LiqTide

Where is the smart money moving next?

[LiqTide @liqtide]

1/ Every cycle, the same sequence: liquidity moves first. Price follows. The narrative arrives last — when it's too late to matter.

We built a war room that watches the first step.

This is LiqTide. 🧵

[LiqTide @liqtide]

Treasury drains used to hit a buffer before they hit you.

That buffer was the RRP. Today it holds $2.2B. At that level, every TGA rebuild pulls straight from bank reserves — the pool that funds risk.

The shock absorber is off the car.

https://t.co/Bq8t1fJjeW

[LiqTide @liqtide]

🌊 THE LIQTIDE SCORE™: 44/100 — NO CLEAR FLOW

The US Treasury injected $100.9B into the system this week.

Chop eats accounts. The break, when it comes, starts as a flow — not a candle.

https://t.co/Bq8t1fJjeW

[LiqTide @liqtide]

Everyone camps on FOMC. Four Mondays a year, Treasury matters more.

QRA — first Monday of Feb/May/Aug/Nov, 3 PM ET: the estimate of how much cash next quarter's borrowing will pull out of markets.

Four dates. Almost nobody watches.

https://t.co/Bq8t1fJjeW

[LiqTide @liqtide]

Today's candle isn't trading today's money.

Our working model: liquidity enters the system ~10 weeks before it reaches risk assets. The lead wanders across cycles — context, not clockwork.

Price is the last stop on the pipe.

https://t.co/Bq8t1fJR4u

[LiqTide @liqtide]

Fear & Greed and the LiqTide Score share a 0-100 scale and watch different worlds.

One reads the mood. The other counts money entering or leaving the system. Now: crowd 22, money 44.

When they split, ask which one settles trades.

https://t.co/Bq8t1fJjeW

[LiqTide @liqtide]

4/ THE READ

LiqTide Score: 44 — NO CLEAR FLOW.

Slack water. The dollar breaks the tie — watch it into next week.

New brief every day at the US open.

The map sees it first → https://t.co/Bq8t1fJjeW

[LiqTide @liqtide]

📡 THE WEEK IN LIQUIDITY — #04
29 JUN – 05 JUL 2026

Trend rising.

Where the money actually moved this week — thread. 🧵

[LiqTide @liqtide]

3/ THE GLOBAL BACKDROP

Broad dollar: 120.9 (+1.4% 1m)
Gold: $4,042
AI complex (QQQ): 555

A strong dollar is a tax on every risk asset on earth.

[LiqTide @liqtide]

🌊 THE LIQTIDE SCORE™: 44/100 — NO CLEAR FLOW (▲ was 42)

The US Treasury injected $100.9B this week. Tether & Circle burned $2.0B in 7 days. Dry powder is leaving the theater.

https://t.co/Bq8t1fJjeW

[LiqTide @liqtide]

Rising BTC dominance is often defense, not a rally.

Dominance = BTC's share of total crypto cap. When liquidity tightens, money retreats up the quality curve — alts bleed into BTC first. Now 55.7%.

A fire drill can look like a bid.

https://t.co/Bq8t1fJR4u

[LiqTide @liqtide]

The heaviest bid in bitcoin has never read a whitepaper.

Spot ETF desks buy and sell coin mechanically to match each day's creations and redemptions — and the flows are public. 5-day net: -$971M.

Follow the desk, not the discourse.

https://t.co/Bq8t1fJjeW

[LiqTide @liqtide]

A stablecoin chart is a flat line at $1. The supply is the chart almost nobody pulls up.

Mints load dry powder into crypto; burns are money leaving entirely. A flow, not a price. 7-day change: -$3.1B.

Watch the pile, not the peg.

https://t.co/Bq8t1fJR4u

[LiqTide @liqtide]

🌊 THE LIQTIDE SCORE™: 42/100 — NO CLEAR FLOW

The US Treasury injected $100.9B. Stablecoin fleet shrank $3.1B in 7 days. Spot BTC ETFs bled $971M over 5 sessions. Conflicting flows define the score.

https://t.co/Bq8t1fJjeW

[LiqTide @liqtide]

Markets' biggest cash drain is not a fund. It is the government's checking account.

When the Treasury refills its war chest, cash leaves markets and parks at the Fed. Now $807.4B — rising = draining.

Nobody trades the TGA. It trades them.

https://t.co/Bq8t1fJjeW

[LiqTide @liqtide]

That is exactly why we built LiqTide for! So you can track global liquidity with ease.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

The NASDAQ is 97.5% correlated to total global liquidity.

It has almost nothing to do with earnings or how good the companies are, and everything to do with how much money the world's central banks are printing.

The small slice that liquidity doesn't explain is the NASDAQ's own adoption curve sitting on top.

This is why everyone keeps saying equities are expensive. They're using a measure that stopped working the moment we started debasing currency. A high valuation doesn't really tell you a company is doing well anymore, it tells you how much money has been printed.

This is the heart of my Everything Code framework. Once you understand that liquidity is the key driver of all asset prices, the market stops behaving like a mystery and starts running like clockwork.

[LiqTide @liqtide]

@YarenAybar thank you!

[LiqTide @liqtide]

⚠️ THE TIDE HAS TURNED — 03 JUL 2026

LiqTide Score 34 → 42: DRY SEASON → NO CLEAR FLOW.

Money is coming back in. Rising liquidity has historically carried risk assets — seeing it early is the whole edge.

Live map → https://t.co/Bq8t1fJjeW

[LiqTide @liqtide]

🌊 THE LIQTIDE SCORE™: 42/100 — NO CLEAR FLOW (▲ was 34)

The US Treasury injected $94.5B into the system this week.

Chop eats accounts. The break, when it comes, starts as a flow — not a candle.

https://t.co/Bq8t1fJjeW