@melodykoh AI is an elegant tool that increases accessibility to data. imo the ceiling moves because the substrate changed, not because models got smart. People still chasing prompt engineering are arguing about the wrong layer.
Brex’s $5.15B exit tells you exactly who gets paid in venture and who doesn’t.
The math reveals a clean split by vintage:
YC’s original $120K check turned into roughly $100M. 800x return. 110% IRR across 9 years. Their follow-on through YC Continuity adds another $500M on ~$40M invested. One company. Two checks. $600M.
Series A investors from 2017 made 80x at 64% IRR. Series B in early 2018 made 12x at 39% IRR. These are the returns that make venture pencil as an asset class.
Series C in late 2018 made 2.75x at 15% IRR. Still solid but you’re now in PE territory for a startup’s risk profile.
Then the 2020-2021 cohort. Series C+ investors got 1.3x at 4% IRR. Series D investors from Tiger and Greenoaks got their money back with 0% IRR. In a world where most late-stage 2021 vintage investments are underwater, breakeven is actually a win.
The employee story mirrors the same curve. Founders walked with ~$1B. Anyone who joined 2018 or earlier made 3-100x depending on timing. 2021-2022 joiners got underwater equity, though most who stayed probably received refresh grants.
Entry timing dominates everything. Same company. Same outcome. Wildly different returns based on when you wrote the check or signed the offer letter.
Yeah man we’re actually not private equity, we’re just a group of operators and investors with some committed capital behind us, buying durable businesses with defensible market positions with no defined hold period. Kind of a Buy then Build strategy