I spent most of last year working on regional diplomacy at the UN, and even having a sense of quiet efforts at de-escalating tensions between Iran and Gulf countries, these two statements issued in the last 24 hours are striking for several reasons. [thread]
At the 2021 Article XIV Conference of the @CTBTO, the Foreign Minister of Japan🇯🇵, Mr. Toshimitsu MOTEGI:
✳️Commended the achievements of the CTBTO
✳️Called upon all States to sign and ratify the CTBT
✳️Assured Japan’s strong support to the ES, Dr. Floyd (@_RobFloyd)
Not only is Australia getting special treatment from Biden with submarine nuclear propulsion technology, it is also getting the Tomahawk SLCM - something only the UK has managed and Israel been denied. Speaks to priority of getting more advanced shooters against China.
Curious that in a moved to shore up allied capabilities against China, first step triggers New Zealand reaffirmation of its ban on nuclear-propelled ships.
A reminder that if Biden approves nuke SLCM for US subs, it could reinvigorate “nuclear allergy” across region.
For those that don't already know it, here's the fundamental rule of power within the U.S. State Department (and the U.S. government more generally):
Regional bureaus > Functional bureaus
@james_acton32 Fueling details are still forthcoming, but it's not too hard to imagine lifetime-of-unit fueling, supply and take back provisions, or some such that won't cause the nonproliferation sky to fall. My favorite scenario is not needing to meet the regional threat at all. But we do.
Senior Trump admin national security official to me on Gen. Milley's reported secret calls to Chinese generals:
“It was dangerous for Mark Milley to be doing freelance diplomacy on China without involving any of the other senior officials dealing with China at the time..." 1/3