LibDemCoffee

Please wake up and smell me. Providing #thetea in coffee form!

[LibDemCoffee @LibDemCoffee]

If this election goes well for us do I gloat because the party adopted the exact positioning I said would work, and it worked?

Or

Do I eat humble pie because I didn't think Ed could do it?

If we do badly then the reverse question applies!!!

It's quite the dilemma.

[LibDemCoffee @LibDemCoffee]

Over 65s, I love you very much but when a government does badly you really do need to vote against it.

This may be the best argument for the Lib Dem policy of legalising cannabis. It would do wonders for Tory voters willingness to change their vote based on the govt's record.

[Election Maps UK @ElectionMapsUK]

Projected GE2024 Result if Only Over-65's could vote:

CON: 364 - 38.0%
LAB: 238 - 29.9%
LDM: 21 - 10.0%
SNP: 3 - 2.1%
GRN: 2 - 3.1%
PLC: 2 - 0.5%
RFM: 0 - 15.9%
Others: 1 - 0.4%

Convervative Majority of 78.

[LibDemCoffee @LibDemCoffee]

@Charlotte_Rhea2 @RedfieldWilton The Tl;dr is that polling is quite good at predicting roughly the correct percentages of the vote.

Bad at predicting individual seats and then number of MPs won by each party.

Most people won't be polled.

[LibDemCoffee @LibDemCoffee]

@Charlotte_Rhea2 @RedfieldWilton it does mean that you only have a 1/4,663 chance of being polled in any individual one of these polls. So most people end up not getting asked, even over a lifetime.

It's mostly just random chance. I think I was in one once many years ago and never since.

[LibDemCoffee @LibDemCoffee]

This is the level of polling I said would be exciting, I stand by it. I know it's just one poll, etc. Etc. But this level is exciting.

[Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton]

Highest Lib Dem % since 2019 GE.

Lowest Labour % since 14 Aug (when Johnson was PM).

Westminster VI (7 May):

Labour 41% (-4)
Conservative 29% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 16% (+4)
Reform UK 5% (-2)
Green 4% (–)
SNP 3% (+1)
Other 1% (–)

Changes +/- 30 April

https://t.co/MRP1KXlyY2

[LibDemCoffee @LibDemCoffee]

Not an amazing start to the last day of Lib Dem internal elections. Watering down our view on rights while we fall in the polls.

Not feeling terribly proud of us today.

[LibDemCoffee @LibDemCoffee]

@slowbikeiain @ElectionMapsUK So we will pick up more seats on these numbers in a GE but far less than we should do. If we did more to reassure voters of the left we'd both poll higher and ultimately win more seats.

[LibDemCoffee @LibDemCoffee]

@slowbikeiain @ElectionMapsUK It's because the Tories coming to us over Labour thing is mostly a myth. We do often win by bringing some over but our more common strategy is to rally the anti-Tory vote in a blue constituency and then win over a small number of Conservatives in order to win.

[LibDemCoffee @LibDemCoffee]

Still not breaking out of our post 2012 polling slump? Very bad.

Winning 40ish MPs? very good!!

We do need to be more than a tactical vote for Labour voters in the south though.

[Election Maps UK @ElectionMapsUK]

Vote Share Projection:

LAB: 43% (+10)
CON: 28% (-17)
LDM: 13% (+1)

Labour winning a majority this large (172) on a 15% lead implies that anti-Tory voters are voting very tactically.

Thus the situation is even bleaker for the Tories than it first seems.

[LibDemCoffee @LibDemCoffee]

I'm sure voters will ultimately vote tactically and we'll do fine. However, for those of us who have, for years, pointed out that thinking of voters as switching neatly from Tory to LibDem rather than Labour because we're "in the middle" was absolute nonsense this is vindicating.

[Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton]

Labour leads by 13% in the Blue Wall.

Blue Wall Voting Intention (7-8 October):

Labour 41% (+20)
Conservative 28% (-22)
Liberal Democrat 24% (-3)
Green 4% (+3)
Reform UK 3% (New)
Other 1% (–)

Changes +/- 2019 General Election

https://t.co/VW5kBf68iV

[LibDemCoffee @LibDemCoffee]

@JamesBurgon @PaulHindley_ Ironically it's rather like the Chancellor's belief in tax cuts!

[LibDemCoffee @LibDemCoffee]

Well this is staggeringly bad for us.

[YouGov @YouGov]

Labour is also massively squeezing the Lib Dems: 50% of 2019 Lib Dem voters now intend to vote Labour, up from 27% at the start of the week

Just 30% of 2019 Lib Dem voters still intend to back the party

https://t.co/qjE87FPC0i

[LibDemCoffee @LibDemCoffee]

@SJRichmond89 @soclibforum I do follow SLF content but I admit I personally hadn't seen this particular graph before.

[LibDemCoffee @LibDemCoffee]

@Niaccurshi Especially as our brand is still tainted.

We need to step out of denial and admit that you're right, currently Labour are the more logical choice and we need to work hard to fix that problem.

[LibDemCoffee @LibDemCoffee]

@PaulHindley_ I think the problem is the leadership doesn't understand who "soft Tories" are. They're clearly currently going to a "nationalise everything" Labour party rather than Lib Dems!

[LibDemCoffee @LibDemCoffee]

It's another one where the Tory vote has collapsed and it's done us absolutely zero good.

We desperately need to fix the problem of our tainted brand with those voters who switched to Lab (Or Green).

Also: the LD + Green vote is still noticeably close to the pre-2010 LD vote.

[British Electoral Politics @electpoliticsuk]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 50% (+10)
CON: 20% (-8)
LDM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 8% (=)
SNP: 5% (-1)

Via @PeoplePolling, On 29 September,
Changes w/ 21 September.

[LibDemCoffee @LibDemCoffee]

Just in case anyone was wondering where our voters are and why we can't attract more Conservative voters by being more economically right wing!

[Tim Bale @ProfTimBale]

Wondering why the Conservatives seem to have lost so many voters lately? With a little help from polsci, the @FT's data-wizard, @jburnmurdoch, has one answer for you. https://t.co/3vgSpt0IfX

[LibDemCoffee @LibDemCoffee]

Good for the nation, no doubt.

For Lib Dems our concern is that the leadership still seem to believe, it total detail of all evidence, that we can win a bunch of seats by taking Tory votes.

If the Conservatives can go down to 21% and we also lose then that goal seems unlikely.

[Election Maps UK @ElectionMapsUK]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 54% (+9)
CON: 21% (-7)
LDM: 7% (-2)
GRN: 6% (-1)
RFM: 4% (+1)

Via @YouGov, 28-29 Sep.
Changes w/ 23-25 Sep.

THIRTY THREE POINT LEAD.