J.Livermore

Commodities and Macro

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

Sell bmd march 4950. #fcpo #palmoil

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

BMD should be breaking out of the range very soon on the upside. Buckle in.

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

And all this shenanigans on spot bmd will be gone once July rolls over and with some push from macro. The moment duty levy gets triggered next bracket for sep (Aug same is done deal), there will be a sharp drawdown in Malaysia stocks.

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

Idea is to depress spot bmd hence you see the big volatility in m1/m2 trading inverse on a crash on Friday and going to full carry on the rally. Going to inverse on the crash and spot indo local cash unchanged on Friday are two big tells

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

Idea is to depress spot bmd hence you see the big volatility in m1/m2 trading inverse on a crash on Friday and going to full carry on the rally. Going to inverse on the crash and spot indo local cash unchanged on Friday are two big tells

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

Palm being premium or a very small discount to latam soybean oil this early in the year tells you all you need to know if the Palm S&D is tight or not. MPOB is irrelevant - all sort of shenanigans given dsi to keep stocks low in Indonesia.

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

Palm being premium or a very small discount to latam soybean oil this early in the year tells you all you need to know if the Palm S&D is tight or not. MPOB is irrelevant - all sort of shenanigans given dsi to keep stocks low in Indonesia.

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

@nagp_comm We close tho 🤣🙃

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

@nagp_comm From what I gather plenty was booked a month ago but at current uco cbot spreads, rd margins favour local. Only 30-50k loading in July.

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

This continue to holds true. This is not your grandfather market where you see high stocks in China to turn bearish.

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

China keeps all the Vegoil stock going into 2026 Q4 and watches the world burn in 2027🔥
Like what they did in crude oil.

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

And finally my cpo price target is 6500rm. 🙃

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

For energy -watch the Russia escalation in the EU + China crude oil buying pattern.

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

In coming weeks watch the price action in july and Aug BMD closely specially on flat price drops. That will be a huge tell.

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

Interesting game of chicken being played in palm oil in Indonesia. Refiners keep underbidding but to no avail as cpo tenders getting withdrawn often. With stocks super tight in Indonesia, these refiners are 100% betting on “peak production season”. Likely gonna get F.

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

Interesting game of chicken being played in palm oil in Indonesia. Refiners keep underbidding but to no avail as cpo tenders getting withdrawn often. With stocks super tight in Indonesia, these refiners are 100% betting on “peak production season”. Likely gonna get F.

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

China keeps all the Vegoil stock going into 2026 Q4 and watches the world burn in 2027🔥
Like what they did in crude oil.

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

@jason11thomas Indonesian palm oil billionaires take one for the country ;) national service at gun point.

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

Hormuz situation but with Indonesian palm oil with Prabowos hand on the trigger 🤣

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

Essentially what’s happening is we are destroying demand via cash basis while at the same time futures are pricing a dollar weighted average risk distribution of hormuz disruption as that futures you don’t get the delivery today.

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

And these weekly cfds are nowhere near the dated premiums as it’s all about spot urgency. If the customer doesn’t buy the oil today due to supply scarcity, doesn’t mean he will buy 2x tmr.

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

And these weekly cfds are nowhere near the dated premiums as it’s all about spot urgency. If the customer doesn’t buy the oil today due to supply scarcity, doesn’t mean he will buy 2x tmr.

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

And if you really want to talk physicals, just look at the Brent weekly cfds as that’s where the physical market is being priced in real time by major physical trading houses and producers.

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

And if you really want to talk physicals, just look at the Brent weekly cfds as that’s where the physical market is being priced in real time by major physical trading houses and producers.

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

Put yourself in the shoes of a physical trader deciding to take June Brent delivery - he is getting the oil in June loading in North Sea and likely selling the finished products a month later. How can he be sure that by July the situation will still persist, huge headline risk.

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

Put yourself in the shoes of a physical trader deciding to take June Brent delivery - he is getting the oil in June loading in North Sea and likely selling the finished products a month later. How can he be sure that by July the situation will still persist, huge headline risk.

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

A lot of talk around cash vs futures and why futures on oil isn’t reflecting reality misses the point that cash vs futures basis is where real supply disruption (and hence demand destruction) is being priced.

[J.Livermore @livermore007]

A lot of talk around cash vs futures and why futures on oil isn’t reflecting reality misses the point that cash vs futures basis is where real supply disruption (and hence demand destruction) is being priced.