#ZAILGO
Zailgo价格下跌,想必大家心里满是惶恐 ,但诚实讲这个画面早在买入前就该有所心理准备。
The price of Zailgo has dropped, and I imagine many are feeling uneasy. However, to be honest, this situation should have been mentally prepared for before buying in.
简单整理这次阴跌的几个主要理由:
Here’s a quick summary of the main reasons for this downtrend:
1.创始人在DC提及关于这周内重新启动Prism平台的计划,在不明所以的谣传下变成了创始人要发Prism作为新币....
关于这个信息我已经和创始人了解了,他给了我比较含糊的表达,大概意思是他的信息表明会着重在重启Prism项目,并没有提及任何要发新币的隐喻,对于外面传的发币与否他都表示开放的态度。(顶级谜语人)
但我的解读是感觉不太会出现发新币的行为,具体理由在上一篇抄底解析的文章就提到了,好不容易在Zailgo完成了老鼠仓的分仓,这个时候发新币不就白费劲了。
The founder recently mentioned plans to restart the Prism platform this week in Discord. This has, unfortunately, been misinterpreted by rumors, turning into speculation that a new token under Prism will be launched.
I’ve already reached out to the founder for clarification, and while his response was somewhat vague, he indicated that his focus is on restarting the Prism project and didn’t mention anything hinting at the issuance of a new token. Regarding the rumors about token issuance, he stated he’s open to the idea but didn’t confirm anything (top-level cryptic messaging).
My personal interpretation is that it’s unlikely a new token will be issued. I’ve previously detailed my reasoning in the “Bottom Fishing Analysis” article. After completing the splitting of positions in Zailgo, issuing a new token at this stage would make all that effort pointless.
2.创始人的推特说第二幕游戏会在今年夏天开始,于是很多人觉得中间间隔太久会丢失热度所以选择抛售。这一部分我是可以理解的,但创始人在Discord里同样也提到了“游戏一直是进行的,只是会在特定的时间安排幕章用以推动剧情”。
再结合上一篇抄底解析的文章里所提的,个人投资这个项目是因为他灵活的利用悬疑叙事作为吸引市场注意力的方式,进而推出自己真正的应用产品。
想必大家不会单纯是来投资解谜游戏的吧...
所以其实解谜游戏的使命随着他推特2k粉到现在3w粉,在我看来已经实现了,至于夏天有没有要继续玩本来就不在我的考虑范畴,我比较期待的是Prism应用落地后的使用体验。
The founder’s Twitter announcement stated that the second chapter of the game will start this summer. Many worry that the long gap might cause a loss of momentum, leading some to sell off.
I can understand this concern. However, in Discord, the founder also mentioned that "the game is ongoing; the chapters are just timed to push the storyline forward."
Referring back to the “Bottom Fishing Analysis” article, my investment in this project is because of the founder's innovative use of suspenseful storytelling to capture market attention and eventually roll out real application products. Surely, you’re not just here to invest in a puzzle-solving game, right?
In my view, the game’s mission has been accomplished, growing the founder’s Twitter following from 2K to 30K. Whether the game continues this summer was never part of my consideration. What I’m more excited about is the usability and experience of Prism once it launches.
3.今天的大型戏剧“Prism发币给shaw,shaw转头卖了Prism的币买入hyper,于是Prism决定加入Swarms的生态”。而在这个过程中!没错,又有我们Zailgo的画面。创始人因为不满Prism的代币与自己的项目同名,于是发了一个抱怨性质的推特还tag了swarms官方。又又又被解读成了Zailgo站队Shaw。先不说这个站队的理由是否牵强,但Ai16z和Swarms都是各自很强的生态,无论站队这其中的任何一方,如果站队成功了都应该是利好才对吧...怎么现在Swarm涨起来了大家都成Swarm信徒了,20m的时候你们可是把Shaw的fud奉为圣经的......
The latest drama is a convoluted one: "Prism issued tokens to Shaw, who then sold Prism tokens to buy into Hyper. As a result, Prism decided to join the Swarms ecosystem."
Somewhere in this process—yes, Zailgo came into the picture again. The founder, unhappy that Prism tokens share the same name as his project, tweeted a complaint and tagged the Swarms official account. This has now been interpreted as Zailgo siding with Shaw.
Let’s set aside how tenuous this reasoning is for now. Both Ai16z and Swarms are strong ecosystems in their own right. Aligning with either one should be seen as a positive, right? Yet, as Swarms’ price surged, everyone became a Swarms believer. But back when Swarms was at $20M, wasn’t Shaw’s fud treated as gospel?
总而言之,我认为这几天的暴跌很大程度上都来自于散户对于利空消息的臆想。本质原因是太久没有拉盘,且项目在第一幕解谜游戏结束后的热度有所下跌。但早在写关于Zailgo的第一篇买入逻辑的文章时我就提到了,Zailgo和Swarms的庄高度重合,而Swarms的庄洗盘手段极度残忍。且中途所有来询问我关于Zailgo走向的留言我的回复都是“过程可能十分磨人,留你觉得舒服的底仓保持高度观察就好。”
I believe the recent crash is largely driven by retail investors’ imagined negative news. The core issue is that it’s been too long without a price surge, and the project has lost some momentum after the first chapter of the narrative game concluded.
However, as I mentioned in my first article analyzing the logic behind buying Zailgo, the overlap between Zailgo and Swarms’ major holders is high, and Swarms’ holders have extremely ruthless wash-trading tactics. Throughout this process, I’ve consistently replied to questions about Zailgo’s trajectory with:
“The process may be extremely grueling; leave a comfortable amount in your base position and stay highly observant.”
简单讲,我认为Zailgo的基本面在我看来是完全没变的,拿miles换头像的利空时间对标Swarms发新币的利空事件,现在就是在走最难熬的后续信任破裂的阴跌阶段。我没有办法肯定预测Zailgo后续的走势能像Swarms一样实现黑马逆袭,我只是认为现在对于Zailgo的莫名fud情绪是不客观的,请回忆下Swarms 20m和500m时大家的不同评价,在不同的评价背后基本面是否有发生一点改变。呼吁大家在投资项目前认真思考,到底是投资k线还是投资基本面,不然涨起来的项目永远有角度,跌下来的项目永远像诈骗,于是陷入无尽的追涨杀跌。
Simply put, I believe Zailgo’s fundamentals remain unchanged. If you compare this situation to Swarms’ negative news when they launched a new token, what we’re seeing now is just the tough phase of a prolonged trust crisis. While I can’t guarantee that Zailgo will follow Swarms’ trajectory and stage a dark horse comeback, I do think the current fud surrounding Zailgo is not objective. Please think back to the vastly different evaluations of Swarms when it was at $20M versus $500M—did the fundamentals change in any way?
I urge everyone to seriously reflect on whether you’re investing in the price chart or the fundamentals. Otherwise, successful projects will always seem justified, and declining ones will always look like scams—trapping you in endless cycles of chasing the pump and panic-selling.
当前阶段最好的决策还是建议将仓位调整为自己能接受的范围,时刻关注Prism的应用进程,结合Prism的使用体验和功能测试才能给予合理预期。
At this stage, the best decision would be to adjust your position to a level you’re comfortable with and keep a close eye on the progress of Prism’s application. Only by testing and experiencing Prism’s functionality can we form reasonable expectations.