Using @WorldBank Official exchange rate (LCU per US$, period average) data for Uganda from 1960 to 2022, my model forecasts Uganda’s exchange rate to continue increasing with absolute casts for 2024 at 3871 with upper and lower bounds upto 4293.758 and 3449.686 with a 95% Confidence Internal.
Note: the forecast also predicts Exchange rate to continue to increase in the period of 2025, 2026 and 2027 with absolute forecasts at 3960.354, 4048.746 & 4137.068 respectively with upper and lower bounds reaching 4951.991 & 3322.145 respectively by 2027.
The Central Bank, @BOU_Official has raised the CBR up from 9.5% to 10% this month and hopes this will increase the returns, create demand and consequently appreciate the shilling.
Model Accuracy using MAPE = 11.42%