Jawad

Updates and analysis on the Levant and Geopolitics as a whole. All opinions are my own, RT and Quote Tweets do not mean endorsement

[Jawad @levantupdates]

My geopolitical predictions and analysis for 2026:

1. 110 years after Sykes-Picot we are facing a new project called the United Abrahamic States with its goal of partitioning existing countries based on sectarian and ethnic lines. The project is based on Israeli hegemony through occupation of land and natural resources.

2. Uprisings in Syria that will do more then spark annexation talks, a alawite state on the coast a durzi state in the south and a Kurdish state in the north. The momentum of annexation will spread to other countries forcing unusual alliances to form.

3. A youth movement in the Middle East. Leadership changes in Bahrain and Jordan. Hussein ibn Abdullah will be crowned king. Turkey will have a new president.

4. The rivalry between the UAE and Saudi Arabia will reach Saudi Arabia, MBS will face his biggest challenges internally after the death of Salman, and we may see a Ritz Carlton 2.0

5. 3 governments in Yemen

6. Attempts at destabilizing the regime in Egypt with fingers pointed towards the Muslim brotherhood. Protests and chants form but in my opinion won’t succeed. The deployment of the Egyptian military and its navy across Africa.

7. Nuclear and Intercontinental Iran.

8. New governments in Lebanon and Palestine pave the way for reform.

9. Without stating the obvious there is no such thing as a ceasefire.

10. Geological and financial crisis worldwide.

[Jawad @levantupdates]

Leaving this post here to revisit throughout the year. These are just predictions of the Middle East based on analysis.

1) We will use the word “replaced” more than word “elected” when it comes to leadership across the middle east. We will find it hard to distinguish between revolutions and coups. Families that were in power before will resurface in the news in countries such as Iraq, Egypt, Libya, Palestine and yes even Syria.

2) The hysteria that the Muslim world used in regard to Wilayat Al Fakih will now shift to the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood especially in Egypt and Jordan.

3) Unfortunately the same images that we saw in Beirut and the Dahya we could see in Sanaa Yemen.

4) The existential threat that the factions in Gaza used to launch October 7th will be used to launch a similar operation in the West Bank.

5) Iran will face its biggest test internally and will lead to it exerting its force externally.

6) Repeat of True Promise but this time in Lebanon.

7) After a brief scare of civil war adversaries in Lebanon and Palestine will put differences aside and rule together.

8) The prisoners that were promised to be released from Palestine will be released including Al Bargouthi.

9) Fist fights turn into hand shakes between Iran and the gulf countries.

10) The war in Lebanon in certain areas isn’t over.

[Jawad @levantupdates]

Has anyone heard from Saudis Defense Minister Khalid Bin Salman!

[Jawad @levantupdates]

@FreeSyrianMemes Honestly first time I see a Syrian whose profile pics matches their personality

[Jawad @levantupdates]

I don’t care who this offends.

The Shia will not be exterminated in silence, either the world lives with us or burns without us.

[Jawad @levantupdates]

Hezbollah MP Ali Al Ammar

I say to the Lebanese: We have 10 tough days ahead of us..

Between the elections in the states and the occupied entity, they could seize the moment to attack at anytime. I hope the support base of the resistance will be characterized by patience. There is no fear for the resistance.. The resistance is at the highest levels of readiness in capabilities and preparations.

[Jawad @levantupdates]

Does he think we can’t read?

The comments 😂 are a good indicator of what’s going to happen in November’s elections. The people are fed up with the lies .

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent @SecScottBessent]

Despite Iran’s efforts to disrupt energy shipments, oil exports from the Persian Gulf are roaring back and have surpassed pre-conflict levels.

The message is clear: Iran’s threats have failed to stop the flow of energy to global markets.

[Jawad @levantupdates]

@MBSBB0 The name is ironic since neither you or your parents have any honor.

[Jawad @levantupdates]

Hezbollah Political Bloc: Indicators warn of placing the region on a hot plate, and Lebanon is not immune to fragmentation due to the direction events are heading in its surroundings.

[Jawad @levantupdates]

In my assessment:

If the war resumes at full force (which seems likely at this point) Lebanons and particularly Hezbollahs options are 3.

1. Maintain the status quo in hopes for a regional development revolving around the elections or political breakthrough to force an Israeli withdrawal.

2. Reenter the war-and some will say as a support front to Iran which is not the case. Iran does not require a support front, although the concept of the unity of the fronts will be present. The front in Lebanon would be reopened under the premise to liberate the occupied territories in accordance to international law for those who are hung up on it.

3-await an Israeli expansion of strikes under the premise that it wants to expand the buffer zone to improve its negotiation leverage at which Hezbollahs reentry would be forced to defend.

In my estimation option 2 and 3 are the most likely, however their entry may not begin right away they could wait a few days or weeks depending on the circumstances of the war to assess their involvement as they did during the 40 day war or 12 day war and assess the developments.

Either way the region is holding its collective breath, with all hands on the trigger.

[Jawad @levantupdates]

@9mmScorpion 😂😂

[Jawad @levantupdates]

اللهم إني أسألك بحق فاطمة وأبيها وبعلها وبنيها والسر المستودع فيها أن تصلي على محمد وآل محمد.

[غلامحسین محسنی اژه‌ای @ejei_org]

ما هر چه داریم از حضرت زهرا (س) داریم.
اگر رزمندگان‌مان طی سه جنگ تحمیلی، بر دشمن متجاوز فائق آمدند، به برکت نصرت الهی بواسطه‌ی دعاهای حضرت زهرا (س) بود.

[Jawad @levantupdates]

$14 a gallon?! Rudolph and the rest of Santa’s reindeer are gonna have to drag my ass to Walmart for groceries, because there ain’t a chance in hell I’m filling up my tank. At those prices, I better hear sleigh bells every time I leave the house.

[Jawad @levantupdates]

Trump: We are holding constructive talks with Iran and will not attack it before the midterm elections

Oil went up a dollar to 117 after this 😂

[Jawad @levantupdates]

Who said the 450 KG of H.E Uranium is in Pickaxe Mountain?

[Jawad @levantupdates]

My prayers go out to the victims of the Karak Church in Jordan.

[Jawad @levantupdates]

Sympathizing with an Israeli makes you a Zionist.

[Jawad @levantupdates]

We have now entered the last Friday and final weekend before the Israeli occupations elections with Brent at 114 dollars a barrel.

[Jawad @levantupdates]

@LP313_12

[Jawad @levantupdates]

When the Israelis join the coalition against Ansarallah and strike Sana’a, they’re going to have to host an entire Olympics on here just to accommodate the mental gymnastics some people are going to perform.

[Jawad @levantupdates]

Don’t think I forgot for a minute what some of you said.

[Jawad @levantupdates]

When that first siren in Tel Aviv starts ringing I’m going to be insufferable to all of you “what about Israel” morons on here.

[Jawad @levantupdates]

I ask Allah SWT to watch over Lebanon and protect it from its enemies both foreign and domestic.