LLama Research LLP

SEBI RIA · INA000018780
Clarity beats cheer. Institutional research and advice for people who want the thesis, not the tips. For portfolios of every size.

[LLama Research LLP @LLama_Research]

September argued that a fixed deposit protects the number and not what the number buys. But in what order do you actually move them? That is this session.
Next Market Action Pulse is this Saturday, 3 October, 11:30.
Register for free: https://t.co/kWW4NWuo3V

#fd #nifty #Investor

[LLama Research LLP @LLama_Research]

Today, 11:30 AM IST: MAP.
All week we did the subtraction. Best FD: 8.25%. After tax: 5.68%. After inflation: 0.86%, or -2.12% against what households report.
Today: what moves first, what waits. 60 minutes, free, with Karan Shah.
Register for free: https://t.co/kWW4NWtQen
#trend

[LLama Research LLP @LLama_Research]

China's copper smelters are squeezed from both ends.
Concentrate and scrap are both tight. Sulphuric acid, the by-product that kept smelting profitable, is down 11% in September. Seven smelters plan maintenance, cutting ~80,000 t.

Which eases first?
#Copper #Metals #China #nifty

[LLama Research LLP @LLama_Research]

@minenergybiz

[LLama Research LLP @LLama_Research]

@oguzerkan Not only Chile, China is also facing copper issues. Only that here it is refining.

[LLama Research LLP @LLama_Research]

@glocalinvestor And then there's copper supppy crunch.

[LLama Research LLP @LLama_Research]

China's refined copper output grew 10.4% in 2025. Forecasts for 2026: just 3–3.4%, the weakest since at least 2000.
Smelters can't get enough feedstock, and analysts expect a sharp Q4 drop as scrap tightens too.

Blip, or a new ceiling?

#Copper #China #Commodities

[LLama Research LLP @LLama_Research]

Market Action Pulse (MAP), live this Saturday, 3 Oct. Free.
60 minutes on sequencing: what moves first, what waits, with two worked cases.

Register for Free: https://t.co/7X45x55NuJ

[LLama Research LLP @LLama_Research]

"I have deposits. How do I move them?"
Some money belongs in an FD: EMIs, fees, the emergency fund. A lot just drifted there.

Tomorrow at MAP: 60 minutes on what moves first and what waits. Free. Link below.

What's in your FD by default?

#FixedDeposit #PersonalFinance #nifty

[LLama Research LLP @LLama_Research]

@WealthEnrich Very true. Opportunity lies when there's fear in the market.

[LLama Research LLP @LLama_Research]

Market falling streak continues. Market update- 1st Oct, 2026

#nifty #sensex #MarketTrends #crash

[LLama Research LLP @LLama_Research]

Building a #refinery in India costs 84% more than first approved.
A 9 MMT project went from ₹43,129 Cr to ₹79,459 Cr, or ₹8,829 Cr per MMT.
In a spike, the asset is the floor and the margin is the option. Do you value cyclicals on peak earnings?
#nifty #India #Infrastructure

[LLama Research LLP @LLama_Research]

In 2022, the acid price index gave back ~40% within four months of peaking.
Tight markets loosen faster than they tighten.
What breaks this squeeze first: Hormuz, export bans, pass-through or plant outages?

#Sulphur #Commodities #Chemicals #sensex

[LLama Research LLP @LLama_Research]

Market Action Pulse (MAP), live this Saturday, 3 Oct. Free.
60 minutes on sequencing: what moves first, what waits, with two worked cases.

Register for Free: https://t.co/7X45x55fFb

[LLama Research LLP @LLama_Research]

Smooth is not safe. A 20% fall in equities arrives on a date. A 3% loss of purchasing power arrives on no date at all.
No bank app ever says: "Your money bought 3% less this year."

Which risk do you actually lose sleep over?

#Investing #Risk #PersonalFinance #niftyfifty

[LLama Research LLP @LLama_Research]

@oldschoolinvest September argued that a fixed deposit protects the number and not what the number buys. Someone in the room then asked the obvious follow-up: fine, so in what order do I actually move them? That is this session.
Register for free: https://t.co/kWW4NWuo3V

[LLama Research LLP @LLama_Research]

@suritalreja September argued that a fixed deposit protects the number and not what the number buys. Someone in the room then asked the obvious follow-up: fine, so in what order do I actually move them? That is this session.
Register for free: https://t.co/kWW4NWuo3V

[LLama Research LLP @LLama_Research]

@CaVivekkhatri September argued that a fixed deposit protects the number and not what the number buys. Someone in the room then asked the obvious follow-up: fine, so in what order do I actually move them? That is this session.
Register for free: https://t.co/kWW4NWuo3V

[LLama Research LLP @LLama_Research]

@gjyadnya Very true. Looking at historical performance, the investors keep chasing new assets and new markets. Based on our analysis on different assets and markets, the ones that have recently performed generally do not continue to do so. While the underperforming assets join the rally.

[LLama Research LLP @LLama_Research]

Same record margin cycle. Very different share prices.
Large US refiners roughly doubled this year. One listed Indian refiner is down ~8% over six months.
Markets price the last 12 months. Supply shocks land in the next 3. Where else is it open?

#price #Refining #India #nifty