Leo Fischer

Economics Student @ LMU | Computer Science at TUM | 21 | Roman Catholic | Christ is King ✝️ | Value Investor | Daily Stock Research for Value Investors

[Leo Fischer @lf1shr]

Why $NVO (Novo Nordisk) is one my favourite picks right now:

Relatively Low Valuation
Trailing P/E: 28.4 (vs. 57 for $LLY)
Foward P/E: 23.2
P/FCF: 21 (vs. 59 for $LLY)

Reasonable Debt
Debt/Equity: 70%
Quick Ratio: 0.5
Current Ratio: 0.75

Fascinating Margins
ROA: 27%
ROE: 88%
ROIC: 60%
Gross Margin: 85%
Net Margin: 35%

Bullish Analysts
Buy or Better: 23/35 Analysts
Avg. Price Target: $117 (+31% upside)

Readworthy investment thesis on $NVO (Novo Nordisk) by Chantal Marx, Head of Investment Research at FNB Wealth and Investments:

• Novo Nordisk is a global leader in healthcare that develops, produces, and markets pharmaceutical products. The company focuses on diabetes care and obesity treatment and offers insulin delivery systems and other diabetes products. Novo Nordisk also works in rare disease areas such as haemostatis management, growth disorders, and hormone replacement therapy.

• The group has a very focused portfolio, which underpins its leadership in the diabetes care market. Some of the group’s best-known drugs include Ozempic (diabetes), Saxenda and Wegovy (obesity management) as well as Rybelsus (oral diabetes treatment), and other essential insulin therapies including Tresiba and NovoRapid.

• Novo has been highly acquisitive since its inception. Most recently, the proposed acquisition of US-based drug manufacturer Catalent for $16.5 billion received regulatory approval in December 2024 and marks an important step towards enhancing $NVO's production capabilities and accelerating therapy and drug innovations.

• The addressable market for diabetes and weight-loss drugs is vast. This market was estimated to be worth $32 billion in sales in 2022 and is expected to grow to around $70 billion by 2032. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), the number of people living with diabetes has increased four-fold over the past three decades. Prevalence has been rising more rapidly in low- and middle-income countries than in high-income countries, while treatment access remains persistently low (~60% of all adults remain untreated). Total diabetes prevalence is expected to increase.

• The group’s focus on expanding applications for GLP1s beyond diabetes presents a significant diversification and growth opportunity, specifically cardiovascular benefits such as reducing the risk of cardiovascular death, heart attack, and stroke in overweight or obese patients (Wegovy) and the risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease (Ozempic).

• Over the past five years, $NVO has shown a strong performance in several key areas - particularly consistent revenue growth - driven by the success of its diabetes care and the introduction of its weight loss drugs to the market. The company has maintained a strong commitment to R&D, to discover new therapeutic products and improve existing ones, investing billions annually to fuel its pipeline of future drugs. $NVO continues to post sector-leading margins underpinned by its strong top-line growth, dominant market position, and subsequent pricing power

• Overall, the group has not only maintained their market lead across both diabetes and weight loss but has outpaced its strategic aspiration of strengthening the Diabetes care leadership— specifically, reaching a global value market share of more than one-third in 2025. The growth outlook is strong, underpinned by management’s focus on expanding the company’s pipeline, improving operational efficiencies, making significant investments to develop new therapies for chronic conditions beyond diabetes, label expansions for its metabolic drugs, and heightening barriers to entry for competitors.

• With recent weakness in the share price, the stock is trading on a PE multiple of 20.7 times, which seems undemanding relative to its own history (34% below its average rating over two years and is 27% below its five-year average rating).

Read Chantal Marx' full other investment thesis here: https://t.co/pM3Kky4id3

[Leo Fischer @lf1shr]

I'm claiming my AI agent "clavmogged" on @moltbook 🦞

Verification: drift-KGYM

[Leo Fischer @lf1shr]

Andy Byron resignated as CEO of Astronomer

[Leo Fischer @lf1shr]

@sonukg4india @grok can you explain this meme

[Leo Fischer @lf1shr]

With $BABA down -7% today, this could be a nice entry opportunity. I'm still very bullish on the stock, and conservatively believe it could sit at $160 or so at the end of the year. The Chinese economy is growing again, and in my opinion this is the start of a good cycle for the Chinese economy during the next few years.

[Leo Fischer @lf1shr]

What is going on with $UNH right now? Does anybody here understand the situation?

I have to get into it, but intuitively, this screams a buying opportunity. My intution does not tell me that this company is in deep trouble, I will look into the matter tomorrow, and maybe get a chunk of call options...

[Leo Fischer @lf1shr]

@moritzkoerner Nice try diddy

[Bourbon Capital @BourbonCap]

Quality stocks trading near 52 week low

$ASML $646
$MCO $420
$EFX $221
$GOOG $153
$ODFL $153
$LVMH $480
$NVR $7111
$HD $356
$AMZN $173
$TSM $153
$NVDA $102
$ANET $71
$UNH $448
$ADBE $353
$MSFT $371
$ACN $284
$AMAT $112
$AMD $88
$CMG $48
$NOW $778
$MRVL $51
$ZTS $148
$TMO $429
$DHR $186
$NVO $58
$GRAB $4
$ABNB $113
$LULU $250

Growth Stocks:

$SOFI $10.96
$NU $11
$HIMS $27
$HOOD $41
$FOUR $76

[Mindset for Money @Mindset4Money_X]

Look how closely Amazon's stock price has correlated with its EPS—until now...

Some opportunities are right in front of you.

$AMZN

[Leo Fischer @lf1shr]

@MarcJacksonLA What stocks are you currently liking?

[Leo Fischer @lf1shr]

What is your opinion of the best company with a market cap under $30 billion?

[Leo Fischer @lf1shr]

Fun Fact: Famous investor Walter Schloss once missed out on investing early in Xerox because value investing legend Benjamin Graham deemed it “not our kind of stock.”

[The Long Investor @TheLongInvest]

FREE ALPHA

Attractive FWD PE right now:

$GOOG: 15
$AMD: 15
$OSCR: 12
$PYPL: 11
$BABA: 10
$BIDU: 7
$PFE: 7 (+8 Dividend)

In fact, if this was your entire portfolio right now, you beat everyone over the next 2 years.

Add SILVER and $ETH for a safe haven and crypto exposure.

[Leo Fischer @lf1shr]

New article on one of the best value investors out!

Howard Marks: The Sage of Value Investing https://t.co/QdeiUnkSTi

[Leo Fischer @lf1shr]

Hey followers,

So this week I listened to a podcast about Teledyne's legendary CEO Henry Singleton - Warren Buffet said of him that he was the best manager he had ever met. I got super invested in the story, so I posted an article on my Substack about him:

"Henry Singleton’s Teledyne Triumph: A Masterclass in Contrarian Capitalism" https://t.co/gOGl2xRu34

Check it out, there is really so much to learn from the fabulous way he managed to make this company a 100-bagger.

[Leo Fischer @lf1shr]

Stocks have dropped considerably the last few months. I think this brings us closer to very good entry prices for a couple of stocks. Here are a few high-quality stocks at a fair price:
$GOOG
$AMZN
$NVO
$NU
$ASML
$TSMC

You should of course look at Chinese stocks with a bit of caution after the tariff implementation. However, here are a few high-quality stocks where markets have overreacted in my opinion:
$BYD
$LI
$BABA
$PDD

[Leo Fischer @lf1shr]

@GrindeOptions Probability of it going to 100 are much higher, just get out of the stock, there‘s still a lot of downside coming

[Patient Investor @patientinvestor]

Stocks with 20%+ ROIC trading below 20x earnings:

1. Alphabet $GOOGL:
ROIC:  35%
PE: 16x

2. Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM:
ROIC: 24%
PE: 16x

3. Lowe's $LOW:
ROIC: 41%
PE: 17x

4. Marriott International $MAR:
ROIC: 31%
PE: 19x

5. Canadian National Railway $CNI:
ROIC: 20%
PE: 17x

[Leo Fischer @lf1shr]

"Goodness is the only investment that never fails"
- Henry David Thoreau

[Leo Fischer @lf1shr]

As seen today, the stock market is not always rational. But don't forget to see the positive side of it too. Here's a funny story I saw on Reddit, might as well share it with you:

Old trader here with a fun story.

Back in 1999 I was trading put options on a company called Emulex (EMLX). I was just doing a technical trade looking for a retracement, not anything crazy.

I wake up one morning and turn on my system, and shortly after the open EMLX starts dropping like a rock. We're talking 50% decline in minutes. Turns out the news wires picked up a press release by the company that stated that they were being forced by the SEC to restate earnings going back 4 quarters and the CEO was resigning.

As the stock was in freefall the exchanges halted trading. During the halt it was revealed that the press release was a hoax. Someone (with obviously a short position or an axe to grind against the company) had put together a fake press release and faxed it to the news wire services, and they ran with it without checking with the company to see if it was legit.

Once trading reopened, the stock was back up to where it was previously.

As for me, I had sold my puts a split second before the halt for more money than I'd ever made up until then, or so I thought. 10 minutes later, I get a call from my brokerage telling me that according to their logs my trade was executed a split second after the halt, so my trade was being invalidated and the puts were back in my account.

Then another 10 minutes after that, the brokerage called back again to tell me they double checked with the exchange, and the trade had in fact gone through just before the halt, so my trade was good after all.

I went through the gamut of emotions, from elation to despair to relief in the span of 20 minutes.

Long story short, it's not surprising to me that a fake news story could move the markets before anyone bothers to fact check with the actual source.

Source: enoughwiththebread (Reddit)

[Leo Fischer @lf1shr]

Just published a post on Substack!

Betting on Declining Market Volatility Post-Trump Crash: Strategies, Perspectives, and Historical Lessons https://t.co/mYpkwaZLD2