Olivia
Online
❤️elphamale
@lithiumanalysis
Victorian based s-curve investor, #Lithium analyst & occasional commentator.
All comments & analysis IMO, please DYOR.
Australia
Joined April 2019
640 Following
2.9K Followers
1.2K Posts
#RDC ExpoBeton_11, j’ai pris part à ces assises consacrées aux infrastructures et développement qui s'est tenue dans la ville de Kalemie tout en prônant le projet de Manono Lithium qui est un projet qui accompagne la vision du chef de l'état
@MinMinesRDC @MinITP_RDC @cominiereSA @PrimatureRDC @Presidence_RDC @JeanBamanisa
#manono #mines #infrastructures #cominiere #Expobeton
#Lithium $GLN
I would encourage every investor 2 take the time 2 view 👇 video in its entirety.
@GalanLithium are ~1 in 300 junior explorers historically that ever make it to the production stage. Job well done & the best part is they will B highly profitable & soon.☑️ #Rerate 📈
.@GalanLithium's pitch is simple: don’t build the whole carbonate complex first. Produce chloride, generate cash flow, scale later.
HMW is commissioned, funded to production, and has a buyer.
JP Vargas and Ross Dinsdale unpack the milestone, offtake and next steps. $GLN
📺: https://t.co/9ScfdNhe64
Thought4 the day:
Patience is not only a virtue in the case of @AvzMinerals. A rising #Supercycle #Lithium #Tin tide lifts all🛳️2🦣heights.📈
Structural deficits span every time horizon, a base platform4 $AVZ 2extract max. value4 its s/holders. Patience is our dear friend🫂MTC♠️
🚨 URGENT #Manono_lithium 🇨🇩🇦🇺
C'est suite à la demande de $AVZ que le tribunal (CIRDI) a levé les mesures provisoires.
Kiki #Kienge
Ce qui vient de se passer change complètement la lecture du dossier du gisement du lithium de Manono.
Contrairement à ce que beaucoup pensent, la levée des mesures provisoires du CIRDI intervient à la demande même de #AVZ Minerals.
Chronologie clé :
- 24 mars 2026 : AVZ demande la suspension de la procédure
- 18 avril 2026 : AVZ dépose une demande liée aux mesures provisoires
- 23 avril 2026 : ordonnance n°7 du tribunal
- 23 avril 2026 : suspension de la procédure jusqu’au 3 juillet 2026, conformément à l’accord des parties (AVZ / République démocratique du Congo)
Ce que ça veut dire
On n’est plus dans un affrontement pur.
On est entré dans une phase de négociation active.
Quand une entreprise demande elle-même :
- la suspension de la procédure,
- et accepte la levée de protections juridiques,
ce n’est jamais un hasard.
Lecture stratégique
AVZ est probablement en train de :
- ouvrir la porte à un deal structuré,
- éviter une escalade juridique longue et incertaine,
- sécuriser une sortie intelligente… ou une entrée réorganisée.
Le cœur du jeu
La question n’est plus :
AVZ va-t-elle gagner le procès ?
Mais plutôt :
AVZ est-elle en train de négocier la valeur de sa position dans Manono ?
Pourquoi “conformément à l’accord des parties” est clé
Cette phrase est la plus importante.
Elle signifie :
- qu’il y a dialogue direct entre AVZ et la RDC,
- que les deux parties ont un intérêt à calmer le jeu,
- et surtout qu’un terrain d’entente est en construction.
Oui, c’est très probablement une stratégie de négociation.
AVZ a compris trois choses :
- récupérer 100 % du projet est devenu peu réaliste
- le temps joue contre elle
- sa meilleure carte aujourd’hui et le levier juridique comme outil de deal
En suspendant la procédure, elle transforme :
un conflit en négociation commerciale
En levant les mesures provisoires, elle envoie un signal :
“On est prêt à discuter sérieusement.”
Ce n’est pas un recul.
C’est potentiellement le moment le plus stratégique du dossier.
AVZ ne cherche peut-être plus à gagner seule…
Elle cherche à ne pas perdre intelligemment et à monétiser sa position au maximum.
Et dans ce type de guerre économique,
ceux qui savent négocier au bon moment sont souvent les vrais gagnants.
@MinMinesRDC @KoBold_Metals @Manonolithium @LouisWKabamba @Presidence_RDC @USAauCongo @US_SrAdvisorAF @AvzMinerals @ChrisKitungwa @portefeuille_cd
Who to follow
Money of Mine 
@moneyofminepod
Mining news, uncensored
📧 Send all Word on the Decline to [email protected]
Joe ⚡️🔋 🚙
@joe_mbaya
🔋 Pioneering fast-charging battery technology with 🇨🇩
⚡ Sustainable energy solutions for a global market with locally sourced materials
condino.bsky.social 🇪🇺🇩🇪🇬🇷🇳🇴🇺🇦🇮🇱🦦
@ConDino007
Global European, retired lawyer, pol., econ. & legal affairs consulting @European Union. No financial advice 👨🏼🍳⛵️📸 -✌🏼😷 Foloten, Norge
Greetings $AVZ shareholders.
Ignore the noise, we R getting close C👇
&👏Nigel & co. 4holding firm on 'FAIR VALUE'✅
Make no mistake 🇺🇸 wants Manono BUT this can only work via a cashed up US PRODUCER
eg. @AlbemarleCorp or a 🇺🇸🌍JV 🧑🤝🧑with an experienced western miner eg. @RioTinto
In a White House meeting US officials urged an Australian mining exec to sell his firm’s interest in a Congo lithium project to a US company: A behind-the-scenes look at the Trump administration's critical-mineral deal-brokering @JoeDeaux @SheridanAsia https://t.co/7jfXa07nSQ
$AVZ
@AugustCohen4🤡
Kobold is a VC-backed EXPLORATION co. that over 8yrs has raised ~$1.2B which has already been spent/committed via its Portfolio of 60 projects🌎
They DO NOT have plenty of💰& R completely ill-equipped to produce #Lithium
i.e. UR WRONG again so please STOP🛑!!
To be clear, KoBold has plenty of money and it's offers to AVZ at this point have been what they are legally required to be under Australian law - "fair value" (not "commercial terms").
I would remind my AVZ friends on X that Nigel & Co must consider and disclose any such offer by KoBold per Australian securities law and failure to do so OR to turn down an offer of "fair value" could expose it to either more lawsuits by the authorities or it's current shareholders.
Merry Xmas @AvzMinerals & $AVZ holders🎄
Since👇post the value of RD's M&I resources & reserves have🚀
SC6 price has > 2x & valuations4 #Lithium deposits🆙2-4x w/likely higher vals. in '26 & beyond.
Selling RD in a🚀#Li market =🦣💰🐄so OK 2wait 4a SALE w/🆕normal 'fair value'📎.
$AVZ
No ML? No probs, all part of the negotations w/#RDC & pot. buyers. Otherwise🆙2 US$10B compo via ICC+ICSID.✅
0⃣Infra/roads/rail? BS‼️CanB done. eg.Kamoa Copper
DRC Country Risk Prem.? ~9% C👇
+ Sector risk(8-16%) =17-25% total max.
eg; US$9.5B val. less 17-25% =US$2-2.20p/s
📢Shareholder alert
'Fair value' for $AVZ's 75% owned #Manono🦣
has just gone🆙according to @jpmorgan.
With @KoBold_Metals framework agreement due to expire soon, they'd want to get their skates on as #Lithium/time no longer on their side.🚀
@AvzMinerals Let the bidding begin!🤑
🚨 #LithiumAlert! J.P. Morgan just flipped bullish on #Lithium 🔋
🔋 J.P. Morgan flips bullish from surplus to multi-year deficit 2025-2030! 😳⚡
ESS demand exploding: +50% in 2025 & +43% in 2026, taking 36% of total demand by 2030! 💥
💰 Prices upgraded but still very conservative:
• Spodumene ��� $1,100–1,300/t 📈 (likely way higher!)
🌍 Supply tight! Miners hold back until >$1,500/t. 🌊 Argentina’s Lake Resources Kachi project is a bright spot in the report for sustainable brine supply! 🔋
🤔 With EVs & ESS booming, deficits could blow past JPM’s -114 kt (2028) & -70 kt (2030) → prices may skyrocket beyond $1,500/t! ⏳💥 to price range of $2,000-$2,500
⚡ #LithiumBoom is ON! Battery metal mania incoming 🔋💎
#EnergyTransition #EVs #BatteryMetals #CleanTech #CriticalMinerals #ASX #Pilbara #Kachi #Minerals #Commodities #ESS #Investing $LKE $LLKKF #ALB #SQM #PLS #ELV #A11
#Argentina #USA
📢Franck Fwamba appointed Project Manager for the #RDC Minister of Mines, Louis Watum!
Congratulations @FranckFwamba, may your in depth knowledge of the $AVZ file help guide the 🆕MoM in denouncing the actions of #Cominiere & reinstating PR13359 to its rightful owner #Dathcom.🙏
$AVZ
No ML? No probs, all part of the negotations w/#RDC & pot. buyers. Otherwise🆙2 US$10B compo via ICC+ICSID.✅
0⃣Infra/roads/rail? BS‼️CanB done. eg.Kamoa Copper
DRC Country Risk Prem.? ~9% C👇
+ Sector risk(8-16%) =17-25% total max.
eg; US$9.5B val. less 17-25% =US$2-2.20p/s
$AVZ The problem with Mick's mansion analogy is that he believes there r similar Manonos elsewhere.
But we know that there's NO other #Lithium HR deposit that is of similar SCALE+GRADE.🦣
Manono = FREAK OF NATURE & should B valued as such by purchaser less std. country risk disc.
@emil_jens Unfortunately people see just see the asset. But people are comparing the same ‘Mansion’ in double bay vs the exact same build in the suburbs. Might be a similar build but the location is vastly different and will ultimately be a different price.
$AVZ
'One of Massad Boulos’ primary missions will B2 facilitate the recovery and resale of a contested #lithium project, currently in the sights of mining giant Rio Tinto.'
'The KoBold-Rio Tinto Partnership: A Strategic Alliance.'
🤔US$4B (Rio)+$2B (KoB) ?
https://t.co/FI27GFAwzf
"KoBold, Rio Tinto, and the DRC: Trump's Special Envoy Massad Boulos on a Mission to Broker a Lithium Mining Deal in Manono" - https://t.co/UcaFdTqVxN
$AVZ #Manono #KoboldMetals #RioTinto #MassadBoulos #DRC
" $AVZ is in bilateral talks with the U.S, authorities to have its license reinstated in its ENTIRETY."
i.e. @AvzMinerals seeking original PR13359 (north & south) to be reinstated.✅
Sell Roche Dure 2 western co.
#Zijin is welcome 2purchase CDL (💎of the north) for a fair price.
$AVZ
A$2-2.70 p/share = MINIMUM compensation for Roche Dure, the worlds largest #Lithium #spodumene deposit.
Still a bargain4 @RioTinto @KoBold_Metals but anything less is predatory & quite frankly insulting.
Looking forward2 ICC&ICSID finale📢
No substitutes 4 🦣GRADE & SCALE🥇
@AugustCohen4 $AVZ 7.2B to 9.5B AUD is roughly $2.05 to $2.70 per share AUD, not $1-1.70 as you mentioned.
$2-2.70 a share is a range quite fair to shareholders imo while still being a somewhat of a bargain for the buyer given the resource
@AugustCohen4 @PaulKagame @AugustCohen are you certain that those you publicly share your hatred for are the real bad guys?
I’d question who you have been receiving your intelligence from?
I’d have war criminal #Netanyahu & pure evil #Fauci well ahead of @PaulKagame, #Gaddafi, no nukes #Saddam & #Putin.
$AVZ investors big picture.🖼️
CATL's prospectus SPEAKS VOLUMES.📢
Beyond 13TWh (11x current) 🌎demand by 2050!🚀
Explains CATL's JV CATH renewed support for @AvzMinerals to bring its 75% owned Manono #Lithium project into production ASAP.
Thanks2 @sparkes_dwayne for his X summary
Haven’t really seen anyone’s take on CATL’s prospectus recently released (they are listing in Hong Kong), so thought I might give my quick thoughts on it!
A lot can be gleamed from CATL’s prospectus. Firstly, acknowledgement by the company that the profit margins have increased partly thanks to a reduction in LCE price.
Secondly, CATL’s growth estimates are enormous. The ESS estimates in particular are well above most analyst’s expectations. They have it at 300 GWh for 2024, 481GWh for 2025 & 1400 GWh for 2030…
Let’s convert these numbers GWh to LCE tonnes to make it easier to understand and compare to demand tables.
1kWh = 0.75~0.8kg of LCE. 0.9kg of LCE per 1kWh used to be the number that analysts adopted, but batteries have become more efficient with time. I've adopted 0.75kg off my latest data, but if anyone has a better number, please let me know.
1GWh = 1,000,000 kWh.
2025 – (481GWh * 1,000,000) *0.75kg = 360kt of LCE.
2030 - (1400GWh * 1,000,000) * 0.75kg = 1.05Mt of LCE.
Compare this to the ESS numbers presented by UBS in 2024 for example (below screenshot). They had for 213kt of LCE 2025 and for 517kt of LCE 2030. So CATL’s numbers are almost double. That’s a difference of 12~13 x the yearly output from a mine such as Kathleen Valley to put it into perspective. This is just ESS.
Another section of the prospectus that jumped out are the emerging applications. 390 GWh for this section by 2030.
390GWh x 0.75 = 292.5kt of LCE.
~3.5x greater than the 80 kt LCE UBS had listed for their "other Li-Ion demand" section. I’m not even going to bother doing the conversions on the 13 Twh by 2050 as it paints its own picture.
I think the above suggests the growth of lithium is exponential. I couldn’t tell you a commodity that has grown at this rate (and is expected to grow). Can’t deny CATL is a fantastic company that is leading the way in battery tech. They do want to suppress the lithium price however and that makes sense as they are the world’s largest consumer of the stuff. I just don't see how it doesn't cause more harm than good and will lead to an explosion in lithium price (more detail on this on my other posts). Thanks for reading.
$AVZ file📂
Cases of #Zijin violations⚠️cont. to be heard around the world.
Latest case: Argentina 🇦🇷left unimpressed!
When will @Presidence_RDC @SuminwaJudith @kizpaka @ConstantMutamba @ChrisKitungwa et al realise that their struggling #RDC🇨🇩 is better without these tyrants?👿
$AVZ the truth continued..
But as we know, @CelestinKibeya & his delusions of grandeur aided by evil #Zijin & certain Govt. officials #corruption had other ideas.
The truth: If the #RDC 🇨🇩 had followed their own mining code & awarded PR13359 to $AVZ #Dathcom in ‘22 after extensive studies, legitimate funding & Favourable Technical Opinion (FTO), then by law the champions @cominiereSA would in fact own 0% of ‘13359’ today.
From the $AVZ file. 📂
Funniest thing I’ve heard in a while👇👇
Comedy gold🏅from @cominiereSA makin’ me smile🙂
What a whopping pile 💩
Ready for it??
‘13359 is completely Cominière’😂
Let not truth get in the way of this astonishing one liner
(gonna frame this one boys)🤭
From the $AVZ file. 📂
Funniest thing I’ve heard in a while👇👇
Comedy gold🏅from @cominiereSA makin’ me smile🙂
What a whopping pile 💩
Ready for it??
‘13359 is completely Cominière’😂
Let not truth get in the way of this astonishing one liner
(gonna frame this one boys)🤭
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