There's bad quarters and then there’s Arq $ARQ, dropping 40% on poor results a month ago.
But while indeed pretty poor, the reaction seems excessive.
There are quite some moving parts in the business, and a few are doing well.
The company is growing and increasing operating earnings.
~10x ev/ebitda on FY26e for what could be >50% ebitda growth p.a. over the medium-term (post 2026).
Will need more cash to fund growth though.
Fwiw, insiders bought the dip.
@rwloomisGenX@lasse108 My take: this looks like a first-time scale-up hiccup rather than a fatal flaw. They weren’t experienced GAC operators, so the learning curve showed up early. Upside is the issue is now identified and understood, which actually takes risk off the table if they execute the fixes.
@rwloomisGenX@lasse108 Fair concern. Mgmt explained the delay came from design assumptions not fully accounting for the high moisture and variability of their ARC feedstock. They’ve already produced on-spec GAC, made initial sales, and are adjusting processes (including lower-moisture blends).
EXCLUSIVE: We went to Jumia's Lagos warehouse during Black Friday to see the "failed Amazon of Africa" mounting an unlikely comeback.
$JMIA burned >$1B and crashed >95%. Temu and Shein blitzed its home turf.
But now the data shows: Jumia is winning.
Here's how:
If they execute even close to plan, that’s where the 5x potential is. It's a potential deep value gem in a sea of overvaluation. Do your own due diligence. Not financial advice. 🧵(12/12)