$SPY
2022 March 16th (1st rate hike of cycle) vs Sep 16 2026
As you can see my forecast on the right I was looking for a sell off into FOMC/ end of week then a rally into EOM. I will be open to this fractal playing out in which they front run it going into the FOMC.
If we gap up tomorrow and it sustains and closes near the high of day my bias will change to the rally being front run.
Qwen3.8-Max-0902 just took #1 on Code Arena WebDev
It’s passing names like Claude Opus 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol in web dev, SWE tasks, and visual reasoning.
The gap is officially closing, 🔥
🇨🇳 #China to Ramp Up Fiscal Stimulus in 2H to Secure Growth: Report - Shanghai Securities News
➡ China’s fiscal stimulus is set to ramp up in 2H — with ample headroom for further policy support — as Beijing moves to expedite fiscal spending and revive domestic demand, the Shanghai Securities News reported, citing industry experts.
➡ The Ministry of Finance recently pledged to speed up budget execution and tighten supervision of lagging regions
➡ Unissued or unallocated quotas for 2H comprise three main buckets — special local government bonds, new policy financial tools and consumer trade-in funds — said Zhang Yi, chief economist at Financial Street Securities.
➡ The combined remaining policy capacity of the three measures amounts to roughly 2.96 trillion yuan on paper, representing the most readily deployable pool of existing policy resources to support investment and consumption in 2H.
➡ Effective Aug. 1, the ministry expanded loan interest subsidies and raised borrowing limits to stimulate private investment and household spending.
➡ Officials are drafting additional fiscal-financial synergy measures for launch in 2H; Zhang said that may extend subsidized loans to service consumption and rent, introduce risk-sharing mechanisms to unfreeze bank lending and better align special bonds with policy finance.
➡ The report says the ministry will maintain a tight grip on local government debt risks, cracking down on hidden debt creation or fake debt resolution.
*Link (Chinese): https://t.co/4a2PaiXfs1