kevin lings

Economist

[kevin lings @lingskevin]

Fitch upgraded SA’s credit rating from BB- to BB, but the outlook is stable. Fitch acknowledged the progress on fiscal discipline and the introduction of PPPs, but makes the point that the average GDP growth for BB rated countries is 4%

[kevin lings @lingskevin]

US data shows strong labour market with 172 000 jobs created in May, above expectations. Previous month’s data revised higher, unemployment steady at 4.3%, wage growth slowed. US labour market has improved during past 3 months. Data will worry Fed given already high inflation

[kevin lings @lingskevin]

SA business confidence fell sharply in Q2 2026 after recording a welcome improvement over the preceding 6 months. SA’s policy reform agenda is struggling to gain momentum, while the higher fuel price is doing damage

[kevin lings @lingskevin]

SA petrol price to increase by R1.43/l in June while the diesel price will decline by between R3.24/l and R2.61/l. This includes the 50% claw back of the fuel levy subsidy. While not great news, at least there is a reduction in the diesel price, which hopefully continues in July

[kevin lings @lingskevin]

SA Reserve Bank hiked rates by 25bps to 7.00% as expected. Although the risk to SA economic growth is to the downside, the risk to inflation is to the upside. Some evidence of secondary inflation effects. Hawkish statement, suggesting further rate hikes are possible.

[kevin lings @lingskevin]

On Friday night Moody’s upgraded South Africa’s credit outlook from stable to positive. Key positives include improved fiscal discipline, and ongoing energy and logistics reforms. This is despite the negative impact of the recent fuel price increases.

[kevin lings @lingskevin]

SA inflation rose from 3.1% to 4.0% in line with expectations. Core inflation slightly higher than expected at 3.6%. Fuel price did most of the damage rising by 18.2% in the month, but food prices noticeably higher, Cost of hotels fell sharply, which helped. Rate hike expected

[kevin lings @lingskevin]

Politico is reporting that Trump is going to use his speech at 21h00 tonight to declare that the Iran war is winding down, all military objectives have been achieved and that others need to resolve the Hormuz problem

[kevin lings @lingskevin]

President Trump has said the US will leave Iran in two to three weeks. Impossible to know if that is a valid expectation.

[kevin lings @lingskevin]

SA Reserve Bank kept interest rates unchanged in line with expectations. Unanimous decision. SARB’s base case expectation appears somewhat optimistic, which highlights that the Bank is assuming the Iran conflict ends fairly soon and there is no lasting impact on the oil price

[kevin lings @lingskevin]

According to data from the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the Robotaxi programme in the US has about 9x the accident rate of human drivers. That is a lot higher than I would have expected.

[kevin lings @lingskevin]

Ten days ago a total of 137 ships went through the Strait of Hormuz including 73 oil tankers. Yesterday only 2 ships went through the Strait, one was a container ship and the other was a general cargo ship. The decline in shipping activity is massive

[kevin lings @lingskevin]

The daily under recovery on SA’s diesel price is up at 500c/l, while the under recovery on petrol is 266c/l. If those are the type of fuel price increases SA is going to experience in April then inflation will move sharply higher, undermining the chance of further rate cuts

[kevin lings @lingskevin]

SA consumer inflation a bit higher than market expectations in Jan at 3.5% despite a large decline in the fuel price. The upside surprise was partly due to a large increase in meat prices, which relates to the current foot and mouth disease. Meat inflation was measured at 13.5%

[kevin lings @lingskevin]

SA’s labour market data for Q4 2025, released today, shows that unemployment rate in Western Cape fell significantly further to 18.1%, while Gauteng is up at 33% and Eastern Cape surged to 42.5%. How the major cities are managed makes a big difference to people’s opportunities

[kevin lings @lingskevin]

President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Warsh served as a Fed Governor from 2006 to 2011. While Warsh has more recently supported cutting interest rates, he has been a long time critic of ultra low interest rates and the excessive use of QE

[kevin lings @lingskevin]

@BEEtycoon It is part of a well established pattern/trend

[kevin lings @lingskevin]

Interesting to see stark differences in economic development of Western Cape vs Gauteng. For example during first 11 months of 2025 value of building plans passed in Western Cape increased by R2.678 billion year on year vs a decline of R4.285 billion in Gauteng over same period

[kevin lings @lingskevin]

South Africa inflation averaged 3.2% in 2025. That is the lowest annual inflation rate in South Africa in 22 years. Impressive, and should allow for a further reduction in interest rates

[kevin lings @lingskevin]

South African retail sales better than expected in November 2025 growing by 3.5%y/y. The market was expecting growth of 2.7%y/y. This would suggest that Black Friday spending was relatively robust especially the purchases of household appliances and equipment as well as cosmetics