Lena Devlen

“The unforeseen does not exist,” quietly replied Phileas Fogg. 🇨🇦🇹🇷🇰🇬

[Laura Hazard Owen @laurahazardowen]

anyway, here's the story on @niemanlab: https://t.co/4cTkAIKGQX

[Good Judgment Inc @superforecaster]

Our May 12-13 Superforecasting workshop covers probabilistic reasoning, calibration, cognitive biases, and structured forecasting, the same techniques that beat intelligence analysts by 30%.
As recently featured in the NYT and Washington Post.
Register: https://t.co/7qg3bhWoBO

[Good Judgment Inc @superforecaster]

How do prediction markets, experts, and Superforecaster teams approach the same problems? Our CEO Dr. Warren Hatch talked with @washingtonpost about what sets each apart and where the real edge comes from.
https://t.co/TrAqQ8DyyA

[Good Judgment Inc @superforecaster]

Millions of dollars trading on a Polymarket contract where “severely restricts” wasn’t defined until six weeks after launch. “Making up standards as you go does a disservice to market participants.” See Ryan Adler’s “Let Me Get This Strait” 👇

[Good Judgment Inc @superforecaster]

Polymarket bundled two tariff questions into one. The Supreme Court happened to treat them the same way, but it easily could have split the baby, as courts often do. Good question design matters, writes Ryan Adler, Superforecaster and Good Judgment Question Team Lead. Link👇

[Good Judgment Inc @superforecaster]

FRI’s latest survey found Superforecasters “bullish” on an AI forecasting benchmark. What the blog post didn’t mention: they also said hitting that mark wouldn’t mean much. “Skill lies in knowing when AI number crunching will be enough. Judgment, in knowing when it won’t.” 1/2

[Good Judgment Inc @superforecaster]

Meet a Superforecaster: AI risk management expert Malcolm Murray explains why AI experts often overestimate specific risks and adoption timelines, how he uses Superforecasting best practices to assess biological and cyber risk, why resilience is the path forward, and more. 1/2

[Good Judgment Inc @superforecaster]

Good Judgment is featured in today’s @nytimes on the future of forecasting. Our CEO Dr. Warren Hatch @wfrhatch discusses how Superforecasters have an edge when the data is sparse and the environment is in flux.
https://t.co/dOsKAtD6th

[Good Judgment Open @GJ_Open]

Three lessons from the top student forecasters of 2025:
1. Base rates first.
All three winners emphasized anchoring to historical data or statistical baselines before adding on their own judgment to the mix. The crowd is a useful signal, but only after you’ve done your own work.

[Good Judgment Inc @superforecaster]

“Forget the old advice to think twice. Superforecasters often think thrice—and sometimes they are just warming up to do a deeper-dive analysis.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting. https://t.co/7qg3bhWoBO

[Good Judgment Inc @superforecaster]

1/ Three students. Four months of forecasting. We talked to the winners of the 2025 University Forecasting Challenge (@GJ_Open) about their strategies, struggles, and what this process has taught them. A thread, and a link to the full interview:

[Good Judgment Inc @superforecaster]

Have AI + prediction markets made human forecasters obsolete? Our 2025 data: Superforecasters beat the markets for the 3rd year running. Best LLMs still lagged top humans by 40%. What’s the Supers’ edge? Our 2025 in review: https://t.co/wz6OFekaBd

[Good Judgment Inc @superforecaster]

Measurable outcomes: over 3 months and 178 questions, grads improved 29% on average and were 33% more accurate than an untrained cohort. Online Superforecasting workshop: 10 & 11 Mar 2026, 12:00-2:30 pm EDT. https://t.co/JBvmwv6eF9 #Superforecasting

[Lena Devlen @LenaDevlen]

Google's "AI Overview" continues to be wildly off the mark. Same query, posted back to back. Both answers wrong. One identifies JRR Tolkien correctly, but not the work.

[Good Judgment Inc @superforecaster]

Superforecasting Workshop feedback:
- “excellent and incredibly practical … Highly recommend it.” (Jeff Trueman)
- “great insight … better than traditional structured analytic techniques taught to students of intelligence.” (participant)
Details: https://t.co/7qg3bhWWrm

[Good Judgment Inc @superforecaster]

Writing forecasting questions is harder than it looks. A Polymarket question on Venezuela turned on a single verb: “invade.” Our breakdown of what went wrong with the framing: https://t.co/wXAu7ZPG7m

[Lena Devlen @LenaDevlen]

No NYE fireworks for us, only heartbreak and near-silence. We loved Tara for so many things: her grace; her intelligence, wit, generosity; her conversation on topics from literature to politics to roasting bone marrow; our BBQ & movie nights. This will take a long time to process

[Yaroslav 🇺🇦 🇨🇦 @YaroslavB]

It is with tremendous sadness that our family learned today that my beloved wife, Tara Baran, has passed away.

We thank Ottawa Police, OPP Kemptville and OPP Parry Sound for all of their efforts.

Please pray for her, for our children, and for all those living with mental health struggles. My thanks to the many who have reached out. We ask for privacy as we mourn as a family. 🙏☦️

[Good Judgment Inc @superforecaster]

New on our blog: Superforecaster Ryan Adler shares a childhood memory to discuss what bottom-feeders can teach us about consuming social media. https://t.co/a9Q4yao1On

[Good Judgment Inc @superforecaster]

“Short, sharp, and surprisingly practical.”
Jeff Trueman of Eisengard AI just finished our Superforecasting Fundamentals online course on forecasting under uncertainty.
Get 20% off with code gj20w25 through 31 December 2025: https://t.co/WAdZTPDK7r

[Good Judgment Inc @superforecaster]

Save the date: Good Judgment CEO Dr. Warren Hatch delivers a keynote on Flashpoints and Risks in 2026 at the @UNOCHA Global Humanitarian Policy Forum. Streaming live 11 Dec, 10 AM ET on UN OCHA LinkedIn (https://t.co/AKFpqufHdY). https://t.co/0OJCDJueu8