@QualityInvest5 2nd order effects. They aren't exposed to the credit risk, but the banks will be issuing less?
Unless your thesis is that the change never comes to fruition.
Oh hey.. it's me!
So if I am understanding correctly, the reasoning ASML deserves a higher multiple is because future cash flows are more durable/certain to grow given the quality of competitive advantage in their respective industry?
Or is this more a reversion to historical multiples?
While you do due diligence on the business and quality of so, the actions are being taken based on mean reversion which seems different than focusing on the business.
I don't disagree with you, or think what you're doing is wrong. My prior comment was just a genuine question into your thought process.
I enjoy your content and have learned a lot about adobe largely due to you.
@TacticzH Ebidta is not a good metric for a business that much opex/capex.. depreciation is a very real cost. The ev/ebidta should trade lower because the business has fundamentally changed in the last 10 years.
Green is gold price, blue is $DNG.TO
The discrepancy at the ~$4 range was really wide.
For good reason. Management diluted shareholders to pursue projects that may not pan out. Current operations in Peru have deteriorated.
In my opinion, these issues are likely temporary. The expansion risk lies on the execution, but it reduces the single country risk of the existing operations. If the company can successfully repeat the process built in Peru and set up the complex supply chain of artisanal miners across multiple countries, the stock is very cheap.
If the investments don't pan out, there is downside, but it's not a catastrophic blow up. I think much of that risk is already priced into the stock today.
Iolite Capital has a meaningful stake in the business and is pushing for change. There's risk here, if nothing changes, they will likely start selling and the stock does not have a lot of volume.