Deal on, deal off, deal "almost done". In short: same script, different week! Every Iran headline gets a knee-jerk repricing and zero follow-through. Insider trading excellence.
Warning: Longer post but worth reading or bookmarking for later
You're on the right path. No matter how you feel.
The biggest mental challenge when you're in the early years of your trading career is that you often end up comparing yourself to others.
Know that nothing will hold a mirror to your face like trading the financial markets. No career will teach you as much about yourself as trading will.
That being said: comparing yourself to other traders who are in completely different phases of their career is pointless. Every journey is unique.
You might have a different relationship with money than the next guy. You might have different resources, different personality and varying degrees of risk acceptance.
And that is completely fine.
Becoming successful trading the financial markets requires a few things...
Never stop being hungry for more knowledge: Since the markets are as vast, deep and complex as our oceans, you will never stop learning and you will never stop being a student to the game.
Never stop evolving: You have to stay on top of the process and understand that this process never stops. It means that aside from learning new things you actually have to act on what you learned.
Never stop looking forward to it: Know that your efforts are never for nothing. Even when it feels like you're not seeing the results you want. You're only not seeing them yet.
You won't become successful over night and you wouldn't even want to. Profitable traders hold that almost mythical reputation because it is far from easy to achieve that level.
But it is 100% possible. Never Quit.
Note that the US response to Ghalibaf's threats below is that Iran is three days away from "tank top," as Trump said this morning on Fox News.
This means they are running out of oil storage (because they cannot ship due to the US blockade), and shutting down oil production is extremely damaging (true).
This will prompt Iran to race to the negotiating table to secure a peace deal on US terms, keeping its oil business intact and its main source of income functioning.
However, Iran has one more "card" to play: dump 2 million barrels/day into the Persian Gulf, creating an ecological disaster?
Would they do this? See what Ghalibaf threatened below, remembering he was the "moderate" that JD Vance was negotiating with in Pakistan two weeks ago.
If Iran actually did this, would this pressure the US to call off the Blockade to get tankers in to stop the environmental damage?
Remember, they are in a war for their very survival. What wouldn't they do?
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Ghalibaf threats:
BEM(unplayed), this is the Bob el Mandeb, the chokepoint at the southern end of the Red Sea that the Houthis have been attacking for three years. He is suggesting that the Houthis are waiting for "a go" from Iran to stop shipping through it by launching drones.
+Pipelines(unplayed), this is a threat to attack the pipelines in the Middle East, like the Saudi East-West Petroline, which carries up to 7M barrels/day to Yanbu (in the Red Sea), and/or the UAE's Habshan–Fujairah Pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz to the Fujairah port in the Gulf of Oman.
Finally
More Price Adj (to come): he is betting that the longer this drags on, the higher crude oil/gasoline prices go, and American consumers will demand the US "just pack up and go home," and Iran wins.
He suggests this here ... Add summer vacation to the right unless they want to cancel it for the US!
(He means Americans have a "right" to a summer vacation unless they want to cancel it so Trump can win this war.)
Officials tells Axios that President Trump may hold off on tomorrow’s strikes against civilian infrastructure in Iran and extend the deadline for negotiations, but only if he “sees a deal is coming together,” while a defense official said they were “skeptical” there would be any extension this time for Iran.
too many people have the heuristic that
trump taco = oil prices should go down
but in reality, the real fundamental relationship underpinning all of this is
iran opens the strait of hormuz = oil prices should go down
“Trump is actually playing 5D chess by knowingly posting fake TACOs that he knows will get faded so that when the real TACO comes people short into it and ensure there’s fuel for the rally”
-real sentence someone said to me
I can tell when people don’t actually listen to Cole music cause bruh has always been this vulnerable and open. This is why he’s Cole and why he’s made it this far