leveredturtle

a credit guy who likes investing

[leveredturtle @leveredturtle]

I am now a $SES.TO shareholder. I think this is a very unique opportunity to own high-quality waste assets at a 7-8% FCF yield, which are likely to continue growing.

My thoughts are here: https://t.co/w874hnU5wa

[Adam Wilk @AKWilk]

1000th take on $RDDT, sorry, and no dog in this fight, but why are people copy and pasting the earnings results 10Q? We understand it was a good quarter. Clearly that's not the issue?

First, guidance is no longer credible as management isn't taking it seriously, so these massive beats won't be treated as such. Second, Google is either a narrative risk, in which case you should probably be massively long (not advice, DYODD), or there's serious economic exposure. I've seen no one really making the case for which one it is yet. US user growth declining is a real problem though.

Also please stop comparing $RDDT to $META in any form. Yes, there's an ARPU gap and maybe it's being fixed with product updates / changes, and US ARPU has been growing nicely, but they will never approach META levels. Also the US user ceiling is probably more important / more of a risk than Google.

At today's price, which seems asymmetric depending on the above, you're probably being compensated for monetization with a cheap option on user growth, but so many unknowns.

Also playing chicken re: a new data licensing agreement is probably not a great idea if that's what management is doing. The second LLMs become less dependent on Reddit they lose all leverage. And they are likely at peak leverage right now. Dependence on Reddit for training is declining rapidly while synthetic data and transfer learning is reducing the importance of Reddit's content even more.

[leveredturtle @leveredturtle]

$VASO just sold NetWolves for ~$15mm; almost ~50% of the market cap as of market close

One step closer to having the crown jewel biz as a standalone entity

Original thoughts were here: https://t.co/F024S9boml

[leveredturtle @leveredturtle]

“positive L/S spread reversed” is just bullshit for “we doubled down on the same thematic bet”

[Leopold Stock Tracker @LeopoldTracker_]

Breaking: Leopold's full letter sent to his LPs last night

Leopold Aschenbrenner’s fund fell 67% in July but remains up 80% YTD and he announced he'll keep investing in public equities

[leveredturtle @leveredturtle]

Discussing $AW.TO, $SES.TO, and $CCRN - comparing the performance of these picks to the S&P 500

https://t.co/yKzpZVtkW2

Honourable mentions to $VASO, $CPRT, and $MBGL - haven’t had enough time pass to assess them, but plan to in the future.

[leveredturtle @leveredturtle]

This market is just fascinating

[leveredturtle @leveredturtle]

My life would be fixed with an L shaped desk in a study in a house in the country on an acre of land where I have nothing to do but write

[leveredturtle @leveredturtle]

Love this quote from Jeremy Morehouse (Head of $MBGL’s AI Office)

“AI’s not replacing the need for data. It’s actually increasing it… We have decision-grade data, VIN-level data, global data that allows us to provide these services to customers in a trustworthy way that public AI can’t do.”

Consistent with a recurring theme several management teams have emphasized re: AI - owning unique data is very important.

[High Yield Harry @HighyieldHarry]

Born too early to live in Space.

Born too late to name my private equity firm after a Greek God.

[leveredturtle @leveredturtle]

$UBER interesting news. Something I don’t understand is how standalone AV platform economics are viable. Insurance, regulatory, cost of vehicles. Seems like a race to the bottom. Not sure Waymo is going to be the darling child, and not sure Uber should want an AV-filled future.

[leveredturtle @leveredturtle]

@ariaradnia Leverage is truly a wonder of the world

[leveredturtle @leveredturtle]

@debt_serious @FCF_Freddy Are you telling me you don’t want to lend to the Archimedes Zeus Apollo Creed 8.7/10 imbd tactical fund 0.6?

[leveredturtle @leveredturtle]

Today I talk about regrets on a small cap with >250% IRR on this bite-sized $CCRN post mortem

https://t.co/JAWfIFUibf

[leveredturtle @leveredturtle]

@FCF_Freddy Have I stumbled on private credit X or CB X? Either way are you me???

[Finding Compounders @F_Compounders]

Warren Buffett had his dad take him out the will because he knew he would be rich anyway

[Dirtcheapstocks @dirtcheapstocks]

SpaceX was valued at ~$3 trillion a month ago.

Say you want a 10% ROI.

A $3T investment must pay you $300B in perpetuity.

If the biz makes $0 for next 5 years, it must pay you $483B in year 6 and every year after.

SPCX did $19B of revenue in 2025.

The stock is down 45%.

[Speedwell Research @Speedwell_LLC]

Former VP at GEICO on how lower frequency is impacting $CPRT

"When insurance premiums go up, the average American is paying 50% more today than they were in 2020.

That's never happened in my 40 years in insurance."

@AlphaSenseInc

[leveredturtle @leveredturtle]

@Larryjamieson_ Bought into BTI at $30/sh in Apr’24 and rode it up 40% + ~8-9% yield for like a year and felt like the man

A bit tragic lol

[leveredturtle @leveredturtle]

This was a cool call to look back on $CCRN

[leveredturtle @leveredturtle]

In $SPGI ‘s healthcare staffing covg, 4/5 issuers are private equity owned. $CCRN is trading at ~$8/share w/ ~$3.50 in net cash & fcf pre-COVID averaging ~$0.60-0.70/ share p.a over the decade. Hard to not see this as a viable PE target outside of simply cheap.

[leveredturtle @leveredturtle]

My laziest and most embarrassing long that I can admit to was buying $ETSY solely on free cash flow yield and stupid levels share buybacks

+35% and that was pretty much the ‘thesis’

it was w/ play money so really just some nice pocket change for the PA but… nice

[leveredturtle @leveredturtle]

$CPRT is too interesting after a 50% drawdown and Jay coming back to not give some attention to…

https://t.co/fZqMEAqGSt