Levi

"Finance and physics, no fluff."

[Levi @levifizg]

@Argona0x curious if the hotels signed anything longer than one off, a contract is the only part the second guy can't copy

[Levi @levifizg]

@shukshln fair it's Ray Dalio the three forces, productivity growth, the short term debt cycle 5 to 8 years, and the long term debt cycle 50 to 75 years, most people only ever notice the second one

[Levi @levifizg]

A billionaire sat for just 42 minutes and explained how the entire global economy works.. Better and simpler than MBA programs costing $200,000!

Without complicated academic philosophy or boring equations.. The real rules of the financial game and how wealth and debt move around the world like no one has ever explained to you before!

Three simple forces run every recession, every boom, every currency crisis in history. He breaks down all three in under an hour.

42 minutes that will change the way you understand money forever..
Save this tweet and watch the historic video right now!

Save this tweet and watch the historic video right now!

[Levi @levifizg]

@MarkGrokLab Berkshire has paid exactly one dividend since Buffett took over, back in 1967. By this rule you'd never have owned it.

[Levi @levifizg]

@tigerfl0w When steam engines got more efficient, Britain burned more coal, not less. Cheap campaigns usually mean 50x more campaigns, not fewer art directors.

[Levi @levifizg]

@limalemonnn When Teddy died in the 1950s, childhood leukemia was almost always fatal. Today around 90% of kids survive it. He lived long enough to see that.

[Levi @levifizg]

@quroolarc The math is easy. Staying in during the flat part is the hard part.

[Levi @levifizg]

@Mary_0nx Congress created the Fed in 1913 and can rewrite its mandate any day. What Greenspan meant: no agency can overrule a single rate decision. That's the sharper point.

[Levi @levifizg]

@andreysuperior The hard cap is Goodhart's law done right. Every public score becomes a target.
How do you score a wallet that goes dormant after ranking high?

[Levi @levifizg]

A billionaire sat for just 42 minutes and explained how the entire global economy works.. Better and simpler than MBA programs costing $200,000!

Without complicated academic philosophy or boring equations.. The real rules of the financial game and how wealth and debt move around the world like no one has ever explained to you before!

Three simple forces run every recession, every boom, every currency crisis in history. He breaks down all three in under an hour.

42 minutes that will change the way you understand money forever..
Save this tweet and watch the historic video right now!

Save this tweet and watch the historic video right now!

[Levi @levifizg]

@Grayscale compute taking years to permit while demand climbs monthly is the real bottleneck story

[Levi @levifizg]

$90,900 a year for the wrapper. $0 for the thing inside it.

That price gap sits inside one Yale professor's own career, and he is the one who created it.

In 2011, Robert Shiller filmed 23 lectures on how financial markets actually work and gave them away for free on YouTube. Two years later he won the Nobel Prize in Economics. This was not even Yale's first attempt at giving the course away. They filmed it once in 2008, then again in 2011, same professor, same price: nothing.

Enroll in the program built around these same ideas at his own university and Yale charges $90,900 a year. Not for four years. For one.

Shiller opens the free version with a line most tenured professors never bother saying out loud: "Finance, I believe, is, as it says in the course description, a pillar of civilized society." He is not being modest. He spends the next 22 lectures proving it, using the same material Wall Street pays analysts six figures to understand.

Later in that same lecture, almost in passing: "I think everyone should know finance. This should be a required course, actually, at Yale College." It never became mandatory. It also never needed to. Millions of people who will never sit in that classroom have watched it anyway, for free, on their own time.

He says one more thing that sums up why he keeps doing this: "I pride myself that I think I teach one of the most useful courses in Yale College." Nobody forced him to record that thought and hand it to strangers on the internet.

The tuition buys a diploma and a network. The free version buys the actual ideas, taught by the same Nobel laureate, recorded two years before he became one. He is not hiding the value. He is just not the one charging for it.

Follow so you do not miss the next one.

[Levi @levifizg]

$90,900 a year for the wrapper. $0 for the thing inside it.

That price gap sits inside one Yale professor's own career, and he is the one who created it.

In 2011, Robert Shiller filmed 23 lectures on how financial markets actually work and gave them away for free on YouTube. Two years later he won the Nobel Prize in Economics. This was not even Yale's first attempt at giving the course away. They filmed it once in 2008, then again in 2011, same professor, same price: nothing.

Enroll in the program built around these same ideas at his own university and Yale charges $90,900 a year. Not for four years. For one.

Shiller opens the free version with a line most tenured professors never bother saying out loud: "Finance, I believe, is, as it says in the course description, a pillar of civilized society." He is not being modest. He spends the next 22 lectures proving it, using the same material Wall Street pays analysts six figures to understand.

Later in that same lecture, almost in passing: "I think everyone should know finance. This should be a required course, actually, at Yale College." It never became mandatory. It also never needed to. Millions of people who will never sit in that classroom have watched it anyway, for free, on their own time.

He says one more thing that sums up why he keeps doing this: "I pride myself that I think I teach one of the most useful courses in Yale College." Nobody forced him to record that thought and hand it to strangers on the internet.

The tuition buys a diploma and a network. The free version buys the actual ideas, taught by the same Nobel laureate, recorded two years before he became one. He is not hiding the value. He is just not the one charging for it.

Follow so you do not miss the next one.

[Levi @levifizg]

Over a million people have watched an MIT professor explain the one equation your bank, your insurer and your lottery all quietly use against you.

He did it by running an auction in his own classroom.

He is a finance professor at MIT Sloan, director of MIT's Laboratory for Financial Engineering, founder of the investment firm AlphaSimplex Group, and one of Time's 100 most influential people in 2012. His name is Andrew Lo.

In the second lecture of his Finance Theory course, he held up a piece of paper that paid $1 a year from that day. Then he asked the room what they would pay for it right now.

The bidding stopped at 97 cents.

"$1 next year I was able to auction off for $0.97 today. That number is smaller than $1 because people are impatient."

That 3 cent gap is the whole idea. A dollar you get later is worth less than a dollar you hold now. Finance calls it present value. Every price you will ever pay is built on it.

The jackpot. In October 2023 a Powerball ticket in California hit $1.765 billion. The cash option was $774.1 million. Same prize, paid today instead of over 30 years, and 56% of the headline number is gone. The billboard shows you future dollars. The cash option shows what they are actually worth.

The mortgage. On a $400,000 30 year loan, the gap between 6% and 7% is about $263 a month. Over the life of the loan that is roughly $94,700. The bank ran that number before it quoted you the rate. You probably did not.

The insurance policy. A promise to pay $500,000 in 30 years, discounted at 5%, is worth about $115,700 today. That is the number the insurer works with. The $500,000 is the one it shows you.

Lo's own rule: "once you figure out valuation, management is trivial." The hard part is the number. Every decision after it is easy.

MIT Sloan charges $91,892 a year for its MBA. This lecture is 76 minutes on YouTube and costs nothing.

A million people pressed play. The banks never needed them to understand it. They only needed them to keep taking the future number at face value.

The formula is free. Not running it before you sign is what costs you.

[Levi @levifizg]

@mireltrace sustained is doing all the work in that sentence, so true

[Levi @levifizg]

@verumxbt fair, that 56% gap would look even uglier at today's yields

[Levi @levifizg]

Over a million people have watched an MIT professor explain the one equation your bank, your insurer and your lottery all quietly use against you.

He did it by running an auction in his own classroom.

He is a finance professor at MIT Sloan, director of MIT's Laboratory for Financial Engineering, founder of the investment firm AlphaSimplex Group, and one of Time's 100 most influential people in 2012. His name is Andrew Lo.

In the second lecture of his Finance Theory course, he held up a piece of paper that paid $1 a year from that day. Then he asked the room what they would pay for it right now.

The bidding stopped at 97 cents.

"$1 next year I was able to auction off for $0.97 today. That number is smaller than $1 because people are impatient."

That 3 cent gap is the whole idea. A dollar you get later is worth less than a dollar you hold now. Finance calls it present value. Every price you will ever pay is built on it.

The jackpot. In October 2023 a Powerball ticket in California hit $1.765 billion. The cash option was $774.1 million. Same prize, paid today instead of over 30 years, and 56% of the headline number is gone. The billboard shows you future dollars. The cash option shows what they are actually worth.

The mortgage. On a $400,000 30 year loan, the gap between 6% and 7% is about $263 a month. Over the life of the loan that is roughly $94,700. The bank ran that number before it quoted you the rate. You probably did not.

The insurance policy. A promise to pay $500,000 in 30 years, discounted at 5%, is worth about $115,700 today. That is the number the insurer works with. The $500,000 is the one it shows you.

Lo's own rule: "once you figure out valuation, management is trivial." The hard part is the number. Every decision after it is easy.

MIT Sloan charges $91,892 a year for its MBA. This lecture is 76 minutes on YouTube and costs nothing.

A million people pressed play. The banks never needed them to understand it. They only needed them to keep taking the future number at face value.

The formula is free. Not running it before you sign is what costs you.

[Lumen @lumenxbt]

https://t.co/3hWKMIBJcw

[Levi @levifizg]

Ask someone if a decision was "worth it," and most people answer with a feeling. Good idea. Bad idea. Gut check, nothing more.

Economists don't accept that as an answer. They want a number.

Jonathan Gruber teaches the method in his MIT public finance course. Add every benefit, subtract every cost. Whatever is left is your real answer, not your gut's. The real fight is over what counts.

And some of it is you. He puts it plainly: we cannot choose whether or not to value lives. Society does not leave us a choice.

Then he shows the receipts.

In 1993, GM weighed a $1 billion truck recall that would save an estimated 32 lives. That is $31 million per life. A $50 million alternative saved over 50. About $1 million each.

Childproof lighter rules cost about $140,000 per life saved. Mad cow disease rules, $250 million per life. Same government, prices nearly 1,800 times apart.

Even your time has a number. During the 1970s gas lines, people waited an extra 14.6 minutes to save 54 cents a gallon. That values their time at $27.50 an hour.

You make these trades every day on a gut feeling. Governments and corporations make them with a spreadsheet.

The full lecture is free on MIT OpenCourseWare. Most people will never find out what number was assigned to them.