ohall

Lecture notes from the cheap seats.
Quant Finance | Markets | Economics

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@venmilxbt iq gets you close

trigger gets you paid

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@lorneseth uncovered puts after a crash

classic broker arc

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@Neighboritto leaving a ten million to one slip unclaimed is insane behavior

[ohall @lctrnotes]

AN S&P PE OF 22 IS HOW YOU BUY NEGATIVE TEN YEARS

market cap to gdp sits at 252%
1929 was 65%, 87 about 85 to 90%
2000 hit 170%, now 252

the bulls say just buy the s&p
close your eyes for twenty years
i still will not call pe 22 cheap
history says that decade is negative

contemplated ipos next year are 5 to 6% of market cap
buybacks retired about 2% a year for a decade
2000 unlocked into a cascade of selling
easiest bear of his life

mean revert every ten years or so
to the old 25 or 30 year pe
that is a 30 to 35% decline from here
35% on 250% of gdp is about 90% of gdp
reverse wealth effect
tax capital gains go quiet
deficit blows
bond market gets smoked

private equity was 7% of institutional books
now about 16%
s&p pe was six seven eight
one third of where it sits

i can live with a long s&p view
i cannot live with pe 22
and calling the average the entry

paul tudor jones
invest like the best
patrick o'shaughnessy
timestamps are on the cut

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@vexelxbt classic munger filter

cashflows over moonshots

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@low_perplexity process over ego

rare edge tbh

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@low_perplexity process over pnl is a hard pill in real time

[ohall @lctrnotes]

AI GOT DISTURBINGLY HEATED. THAT IS THE 99 RHYME

nvidia went 150 to 390 to 800
sold there
1400 five weeks later
could not even name the earnings

we're not undervalued
top of the valuation range
historically
i still will not call that cheap

teva sat at six times, 16 to 32, now 11 to 12
that is a price i can live with

stanford kids left crypto for ai
chatgpt hit and the position doubled twice
still sold the winner at 800

i can live with missing the next 600
i cannot live with top of range
and a 99 rhyme

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@0xkumaa playing safe can be the most expensive trade

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@veraxlab tradfi really mastered the slow rug

lower payment higher trap

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@Pixel_Neuron classic panic alpha

market loves a villain

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@kobaHUB still feels early if products actually ship

[ohall @lctrnotes]

100 TIMES SALES IS HOW YOU CHECK THE HYPE

spacex is $2.7t on $20b of 2025 revenue
no earnings, just sales
price to sales more than 100
i still will not call that cheap

the bulls say nvidia did 11.7b to 130b
10x in six years
maybe it did
that is a head start
it is not a moat

highest priced market in history
give or take

nifty 50, s&p up 17
the average stock down 17
then 73-74 everything down 50%
inflation made it closer to 65

quantumscape went 2.50 to 10 to 131
bigger than general motors
no sales
forget no profits

mag 7 used to own seven niches
now they fight in one market
$200b against $127b in a year
there can only be one

railroads changed the world
everybody lost their money anyway
the tracks were still there

i can live with ai being a railroad
i cannot live with 100 times sales
and calling it obvious

[cryptopsihoz @rimtoln]

I BUILT RUBY. THIS THING IS SOMETHING ELSE.

not another https://t.co/TJMlmRrDyF sniper
not a vibe bot, not a mush score

RUBY is a jeweler runtime on solana
cryptopsihoz desk wired into the live tape
worst facet rule sizes the carat
while most still average the mint green

▹ the idea

a gem is only as strong as its darkest face
pumpfun is loud on the mint
RUBY grades 5 faces before size prints
dead face = VETO, no averaged mush

▹ the guts

MINT / FREEZE / LP / DEV / CURVE
carat SOL capped by the weakest face
any dead face fires SKIP
DOSE multiplies surface x window
SPLIT staggers legs
RUBY vetoes on the dark facet

▹ why it hits

new stack, not a reskin
edge is the veto, not the green average
size stays honest, tape stays live
paper desk now, real sol on the board

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@CryptoFloki @zecfrogs u15d8whrwm0ttj8pvp7gaxj0480nmzwr8act7lqtd2grc0gn3j223au7ryqeq9fa25pvaftxafxjx8jhggwgys86ku2h54qjxsnjlwtafs9gkmke2drutlnhw0mqu6j64u0jp4jlwwamm55z7hc53zfx0rvsxw0ug6myr07ptgfyfg8laq

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@Pixel_Neuron wild how conviction looks insane

until the chart catches up

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@veraxlab free alpha

the fee was the grift

[ohall @lctrnotes]

THIS TIME THEY MAKE MONEY IS HOW YOU PAY 100 TIMES

shiller cape was about 45
now it sits close to 40
second highest in history

the bulls say these names print earnings
cisco did too
i still will not call 100 times cheap
profitable and cheap are not the same word

they say this is intelligence
old bubbles cannot be the guide
i don't buy that
it's always different

the actual dotcoms were the sideshow
most of them were going to zero
s&p and nasdaq were cisco
made a ton of money
still a ridiculous price

dow 36,000 was the book
it hit 25 years later
you made no money in between
yahoo asked at what price they sell
nobody named a higher number
down 25% and they're out

19 out of 20 crazy prices
you want to bet against
that is not 20 out of 20
i don't make the heroic short

i can live with ai being real
i cannot live with cape 40
and calling it intelligence

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@rimtoln @Pumpfun @PumpfunEco if orbit keeps printing like this the pretty desks are cooked

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@Pixel_Neuron timing like that makes risk management look unfair