连翼

专注 Polymarket 与加密交易策略，兼顾金融量化、AI 学习与 Web3 技术分析
Polymarket & crypto trading strategies · quant · AI · Web3 · technical analysis

[连翼 @lianyi520]

专注三件事：
1）Polymarket 交易思路与复盘（盈亏都记）
2）加密 / 金融量化：可重复的规则，不靠感觉
3）AI × Web3：把模型输出变成可执行交易清单 + 技术分析

怎么看这个号：
· 原创带图 = 当天结论
· 大号楼下回复 = 补细节，不是互关
· 不纯转活动帖

从今天起按这个节奏更新。
你在跟 Poly、量化，还是 AI 交易？评论区扣 1 / 2 / 3。

[连翼 @lianyi520]

BTCUSDT.P｜这笔多单，按 1:3 布局推进中

4H：高点约 87.4k 回撤后，区间下沿附近企稳；0.5 位 81.1k 是清晰阻力目标。
15m：低位结构确认后做多（CISD），止损放下方无效区。

入场 ≈ 77,516
止损 ≈ 76,270（风险约 1,246）
1:3 目标 ≈ 81,147（对齐 4H 0.5 Fib）

现价 77,883，刚离开入场区、约 0.3R；上方还有 79.7k（0.618）可作过程阻力。
模型偏 Neutral，执行看结构，不追情绪。
非投资建议。

#BTC #技术分析 #SMC #Crypto

[连翼 @lianyi520]

LINKUSDT.P｜这笔多单，马上要走完 1:3

4H：高位 CHoCH 后连续 BOS 下行，低位扫流动性（约 10.608）后反转。
5m：在扫流动性处做多，止损放下方无效区。

入场 ≈ 10.643
止损 ≈ 10.252（风险约 0.39）
1:3 目标 ≈ 11.82

现价 11.713，约 2.7R，距离 3R 只差一截。
上方结构还有 12.01 / 12.20 / 12.80（CISD）可作延伸观察，但本笔纪律先按 1:3 兑现。

模型偏 Neutral，不追情绪；执行看结构。
非投资建议。

#LINK #技术分析 #SMC #Crypto

[连翼 @lianyi520]

读完一批公开材料后，我把「Polymarket 加密侧」常见思路收成一张地图（非投资建议）：

① Spot-lag：现货已确认方向，盘口还没跟上
② Lead-prob：不猜下一根K，只买「领先幅度」的历史胜率折价
③ YES+NO＜$1：结构套利，但单边成交＝方向仓
④ Maker+rebate：Crypto taker 费率最高（fee=0.07·p·(1-p)，50¢附近最贵）
⑤ 跨所价差：规则/结算源不一致时，「套利」会变双亏
⑥ 聪明钱跟单：短周期上延迟跟单期望常为负

公开回测能学机制，不能把 X 上「日赚数万」截图当成绩。
接下来会拆其中 1–2 条写细。

#Polymarket #Crypto #量化

[连翼 @lianyi520]

@gl2361 @odagius @BNBStandard @yzilabs 大哥 ppoly到底什么情况啊 亏麻了

[连翼 @lianyi520]

@openclawby 给你的AI Agent 装上超强大脑！

Clawby 为金融 Agent 提供实时行情、链上数据、资金流分析及交易信号 —— 365+ 接口，一个 API key，一键搞定！

🎁 使用邀请码 y1tds9 加入 Clawby！

https://t.co/7hTqIghX5T

@openclawby

[连翼 @lianyi520]

@taoonchain 你也在研究poly吗 我也一直在研究poly 一起沟通学习

[连翼 @lianyi520]

@zhengli522772 @NFTCPS 兄弟你也在研究poly策略 交流一下

[pieverse @pieverse_io]

🚀 Phase 4 of the Pieverse x @BinanceWallet Booster Campaign is LIVE!

The final phase begins and the future of timestamped, verifiable payments continues.

🎁 30,000,000 $PIEVERSE (3% of the total initial supply) will be distributed across 4 phases of this campaign.

🗓️ Phase 4 begins today, October 28 at 9AM UTC.

💰 7.5M $PIEVERSE prize pool for Phase 4
✅ Complete all tasks in each phase to qualify for the reward pool.
🔑 All users with a keyless wallet and sufficient Alpha Points are eligible.
🤖 No bots, no cheating. Only verified human actions count.

This phase brings the Timestamping Alliance into action—complete invoice and receipt tasks using partner tokens and experience how verified payments power the Web3 economy.

And as we wrap the campaign, stay tuned for what’s next: x402b, bringing gasless, auditable payments to the BNB ecosystem, powered by Pieverse Timestamping.

🔹 How to participate: https://t.co/YxlPnGrV8F
🔹 Full details: https://t.co/mrNjRUcBzE

The final phase begins now. Let’s timestamp the future. ⏰😺

[pieverse @pieverse_io]

🚀 Phase 3 of the Pieverse x @BinanceWallet Booster Campaign is officially LIVE!

We’re excited to unveil the next step in our mission to bring trusted, timestamped value to Web3.

🎁 30,000,000 $PIEVERSE (3% of the total initial supply) will be distributed across 4 phases of this campaign. The reward pool for Phase 3 is 7,500,000 $PIEVERSE.

🗓️ Phase 3 begins today, October 13 at 12PM UTC.

💰 7.5M $PIEVERSE prize pool for Phase 3.
✅ Complete all tasks in each phase to qualify for the reward pool.
🔑 All users with a keyless wallet and sufficient Alpha Points are eligible.
🤖 No bots, no cheating. Only verified human actions count.

🔹 How to participate: https://t.co/18bbvxg78m
🔹 For full details: https://t.co/dg306e4f7J

Phase 3 begins now. See you on Pieverse. ⏰😺

[BAS @basdotio]

BAS Booster Program x @BinanceWallet — Season 3 Week 3 Kicks Off!

😁10.10, 13:00 （UTC+8） → 10.17, 13:00 （UTC+8）

😁Reward Pool: 50,000,000 (0.5%) $BAS

😁Eligibility: 61+ Alpha Points

This Week’s Tasks:

🫶Hold ≥ 3000+ BAS in past 7 days — share 12.5M BAS

🫶Buy ≥ 1000 BAS in past 7 days — share 12.5M BAS

🫶Binance keyless Wallet transactions ≥2 in the past 7 days — share 11.5M BAS

🫶Verify Your BSC Balance — share 11.5M BAS

Join via: Binance Wallet → Discover → Booster

Tutorial Guide:
https://t.co/dJIovfWV0h

Your Proof. Your BAS. Your Win.

[连翼 @lianyi520]

@rami_hashimi 0xdE776F4eaA7178c8060b9313F6399B599f794CAe

[连翼 @lianyi520]

@binancezh 能不能让我赢一次

[币安Binance华语 @binancezh]

用币安钱包，打BSC meme，享币安人生

📲移动端：所有交易免手续费，Alpha空投天天领
💻网页版：极致打狗体验，最低费率，最高返佣比例

不够BNB冲狗吗❓

点赞、关注、转发，抽100人，每人0.1 #BNB

https://t.co/GZZ5MZrSOB

[Reveel @r3vl_xyz]

🟩 Phase 4 $REVA Quests are live

More tasks, more rewards, more ways to stack $REVA

Here’s your mission log for this week 👇

[pieverse @pieverse_io]

🚨 Phase 2 of the Pieverse x @BinanceWallet Booster Campaign starts today!

Your mission for Phase 2:
✅ Complete quests and explore the Pieverse AI Calendar.
🎁 7.5M $PIEVERSE reward pool is up for grabs.
🔑 Log in to your Binance Wallet and click on the Booster banner to join.

🔹How to participate: https://t.co/6imyxHF4s0
🔹Additional details: https://t.co/jd1qN90eVI

Phase 2 begins at 9AM UTC. Don’t miss out. 🪙

[Reveel @r3vl_xyz]

https://t.co/uNFUEtwIqZ

[BAS @basdotio]

BAS Booster Campaign x @BinanceWallet — Season 2, Week 4 is LIVE!

- Sep 15, 21:00 （UTC+8） → Sep 22, 14:00 （UTC+8）
- Rewards Pool: 51,000,000 (0.51%) BAS Tokens
- Eligibility: 61+ Alpha Points

This week’s tasks:
- Share @Passport_BNB card on X
- Hold ≥ 3000 BAS in past 7 days — share 12.5M BAS
- Buy≥ 1000 BAS in past 7 days — share 12.5M BAS
- Verify Your BSC Balance — share 11.5M BAS
- Binance keyless Wallet transactions ≥2 in the past 7 days — share 11.5M BAS

Join via: Binance Wallet → Discover → Booster

Season 2 Week 4 Guide:
https://t.co/T6rua2zDY0

New Season. New Proof. Same Mission: Trust on BNB Chain.

[Astra Nova @Astra__Nova]

Entertainment is being rebuilt.
By players, creators, and AI.

Welcome to Astra Nova
The world's first AI Entertainment Ecosystem ✨

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🔸 Fueled by $RVV

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🧬 ARPG – UE5 + AI NPCs in a playable sci-fi epic
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🎯 BlackPass – SocialFi quests + loyalty rewards
⚔️ Deviants Fight Club – Telegram PvP casual game.

The era of passive entertainment is over.

Play. Build. Own the future.

🌐 Step Inside → https://t.co/4ZaVPINm4f

[Daejin @Daejinxyz]

Build. Launch. Monetize. 🕹️

Turn your community into an arcade — in seconds. ⚡

No code. AI-powered.
Welcome to https://t.co/LZsqRU1Uo3

🚨 250K+ have already joined the waitlist — don’t miss your chance!

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