i love writing. i never let agents write for me. whether it's docs, or tweets, or shitposts, or even prompts (okay maybe that one's harder as agents manage other agents)
there's a simple reason for that: i still strongly believe that writing is thinking. it's a skill i hope to never give up. it's also important to me that whatever i say is always authentic, mistakes and all. my favorite posts are the ones that i just full send without any editing
i suspect it also helps with prompting. being able to clearly express what i want, and knowing the vocabulary i need to be able to direct my agents does seem to make for more effective usage of agents. in the same way that engineers have an advantage when we prompt agents to write code, because we are intimately familiar with the words that make up the discipline
knowing the right word incantations to get an agent to produce a desired goal almost feels like spellcasting. as models get more capable, and that input box looks more and more like a magic box that can output anything, words become the interface between you and the genie
there may come a time when we give up the keyboard in exchange for brain-computer interfaces. but until then, i'm writing every word.
A few questions on this.
Did humanity appoint you as its representative?
Do you represent the values of all humanity, across cultures and societies? Or this is narrow values of part of SF only?
Is splitting the world into “us” and “them,” labeling “them” authoritarian, then asking for international cooperation a sensible opening to negotiations?
Can governments recruit enough frontier talent to independently judge the labs they regulate?
Will they even understand this complex subject?
Do a few separate incidents justify an industry-wide slowdown, without showing why narrower remedies would fail?
Will countries accept rules explicitly designed to preserve another bloc’s technological superiority?
Will complex certification requirements help newcomers compete, or rather protect incumbents?
Does slowing model development also slow your revenue growth, market expansion or move into vertical services?
Will restrictions on public access come with equivalent restrictions on your own commercial use of powerful internal models?
What commercial sacrifices have your board and investors approved?
Do your IPO forecasts reflect those sacrifices?
Will you pace your fundraising and IPO too?
Does concern about safety eliminate commercial self-interest?
Some answers seem obvious. The others deserve a public answer.
Still “0” following. Do you care what others think or you prefer to discuss this with people that agree with you?
I am turning MAX BULLISH right now. Just like a river boat gambler holding his last chips I’m looking at the landscape and thinking fuck man we are in the fast take off stage right now.
I want to put it all max levered long on the high beta names and walk off into the orange glow of the sun. My bullishness has absolutely nothing to do with the math problems that are being solved most of them don’t matter that much.
But it’s more the realization that every AI lab just had. They all woke up and said wait a minute what are we doing selling $200 a month subscriptions to idiots who are making slop apps and nonsense substack articles when we can just subsidize a few super geniuses by giving them real compute to work on an important problem.
No one really cares about navier stokes besides some CFD simulation cycles. But what if we put these compute resources on real valuable problems? That opens up a whole new world. The bull case for AI has always been to me discovering new drugs or even verifying they work/don’t work reliably… I was thinking way way wayyyy too small.
There are hundreds of problems in engineering that if you got the experts in the room with real compute and even if they made a marginal improvement it would be worth hundreds of billions to the economy. Imagine we can build a steep slope device at 0.3V that’s worth like several generations of lithography nodes, or we can design a sub 100 femtojoul/bit optical IO and cut datacenter power by 40%, or even something as simple as more energy efficient molecular separation to replace distillation which is like 15% of all industrial energy use.
This is the real shit guys. The labs are realizing quickly this is the REAL frontier this is the final land grab. Open source can never compete here because they don’t have the capital and resources this plays right into the labs hands. They can’t give everyone a 10,000 agent swarm but they definitely can give it to Exxon mobile and charge them $50M dollars for it if it means they find more oil or Dow Chemical to create a new kind of super glue or to Moderna to computationally create different mRNA therapies… the list goes on and on.
A big reason why I never cared much for AI is despite all the normies going googoo Gaga over it is that literally they don’t have any clue what to do with it. Like if you were mediocre before AI you are mediocre after it, nothing changed u just got more skills that you don’t know how to use and you have no imagination or intuition. It’s the same reason why education is a waste on the majority of the population because let’s be real most of you aren’t going to be deriving differential equations or using epistemological concepts on your day job.
But you give this kinda compute and unfettered AI in the hands of people who are world class. They will cook. It’s the reason why Deepmind has a Nobel prize and no other lab does because deepmind actually hired or worked with the top biochemists and biophysicists to develop alphafold.
AI alone isn’t going to discover anything. Don’t fool yourself and grow up already if you still think AI is going to just figure out large scale nuclear fusion on its own then you are simply lost in the sauce at this point and are beyond saving. The pragmatic answer has always been use the AI to automate the busy work and keep the human experts for the actually thoughtfulness and intuition.
I think the AI labs will wake up now and realize selling coding tokens and image models to normies to make Disney characters isn’t the best business in the long run. Actually using the compute for real serious innovation is and it’s really easy to monetize this upfront.
I expect AI labs to stop looking like API companies and start looking like real research labs now. Thank god.
Will Huawei catch up to Nvidia by 2030? Almost certainly not.
We analyzed Huawei’s chip roadmap and supply chain, from the Ascend 950 to its 3D-stacking bet and domestic HBM supply. Our estimate: Huawei will produce less than 4% of Nvidia's AI compute in 2026. Relying on domestic HBM alone, that share could fall to just 1% by 2028. 🧵
연구로 밝혀진 머리 좋아지는 습관
1. 키보드 대신 손으로 메모하는 것 (프린스턴대)
2. 점심 먹고 26분 낮잠 자는 것 (NASA)
3. 외국어 하나 더 배우는 것 (요크대)
4. 막힐 때 앉아 있지 말고 걷는 것 (스탠퍼드)
5. 공원이나 숲을 걷는 것 (미시간대)
6. 배운 걸 남에게 설명해보는 것 (워싱턴대)
7. 책을 꾸준히 읽는 것 (러시대)
8. 매일 조금씩 명상하는 것 (하버드)
9. 물을 자주 마시는 것 (코네티컷대)
10. 길을 직접 외워서 다니는 것 (UCL)
근데 요새 손 메모, 글을 쓰는데 정말 머리가 돌아가는 느낌이야.
진작할걸 하는 생각도 드는데~
이 중 몇 개나 하고 있어??^^
群里看到的 Codex Tip,给对话批量改名。
---
Rename the conversations in the current Codex project. Only change conversation titles. Never touch the project name.
Rules:
- Date comes from the conversation's `createdAt`, converted to Asia/Shanghai. Do not use `updatedAt`.
- Format: `MMDD|TYPE|Topic`
- TYPE must be one of these. Use the English code by default. Use the Chinese label only if I ask for Chinese.
FEA / 功能 = feature
DES / 设计 = design
FIX / 修复 = bug fix
OPT / 优化 = optimization
REL / 发布 = release
EXP / 探索 = exploration
DOC / 文档 = docs
RES / 研究 = research
- Use one language for TYPE across all titles in a run. Never mix.
- Topic summarizes what the conversation is actually about. Do not repeat the project name.
- Keep titles short and specific. They show in the sidebar.
- If you cannot tell the topic, keep the original title. Do not guess.
- Change nothing else: not the project name, conversation content, project assignment, order, pin state, or archive state.
Examples (English, the default):
Before: Improve batch text display
After: 0903|OPT|Batch text display
Before: New feature discussion
After: 0901|DES|UI alignment check
Examples (Chinese, on request):
Before: 优化批次文字显示
After: 0903|优化|批次文字显示
Before: 提交代码到 GitHub
After: 0813|发布|提交代码到GitHub
Before making any change, output only a two-column table with this exact header:
| Before | After |
Wait for my confirmation. After renaming, report only the results.
“Nothing is more boring than a man with a career. Only those who decline to scramble up the career ladder are interesting as human beings.”
— Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn