A Recession is a natural thing!
You cannot "outlaw recessions" - and definitely not when you use the wrong indicators.
This is "Unemployment-Population Ratio".
You don't need to be an Economists to understand what is going on.
The Economy is a supertanker. It turns slowly. But when it turns - it is visible and quite easy to forecast.
The "Unemployment-Population Ratio" is turning up. Smaller ratio of the population holds a a job.
And at some point - at a certain level - the Economy rolls backwards. That is the definition of a Recession.
Now - WHEN?
In this chart you can see, at which level previous Recessions have begun.
We are past the level for the beginning of the 2001-Recession - but not at the level of any of the previous ones. Yet!
Because - when the Supertanker turns - you don't just turn it the opposite way in no time. And the Fed is till worried about inflation (which is lagging Employment).
So - we are nice and easy on our way towards a Recession - only to be recognized 9-12 months later by the NBER.
But - we are not "there" yet. And the Markets normally celebrate the inflow of liquidity into this phase of the Business Cycle. The BlowOffTop develops right into the final phase of the Business Cycle.
Don't tell me, that you can't see it coming - even though we need to see a bit more!