Leslie Picker

CNBC Senior Banking & Finance Correspondent

[Leslie Picker @LesliePicker]

@IvanTheK @EdLudlow Thank you! Means a lot :)

[Wilfred Frost @WilfredFrost]

@CNBC just totally rocks on a day like today (and everyday obvi). I’m glued. @SpaceX

[Leslie Picker @LesliePicker]

🙏🙏

[Dan Primack @danprimack]

A sincere thank you to SpaceX and its bankers for pricing early and not making us reporters keep hitting "refresh" until 7pm.

[Leslie Picker @LesliePicker]

If retail is 30% of a $75 billion IPO, $100 billion worth of orders translates to about 4x oversubscribed, which is directionally what we’ve been hearing about the broader book…the question is whether retail translates indications of interest into actual, binding orders? And then if they do cut back, do they come in and purchase after the stock opens tomorrow?

[FinSquawk @finsquawk_]

SPACEX IPO RETAIL ORDERS ARE SAID TO INCREASE TO OVER $100B

[Leslie Picker @LesliePicker]

Elon Musk is doing the SpaceX IPO his way.

IPO conventions -- such as price ranges, quiet periods, and minimal retail allocations – have been thrown out the window.

Some applaud Musk’s simplification of the process and removal of the usual friction and gamesmanship involved. Others criticize it as risky and untested.

Remember: Mark Zuckerberg famously showed up to the Facebook roadshow in 2012 wearing a casual hoodie and faced major Wall Street backlash over it. Institutional investors have learned a lot about -- and embraced tech culture in the ensuing 14 years. But IPOs present a unique battleground where non-conformity can be either rewarded or punished.

As order books close at 4 p.m. today, we’ll find out whether SpaceX’s unique process has been a boon for the deal – or a barrier. Or whether it even matters, given the outsized influence of retail and indexes in this deal.

https://t.co/o8v5w09DSX

[Leslie Picker @LesliePicker]

"Intropic forecasts that 30% of the free float will ultimately be held by direct index trackers, while 25-30% has been allocated to retail investors. This leaves only 41% of the float in the hands of active investors, a lower share than is typically observed following large-cap US IPOs, where ownership is generally dominated by active managers."

[Leslie Picker @LesliePicker]

"By the end of the first three weeks, passive investors are projected to own 30% of the free float, creating a significant source of incremental demand within a relatively short period."

https://t.co/1Atj6HH6el

[Leslie Picker @LesliePicker]

Oh.

“SPCF intends to offer investors a way to magnify a bullish view on SpaceX without borrowing on margin on the day of SpaceX’s IPO...Investors will be able to target 2x daily returns of SpaceX with the convenience and transparency of an ETF.”

https://t.co/Z4u248whJH

[The Economic Club of New York @EconClubNY]

The Club recently welcomed David Solomon (@DavidSolomon), Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Goldman Sachs (@GoldmanSachs), in conversation with Leslie Picker (@LesliePicker), Senior Finance and Banking Reporter at @CNBC.

Drawing on decades of experience in investment banking and capital markets, Solomon shared his perspectives on economic trends, market dynamics, artificial intelligence, and the evolving role of financial institutions in a changing global economy.

Learn more about Club membership opportunities: https://t.co/rHO6nCVvJB

__
#ECNY #ArtificialIntelligence #CapitalMarkets #GlobalEconomy #Leadership

[Leslie Picker @LesliePicker]

2045 Ebitda = Earnings Before Interstellar Terrestrials Data-Center Amortization

[Leslie Picker @LesliePicker]

Reminder: oversubscription figures are based on indications of interest, not binding orders. Therefore, they can sometimes provide a false sense of demand.

Facebook's 2012 IPO was reportedly 20x oversubscribed. Uber's 2019 IPO was reportedly oversubscribed by day two of its roadshow. Both buzzy IPOs fizzled on day one.

There are countless examples of other IPOs that were oversubscribed and did really well in their debuts. But just because there's indicative demand...doesn't always mean there will be follow-through. 👍

[Leslie Picker @LesliePicker]

Not sure where this came from. We’ve been reporting for weeks that the company and its advisers are targeting 30% allocation to retail.

[Leslie Picker @LesliePicker]

👇👇

[J.P. Morgan @jpmorgan]

Live from our global headquarters: Jamie Dimon and Elon Musk discuss SpaceX and more. https://t.co/WQfJ3j8atX

[Leslie Picker @LesliePicker]

"On Wall Street, money is great, but bragging rights are better."

https://t.co/Fmh7i9WtMu

[Leslie Picker @LesliePicker]

@netanyahu to @SaraEisen on @CNBC: "I'd rather get a bad editorial than a positive obituary"

[The Economic Club of New York @EconClubNY]

Solomon on U.S.-China relations: The issues are highly complex, and it’s better that we’re now in a place where the leaders and the governments are actively talking to each other and have a stable dialogue than what we’ve had over the last few years.

Let’s hope that over the next 12–36 months, we can advance that dialogue and start to deal with some of the issues that have to be addressed.

#ECNYSolomon #GoldmanSachs #DavidSolomon @DavidSolomon @GoldmanSachs @LesliePicker

[Sam Ro 📈 @SamRo]

"We are definitely in a moment where there is more greed than there is fear. ... That's one of the reasons why people who need this capital are coming to the markets. Because the capital is available." - David Solomon to @LesliePicker

[Leslie Picker @LesliePicker]

SpaceX's IPO valuation is bound to have a steep "Musk premium" embedded in it, but the @nytimes did some fascinating analysis on how often he delivers. They found of more than 600 claims, he achieved 19 percent of them.

https://t.co/WZqtxRyV7V

[Leslie Picker @LesliePicker]

Note that a lot of the banks are generating fees in other ways from SpaceX as well, including the recent restructuring of the old X (Twitter) debt into a $20 billion bridge loan.

[Negligible Capital @negligible_cap]

*SPACEX PUSHES BANKS FOR ONE OF THE LOWEST IPO FEE RATES EVER

$SPCX negotiating to pay less than a 0.75% fee to IPO banks – banks still likely to rake in around $500m for the IPO per BBG.