Something is brewing in bonds.
CTAs are heavily short. Treasury yields are reversing. MOVE just broke below 100.
The next big squeeze could be in Treasuries.
https://t.co/CLUHSurLdI
Gold is coiling and getting ready for a big move 🚨 🚨 Bollinger Bands are now the tightest since August 2025, right before Gold soared 60% over the next 5 months 🚀 🥳
Huge reversal in rate hike odds today: following John Williams' dovish comments that there is no "urgency" to act, odds of a rate hike tumbled from 68% to 44%, with no hike nearly doubling to 56%.
It appears UBS will be correct that there will be no rate hike before midterms
Silver is setting up for a strong move higher.
The volume profile and anchored VWAP drawn from the January peak on SLV are both pointing to the same conclusion: SLV should be testing 70 soon, which implies silver moving toward the 75–80 dollar zone very soon.
The structure is clear.
The anchored VWAP from the January peak is now around 71. That means shorts as a system are profitable below that level, and 71 is their breakeven zone. Once short-term reverses (which happened), price tends to get pulled back toward that level.
The volume profile from the same January peak also shows the POC around 70. That is the heaviest area of positioning, and when momentum shifts, algos love to chase those levels. They often act like magnets.
So both the anchored VWAP at 71 and the POC at 70, both measured from the January peak, are telling you the same thing: SLV is likely to be pulled higher toward that zone.
The gold/silver ratio is also pointing lower, which further supports more silver outperformance ahead.
Message is simple: the January peak structure is now acting like a roadmap, and it points higher.
Dot plots sees major lift for 2026:
12 see one more hike this year
4 see two more hikes
2 see no hikes
2027 is messier:
1 sees 4 cuts
3 see 2 cuts
6 see no cuts or hikes
8 see 1 hike
This is how an Oil shock starts accelerating the exit of carry capital from India.
Look at the sequence already developing:
Long bonds selling off.
Equities selling off.
Rupee depreciating.
The short end is still relatively calm.
But if 2Y yields also start surging, while the rupee, equities and long bonds continue weakening together, that is when this begins to look like a full capital-exodus event.
India has also taken a risky path by increasingly replacing foreign capital with foreign-currency liabilities. That works while the carry regime is stable. It becomes much more dangerous when Oil explodes and external funding conditions tighten.
As I mentioned earlier:
If there is no relief in Oil, India is going to feel a lot of heat.
As individuals, we cannot control Oil, capital flows, the currency or central-bank policy.
What we can control is our own exposure.
Hedge yourself from the system before the system forces everyone to hedge at the same time.
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