I predicted the top, now its time to predict the bottom.
Based on diminishing returns/retracements & fractal analysis, I believe this time we wont bottom where most expect.
I expect $BTC to bottom in August. You heard it here first.
Something interesting is happening with $BTC...
Most of us are familiar with Bitcoin’s clinical market cycles. Historically, bear markets last about 365 days, and by that metric we’re roughly 1/3 in.
What’s different this time is speed. Price is dropping faster than usual, 1.25x. Since BTC topped in October, earlier than past cycles, it’s reasonable to expect the bottom to arrive earlier too.
My base case: we bottom in August, not Q4. That’s why I’m planning to accumulate between June, August.
Part of this is intuition, but the structure supports it.
Cycles appear to be shortening. As institutional demand grows, it will increasingly absorb miner and OG selling pressure. When that balance shifts, BTC may start behaving less like a boom-bust asset and more like a traditional risk asset, closer to the S&P 500’s cycle profile.
Based on drawdown math, we’re likely 22–30% from the bottom. Historically, smart money builds spot positions in the -40% to -60% range. I don’t expect a -70% drawdown this cycle.
I think we’re 20% away from the bear market low, with the bottom forming in Q3.
Using the 365-day model, there are 200 days left to a formal bottom. That gives us two paths:
• slow sideways chop with a gradual bleed, or
• a faster dump that ends the bear cycle early
I am betting that we bottom sooner. So I am buying at
69K.
65K.
60K.
55K.
50K.
45K.
Don't cry because its over, smile because it happened.
Note: In regards to massive swing longs, you will know when I am long.
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---
When & Where
🔹Start Time: 27 March 2024, 12:00 EST / 16:00 UK / 00:00 HKT (+1 Day)
🔹End Time: 28 March 2024, 11:59 EST / 15:59 UK / 23:59 HKT
🔹Duration: 24 Hours
🔹Result: 2 April 2024
🔹Where: https://t.co/kI4bId3r6q (exact link to be released)
---
Price
🔹Price Per Ticket: 0.05 - 0.1 ETH
🔹The exact ETH required will be announced before Public Sale starts
---
Eligibility
🔹All users of WELL3 who had quested (interacted with contract) on https://t.co/kI4bId3r6q before the snapshot was taken
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How
1⃣Connect your wallet, system will verify the eligibility of each user
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---
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---
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---
More info will be released close to public sale and in our discord
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Users, developers, and validators can engage with the testnet through Galxe's Quest platform. The Galxe Quest platform will feature activities involving the core chain, its enshrined applications, and projects building in the ecosystem.
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