Kena Hack

[Bagus P. Perdana @BagusPerdana_]

Cacat di Fiskal, Moneter yang Mundur

"Surely could miss, I mercy shall follow I
On the days of my life
Love that like to the fullest, oh, sweet music"

-Aku Bisa, Namoy Budaya, Weaken Amore

[Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy @Macrobysunil]

OIL ABOVE $120 WILL UNLEASH AN ENORMOUS SUPPLY OF GOVERNMENT BONDS.

Imagine oil suddenly moves to $120–$130.

Petrol prices rise.
Transport costs explode.
Food inflation returns.
Electricity, manufacturing and logistics become more expensive.
The public feels the pain immediately, and governments panic.
They cannot allow the full oil shock to directly hit households. It is politically impossible.
So they will announce fuel subsidies, tax relief, cash support, price caps and compensation packages.

People will believe the government has protected them.

But the pain was not removed.

It was simply transferred from the consumer’s pocket to the government’s balance sheet.

And governments are not going to cut welfare, defence, infrastructure or existing spending to pay for it.

They will borrow.

That means an enormous new wave of government bond issuance hitting the market while inflation is already moving higher.

This is the exact opposite of COVID.

During COVID, governments printed and borrowed money to stimulate collapsed demand.

This time, they will print and borrow money to protect individuals from the financial pain created by a supply shock.

That is far more dangerous.

More spending cannot produce more oil.

It will only increase deficits, weaken currencies and force bond markets to absorb even more sovereign debt.

Oil rises.
Governments subsidize.
Deficits explode.
Bond supply surges.
Long-term yields jump.

And once markets understand that governments are monetizing the pain of scarce commodities, gold will not react slowly.

Gold will move violently upward.

Because at that point, the market is no longer pricing only an oil shortage.
It is pricing the destruction of confidence in government bonds, fiat currencies and the ability of policymakers to control inflation.

[Kena Hack @littletorto]

@valenttt____ @ecommurz Korea yg bursanya naik segitu aja foreign YTD keluar banyak. Pake uang leverage kah itu semua?

[Kena Hack @littletorto]

Apa 18.440 bottom target penurunam rupiah?

18.440
1+8, 4+4
9+8 = 17
1+7= 8

Pasti 08 suka

[Kena Hack @littletorto]

@txtdaritaxpayer Berarti bottomnya middle class kena sampe impact ke pendapatan lower class, baru mau berbenah 😂😂

[Kena Hack @littletorto]

@steve_hanke Yet, no variable to measure government competence to explain current situation.

[Kena Hack @littletorto]

@yusrinasofia ih ada yg kangen ni kayanya haha :p

[Kena Hack @littletorto]

@yusrinasofia dededdsss :D

[Kena Hack @littletorto]

Good luck for today @yusrinasofia :)

[Kena Hack @littletorto]

@yusrinasofia hello there :)

[Kena Hack @littletorto]

@stephannie_s @yusrinasofia klo lo yg minta sih bayar phy hahaha :p

[Kena Hack @littletorto]

@IK_Ikko 7,499 ko. Tp klo beli pas launching ada diskon klo pake bca hehe.

[Kena Hack @littletorto]

@claraayunp pas launching minggu depan clar pake bca diskonnya lumayan hehe.

[Kena Hack @littletorto]

@yusrinasofia kan biar bagus buat foto kamu haha.

[Kena Hack @littletorto]

@mitaputri ada tarifnya sist, 100 ribu sekilo haha.

[Kena Hack @littletorto]

@ridwanrahmanto gw aja lagi usaha ni biar dpt diskon haha.

[Kena Hack @littletorto]

@mitaputri namanya juga ikhtiar. Ngejar setoran ni sebelom training haha.

[Kena Hack @littletorto]

@yusrinasofia liat dong pacalku :*

[Kena Hack @littletorto]

@aprilliaef ini gw aja lagi berjuang biar dapet diskonan pril hahaha.

[Kena Hack @littletorto]

@Samsung_ID 2 screens, same time? Hell yeah! #GalaxyNote2 http://t.co/gFKrkIs6