DWL

lawyer; citizen, fact checker

[Shabbos Kestenbaum @ShabbosK]

If Mamdani would like me, a white New Yorker who never owned slaves, to pay a black New Yorker who never was a slave, then I propose:

Every Muslim in NYC starting with Mamdani, should pay us for 9/11.

Please explain why the latter makes no sense but the former does.

[Dividend Hero @HeroDividend]

>Be Leopold Aschenbrenner
>24 years old
>Born ~2001/2002 in Germany
>Son of two doctors
>Attend the John F. Kennedy School in Berlin
>Convince your parents to let you fly alone to the U.S. and enroll at Columbia University at age 15
>Graduate valedictorian in 2021 at age 19 with a B.A. in economics and mathematics-statistics
>Co-found Columbia’s effective altruism chapter
>Do research at Oxford’s Global Priorities Institute and co-author papers on long-term risks
>Join the FTX Future Fund in 2022, then resign before the collapse
>Land on OpenAI’s Superalignment team in 2023 under Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike
>Write an internal security memo warning about industrial espionage and China risks
>Get fired in April 2024 over an alleged information leak (which you dispute)
>Two months later drop a 165-page manifesto titled Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead predicting AGI around 2027 and runaway superintelligence
>Watch it go wildly viral (even Ivanka Trump praises it)
>Found Situational Awareness LP in late 2024 with ~$225 million, backed by the Collison brothers, Nat Friedman, Daniel Gross and others
Bet heavily on AI infrastructure—power, memory chips, data-center proxies, Bitcoin miners, CoreWeave, Nebius, Bloom Energy, Micron, Sandisk and more—while running high leverage
>Compound the fund to an estimated $20–24 billion AUM by mid-2026 with ~439% net gains since inception
>Get engaged to Avital Balwit (chief of staff to Anthropic’s CEO) and live in San Francisco
>Then, in late July 2026, after a brutal AI stock rout (many positions down >35%), shorts moving against you, and margin pressure from up to 4x leverage, liquidate the entire public equity book—longs and shorts—in one massive block trade to a single buyer
And he did it all by writing a prophetic essay, going all-in on the power-and-compute bottleneck, and riding the AI wave harder and faster than almost anyone.

Leopold Aschenbrenner is absolutely insane

[amit @amitisinvesting]

OH. MY. GOODNESS.

CITADEL HAS BOUGHT A MAJORITY OF THE PUBLIC ASSETS FROM LEOPOLD'S SITUATIONAL AWARENESS FUND.

So...Citadel scares everyone on Tuesday about a surprise rate hike during FOMC that WE ALL KNEW was not going to happen...

On Wednesday, the entire market freaks out about the rate hike which causes the selling to compound on itself creating 50-70% drawdowns across the board in high beta semicondcutor names...

Which means Leopold who we now know had $45B of assets and was 400% LEVERED ends up being the sacrifice as he gets liquidated at what theoretically could be the bottom due to not having the margin requirements to keep solvent...

AND THE PERSON WHO CAUSED THE SELLOFF WITH THE RATE HIKE FEARS ENDS UP COMING IN TO BUY HIS ASSETS FOR 40 TO 50 CENTS ON THE DOLLAR.

By the way, Leopold is getting married this weekend. I think he wanted to make sure he wasn't getting margin called during his wedding.

A vet on wall street in Ken Griffin takes out the young new kid.

ABSOLUTE. CINEMA.

[Jeremiah Johnson 🌐 @JeremiahDJohns]

The fact that Ossoff was smart enough, even in the midst of 2020-era peak woke, to say no to things like Defund the Police, Green New Deal, etc, is a sign that he understands how to win swing states in a way most national Democrats do not.

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

U.S. officials suspect China or Russia may be feeding Iran targeting data, after Tehran struck sensitive sites with unusual precision - WSJ

[Walton @waltonite0]

@FreddyLA7 Freddy is one post away from abandoning the World Cup and heading to Omaha for the College World Series

[𝖓𝖎𝖓𝖊 🕯 @atlanticesque]

University of Chicago: Placement of bright kids amidst a ghetto, produces future generations of central bankers, hardened against the lamentations of the lumpenproles

Columbia University: Placement of bright kids amidst a ghetto, mostly produces flaccid communists

What’s up

[Brian Allen @allenanalysis]

🚨 ABC News confirms: Iran used advanced passive infrared detection to shoot down the American F-15.

Passive infrared detection does not emit radar signals.

It cannot be detected or jammed by American electronic warfare systems.

It is invisible to the technology America has spent trillions building its air superiority around.

[DWL @lev_dw]

@lrozen @raoabhijeet Ask who might have given them advanced / new technology maybe?🤔

[DWL @lev_dw]

@lrozen @dcpoll Iran now has advanced passive infrared detection - which evades US detection….wonder where they got it from 🤔 🇨🇳 maybe?

[Anthony Scaramucci @Scaramucci]

You don’t ask for $200 billion if you don’t think it’s going to require ground troops.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

Assuming the USS Boxer is heading to the Middle East, and considering that she only left San Diego two days ago, she won't be near the Persian Gulf until mid-April.

If the reinforcements are intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, then the oil market faces a very long wait.

[Alex Witkoff @Alex_Witkoff]

If this is true, it is beyond outrageous. NYC’s Jewish community - the largest in the United States - should not have to fear for their safety under Mayor Mamdani

[Jonathan Schanzer @JSchanzer]

Holy Moly

[Cynical Publius @CynicalPublius]

Too few Americans understand that the whole time we were fighting in Afghanistan, and Iraq, and in the Horn of Africa, that we were actually fighting Iran all along.

Not sure why this is a mystery to so many Americans.

Finally, instead of fighting the claws of the lion, we are chopping off its head.

[Elica Le Bon الیکا‌ ل بن @elicalebon]

@RashidaTlaib On behalf of every Iranian in the world, fuck you.

[ELINT News @ELINTNews]

Impact reported near Palm Jumeirah in Dubai, UAE

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

Anthropic and OpenAI are almost asset classes unto themselves and there should be pressure on them to become publicly-traded companies ASAP.

[Dilan Esper @dilanesper]

BTW, Justice Gorsuch's concurrence is remarkable for a reason most people won't pick up on-- this is basically the first time another member of the Court has ever called BS on one of Justice Thomas' crazy separate opinions. Gorsuch tears him apart.

[Grant Williams @ttmygh]

The silence from Hollywood and the ‘protesting class’ over events in Iran is utterly, utterly shameful and yet speaks a thousand words about all of them