the timing.

Australia’s economy remains heavily tied to rising land values.

If governments are going to wind back the tax incentives that have driven property speculation for decades as we approach a major cyclical downturn, there needs to be something big on the other side to stimulate the ‘real’ economy.

I’m talking about meaningful income tax reform - policies that genuinely lift productivity.

This budget offered nothing of the sort. It was a tax grab.

I’m going to focus specifically on the property market impact here – particularly the grandfathering of negative gearing and the changes to the capital gains tax discount.

Because recessions that emerge at the end the land cycle are often deeper and longer lasting than mid-cycle recessions.

The forthcoming recession will impact vast swathes of the economy that has choreographed itself around the finance, insurance and real estate sectors (the FIRE sectors).

Two points are therefore relevant:

1. The extent of the bust depends on the magnitude of the boom. Every boom is followed by a bust. The severity of the downturn depends on how much speculation in land prices there has been during the upswing. The more inflated the land price market, the harder the eventual correction.

2. Government policy shapes the crash - and reinflates the cycle. The extent of the damage during a downturn is often determined by government intervention - such as homebuyer grants, mortgage holidays, and stimulus payments. These can soften the blow and prevent widespread foreclosures.

Hence, implementing policies at this stage of the cycle that discourage investor activity in the property market (although not bad in themselves) will inevitably intensify the pain once the downturn takes hold.

In this week's Land Cycle Investor report you'll discover..

- Why the budget changes to negative gearing and CGT may intensify the downturn into 2028 - I strip away the market spin and show you how it will really impact the economy.
- Will rents rise?
- Will investors flee the market?
- Will the government backflip in 2027?
- What will be the real outcomes of this reform..both good, and bad? I drill into the detail with charts and data plus much more!
- PLUS The 45-year historical repeat that's taking us into a mega downturn

***EXCLUSIVE! - FRED HARRISON: THE END OF THE LAND CYCLE AND THE GREAT DESTRUCTION OF CIVILISATION***

It was a pleasure to sit down with Fred Harrison this week to discuss his latest book, Cheating: The Human Project and its Betrayal, which is out now.

Originally intended to be Fred's final publication, the project has since expanded into a two-part series, with the second instalment due for release next year.

Fred’s analysis in Cheating goes far beyond the usual discussion around greed, monopolies and rent-seeking.

Most economists talk about “economic rent” as simply money extracted through land, banking or monopoly power.

Fred takes it much further.

He argues the system is effectively feeding off human energy itself. People’s time, productivity, creativity and effort are constantly being drained into systems designed around extraction instead of genuine progress.

It’s not just an economic problem anymore. Rent seeking has become cultural and psychological. People work harder than ever, yet feel further behind.

He also gets into territory very few economists are even discussing properly yet – AI.

Fred sees artificial intelligence as either one of the greatest opportunities humanity has ever had, or one of the biggest threats, depending on who controls the benefits from it.

If the gains from AI are captured by the same systems already monopolising land, housing, finance and resources, the divide between those who own and those who work will become extreme.

Fred’s warning, however, goes even further than economics.

He believes the downturn approaching into 2028 could become the point where four major crises collide at once – a debt and financial crisis, escalating geopolitical conflict and war, the disruption from artificial intelligence and technological displacement, and the growing environmental and resource crisis tied to climate and energy systems.

Separately, each one would be difficult enough to manage. Together, Fred argues they will overwhelm political and economic systems already weakened by decades of speculation, inequality and short-term thinking.

That’s why he says this cycle may be different from all the others before it. A genuine threat to the stability of civilisation as we currently know it.

Honestly, there’s nobody else quite like Fred Harrison when it comes to getting to the absolute core of it all.
Plenty of analysts can tell you prices are too high or a recession is coming.

Fred pulls apart the machinery underneath the entire system – land, speculation, debt, power, monopoly and the way societies organise themselves around them.

He gets right into the nitty gritty of what actually drives civilisation forward – and what ultimately pulls it apart.

https://t.co/Wb0duTlsSu

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

This budget takes the idea of inter-generational fairness and blows it to pieces...

Young people slugged a minimum 30% tax on capital gains, even low income earners, while pensioners are entirely immune.

That is the complete opposite.

[Louis Christopher @LouiChristopher]

Ross Greenwood is on fire tonight. @Ross_Greenwood
"Since negative gearing will still apply on shares, let's set up an ETF full of houses and allow investors to gear up against that!"

Yes, legally, that could be done.