🦁

I extract the value from our simulation

[🦁 @Lepharedusud]

@HerrAlanturing @inverserebirth @RedactedSatoshi What do you mean by that ? 🙏🏻

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

Not everyone will make it this cycle.

You need to shift your mindset and detach from the crowd.

Coinbase app ranking will not tell you when the top is in.

Start thinking differently.

“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.”

In other words, when we set one specific goal, people will tend to optimize for that objective regardless of the consequences. This leads to ignoring other equally important factors of a situation.

Furthermore, let me tell you that most of the top signals mentioned on CT won't work this time.

What was an obvious top signal in 2017 wasn't in 2021, and the same goes for 2024-25.

We’re moving towards the right curve of the adoption rate, and now all retail knows about crypto - some heard about it in 2017, and then almost everyone heard about it in 2021.

Don't mix the signs of adoption with top signals. Don’t let the PTSD ruin your fun.

Another point to address is the shift of influence - BlackRock & Co. controls Bitcoin now.

They are the major ETF providers and own shares of each other. So, they control the sentiment around BTC now.

And they also own all the media platforms. They can literally shape the narrative as they want.

Let me re-phrase it like this:

If most of this run-up is driven by institutional bids, why would retail indicators be relevant?

The indicator for this cycle will come from the people who haven’t been onboarded yet.

Yes, It can be retail who still haven't touched crypto - "late majority" and "laggards" - but you gotta think on a bigger scale.

Sovereign Wealth Funds

Think of those countries with a sovereign wealth fund starting to diversify in $BTC. Some already invest in stocks, so it might be possible to see this scenario.

• Saudi Arabia - $400 billion
• Abu Dhabi - $800 billion
• China - $1 trillion
• Norway - $1 trillion
• Australia - $150 billion
• Qatar - $300 billion
• Singapore - $500 billion

Corporate Treasuries

We have already seen this in 2021 with Tesla purchasing $BTC and, more recently, with Reddit disclosing some of its crypto holdings.

The trend is just starting. Once you see daily headlines of companies diversifying their assets into
,it might be rational to start derisking.

Stock Market IPOs

Coinbase IPO in 2021 was the first major crypto company to be listed in the stock market. We might see this time tens of crypto companies doing their IPOs, and at some point, one listing will mark the top.

Over-Leveraging

Big hedge funds, companies, and maybe even small countries over-leveraging in the final stages of the bull run and getting rekt could be another scenario we might see this cycle.

Rehypothecation Crisis

The next Luna-type of collapse might come from the restaking sector and kickstart the bear market. It seems like everyone is overlooking the huge consequences of a depeg or slashing event in this sector.

Gold Reserves

The ultimate ultra top signal could be governments diversifying a small % of their gold reserves into Bitcoin - the "digital gold".

Some additional minor signals

Low-Income Countries Workers Shortage

Another big signal is when low-income countries will have a shortage of workers because these are making $300 to $600 a month mapping the roads with hivemapper or other DePIN projects and earning a higher salary than what they'd normally get.

Happened at a small scale last cycle with Axie and StepN. Will happen at a larger scale this cycle.

Las Vegas Sphere

Time Square was full of shit memecoins in 2021. The Las Vegas Sphere with crypto ads running on it for weeks straight will be the version of this cycle.

Funding Rounds

A pretty secure signal again will be checking the volumes of VC investments. Funding rounds skyrocketing and, maybe overpassing tradFi ones might be the indicator again to start exiting.

“The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios... The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.

- George Soros.

[Arkham @arkham]

GCR is one of the most famous traders in crypto.

Named after his alias “Gigantic-Cassocked-Rebirth” on the fallen exchange FTX, @GiganticRebirth became well-known on Crypto Twitter for his elite performance and sophisticated insights.

GCR predicted the rise of memecoins like Shiba Inu, the emergence of NFTs as a new market vertical, the collapse of LUNA, and key aspects of the 2022 bear market.

But what’s the full story behind his persona?

https://t.co/YH2JJrvz1v

[Alan Turing @HerrAlanturing]

Preety accurate future predictions in there !

[Joseph Ayoub @Crypto_Joe10]

Market thoughts.. I’ve been quiet on this side since building @rug_ai

This is now my third cycle. Each cycle that follows is a mutation of the previous.

In each cycle, it’s important to understand who you are.

A) Do you need to make it with not much capital

B) Can you be comfortable making it with a 5x?

If you answered B, don’t read the rest of this. Buy ETH, stake and relax. But I suspect the vast majority of you here are A.

In which case I have some advice for you. Timing is of crucial importance. If you’re not a step ahead you’re a step behind.

There are two main ways you’re going to make life-changing money. Leverage trading, or buying Low Market cap coins. The reality is, most people in category A aren’t good enough traders to leverage trade, but you probably are good enough to find something early. This is doable with enough research.

Much like previous cycles the dumbest things you think won’t go up, end up going up the most. This means meme coins, Bonk being a great example.

To make it you need to be:

A) 3 steps ahead
B) Have conviction
C) Understand human sentiment

This applies to both Leverage trading, but also buying low caps.

A) To be three steps ahead you need to predict narratives unfolding before they do. Obvious narratives yet to fully unfold: AI, MOVE L1s, Meme season (Dog, Cat or Pepe, I also heard it’s year of the dragon in 2024).

B) To have conviction you need to be sure of 1) The narrative unfolding 2) The coins you’ve picked. To pick the right coin is like betting on a horse. It’s important to understand why the average person will buy it after you. Often it’s because it has a funny name, or represents a part of micro-culture people care about or find funny. The more stupid you think it is, the more likely it is to do well (probably). @cobie once said something smart - ‘When the average person sees this coin, do you think they will a) ignore it b) buy it’

C) And finally understanding human sentiment. These coins will have wild swings, and these narratives will unfold in the midst of Bitcoin pull-backs. The bull market is a wildly emotional time, and it’s easy to get caught up and lost in both the FOMO and the FUD. Being able to zoom out to understand how humans behave and drive markets, and are irrationally fearfully and exuberantly greedy all within a very short period is crucial. Crypto is like a microcosm of aggressive market cycles occurring on a tiny scale over and over again in the context of a huge market cycle.

It’s important to understand where we are in the cycle, when to allocate aggressively, and most importantly when to walk away.

Ideally you walk away at when your trade has reached its logical end-point. But more realistically and importantly, if you’ve made life changing money, it’s important you sell, leave a small pot to continue working but cash out. Don’t drink your own cool-aid.

As for where we are now. I think we’re at the precipice of what is going to be an aggressive and fast paced bull market. But there’s a period between the etf being approved and that occurring, much similar to the Gold period which took 10 months after ETF approval for new highs. However, we are extremely close.

When I can I’ll try and provide market commentary and advice. I’ve really been focused on @rug_ai because I believe @jake_xbt and I have solved one of the biggest problems in this industry. We’re working hard to completely change how people view this space, so it’s no longer seen as the wild Wild West, but the transformative place we all want it to be. And that comes with solving Token Safety, and Smart Contract Safety.

Thanks for all the support always.

Joe

[K A L E O @CryptoKaleo]

YOU ARE ABOUT TO ENTER THE MOST ABUNDANT, PROSPEROUS, OPPORTUNITY FILLED PHASE OF YOUR LIFE.

BULLIEVE IN THE GOLDEN BULL RUN.

[gib @gibthefrog]

to 0

or gibhalla

[FTPager.sol @FTPager]

Why $GIB could shoot to $10m+ Market Cap [MC] in one big green candle-🐸🚀

👉 Consistent relatively high volume to MC ratio shows interest & accumulation

👉 Consistent presence on the trending pages of @dexscreener, @mobyagent, & @JupiterExchange driven by consistently high trading volume

👉 Crypto-native animations & storyboards every crypto-degen can relate with drives engagement on X, Instagram, & TikTok

👉 ATH magnet-🧲 $16.7m MC

👉 Dumped -97% from ATH while the community just kept vibing & the team just kept building

👉 A lot of $GIB is now in diamond hands who recognize its true potential for $GIB-illions

👉 Comparative to PONKE [$65.9m MC] & FWOG [$44m MC] which both have similar early price patterns

👉 Dedicated crypto-native team working hard behind the scenes

👉 Fast growing community with 4.9k followers on X & 1.2k-strong X-community in just 27 days

👉 It's BONK season & @bonkfun ecosystem tokens are re-pricing higher across the board!

$GIB has been consistently setting higher-lows since it bottomed-out 11 days ago & holder numbers keep going UP. This kind of accumulation usually precedes an explosive rally IMO-🧐

$GIB to $GIB-illions 🐸🚀

[Jahrmahr @jahrmahr]

instagram, tiktok and x.3 big social media accounts our founders are regularly posting.I have never seen a more active team.@cozypront @IcedKnife are actively posting. one day we will light a green candle and we will not see a red candle for a long time.hold the trenches $Gib

[🦁 @Lepharedusud]

@SorosBruv @OJGorilla Dude juste talking for nothing like he did mooooonths ago

[Fomocap @fomocapdao]

so it begins, if true

[ₕₐₘₚₜₒₙ @hamptonism]

George Soros Theory of Reflexivity challenges the idea that markets are always rational.

He argues that investors' perceptions can influence the fundamentals they're supposed to reflect, creating feedback loops that drive bubbles, booms, and crashes…

[Progress Until Next Halving @btc_halving]

▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░ 29.1%

1034 days and 148939 blocks left

$104781 per #bitcoin

[MiningVisuals @MiningVisuals]

Silver Market 2025: Supply & Demand

Read the full article to learn more: https://t.co/jfKiN6TOVJ

[Markchain @Markchain_io]

Who's joining? DM'us 🇲🇨

[NotFinancialAdvice.Crypto @NFAdotcrypto]

Just had a crazy thought... 🎩

FUD didn't stop any of us who are still here from holding, right?... So maybe it wasn't designed to keep US out.

It takes very specific traits to withstand the kind of onslaught we went through (lawsuits, fake news, propagandists) and maybe it was a test…

Like maybe the powers-that-be created a sort of psychological gauntlet to make sure the right type of people would end up with these assets of the future so that they'd be the ones in a position to do good with their wealth…

Like in the movie Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. Willy Wonka was looking for someone worthy of inheriting his life’s work and so put them through many tests, which only Charlie passed…

Maybe we are Charlie.

[TradeStream @tradestream_xyz]

most traders:

- react to candles

- chase levels

- confuse motion with information

Auction Market Theory begins with a simple question:

"What is the market trying to do?"

let the arc begin:

[🦁 @Lepharedusud]

@jahrmahr @gibthefrog Hey J,
How are you?
Fan of your content
I'd like to get in touch with you if possible.
I'm ready to take on the counterparty to learn a little more about your method.
Nothing ventured, nothing gained 🙏🏻
A beautiful day to you

[Deribit Insights @DeribitInsights]

1) APAC Whales used a quiet weekend period to partially liquidate JW down to 107.5k in the last 12hrs.

An immediate bounce to 110k was supported by continued bullish option flows ahead of the BTC conference this week.
May110-115k Calls, July120k+ Call spread buys, Jun Put sales.

[CryptoBoss @CryptoBoss1984]

Recently, I got to know better a project which started the RWA trend in crypto. I'm talking about @PropyInc - a company founded in 2017 with a profitable business in the USA. 🇺🇸

I spoke with the team and was surprised about how much they have advanced in tokenizing real estate. 🏠 No other company stands even close. Here are some key points I emphasized for myself:

🟢 PROPY already tokenized $10B+ worth of property.
🟢 Automates title, escrow, and closing via smart contracts.
🟢 Works with crypto or fiat, 24/7.
🟢 Backed by Tim Draper, the OG of crypto VC.
🟢 Powered by $PRO token, listed on @coinbase.

As you may see, PROPY solves real world problems, making homeownership more accessible. It's not based on hype and promises, but already generates revenue.
I will expand the topic soon and tell you more about PROPY ecosystem, and mainly about $PRO token. 🪙

Stay tuned, it's going to be a legendary thread! 🔥
🌐 https://t.co/Kpo35oNzZO